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We’re down to the final four in the College Football Playoff, and it’s not your usual suspects. Of the four teams remaining (Indiana, Oregon, Ole Miss and Miami (FL)), only two have ever won a national championship. And only one of those titles came in the last 60 years (Miami in 2001).
In this preview, we’ll be going over the matchups to watch in both the run game and pass game for each offense and defense in the two semifinal contests. And of course, we’ll be predicting who will make it to the National Championship Game.
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Fiesta Bowl, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN)
The semifinals kick off on Thursday between Ole Miss and Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams are coming off of upset victories in the quarterfinal round. The Rebels took down third-seeded Georgia and the Hurricanes vanquished No. 2 Ohio State.
Miami is seeking its first National Championship Game appearance since 2002, while Ole Miss is looking for its first title game appearance in program history.
Ole Miss’ pass game against Miami’s pass defense (Dalton):Can Miami’s elite pass rush rattle Trinidad Chambliss?
Miami enters this semifinal matchup tied for the national lead with a 92.2 team PFF pass-rush grade. They also lead the nation with a 61.3% pass-rush win rate and rank third with a 39.6% pressure rate. Star edge defenders Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have combined to accrue 33 pressures and seven sacks through the Hurricanes’ first two playoff games.
Fresh off his electric display in the Rebels’ win over Georgia, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss now leads the FBS with a 79.0 PFF grade when under pressure this season. He also isn’t under pressure very often due to his swift 2.59-second average time to throw. Chambliss has been outstanding all season from within the pocket and when asked to improvise under pressure. He will face his greatest challenge yet against Miami’s elite pass rush.
Ole Miss’ run game against Miami’s run defense (Max): Can Kewan Lacy consistently generate yards after contact?
Kewan Lacy has been one of the best running backs in college football this season. His 23 rushing touchdowns are five more than any other Power Four back, while his 1,461 rushing yards are third in America. The sophomore is also third in the FBS with 88 forced missed tackles, while his 986 yards after contact place fifth.
Those last two figures are important to note in this game. Because while Lacy has been a star, he hasn’t received much help from Ole Miss’ offensive line. The Rebels’ 57.4 run-blocking grade is only 85th in the nation, while their 1.6 yards before contact per attempt figure is 74th.
It won’t get much easier for Lacy against this Miami defensive line. The Hurricanes’ front-four has a 93.3 PFF grade as a unit to go along with an 89.3 run-defense grade. Both of those figures trail only Texas Tech among all defensive lines in the country. Miami is also tied for 13th in the nation with 1.1 rushing yards before contact per attempt allowed.
Lacy will likely need to shed many tackles around the line of scrimmage in order to be successful on the ground in this game.
Miami’s pass game against Ole Miss’ pass defense (Max): Can the Rebels find a way to pressure Carson Beck?
Carson Beck has been the most difficult quarterback in America to put under pressure this year. For starters, he plays behind a fantastic offensive line that leads the nation with an 87.6 team pass-blocking grade. It’s even harder when considering that Beck’s average time to throw is just 2.35 seconds, the third-fastest in America. Combine those two factors, and you get just a 16.4% pressure rate allowed from Miami on the season, the lowest in the FBS by over five points.
On the rare occasion that Beck is pressured, his numbers take a dip. He has an 82.6 PFF grade when kept clean but just a 45.7 mark when under duress. The latter figure is just 94th in the country.
Ole Miss is just 83rd in team pass-rush grade and rarely sends a blitz, doing so just 27.2% of the time (120th). The Rebels need to cover the short and intermediate ranges of the field well and force Beck to hold onto the ball a tick longer than he’d like in order to allow their defensive line to get home.
Miami’s run game against Ole Miss’ run defense (Dalton):Miami’s offensive line vs. Ole Miss’ defensive line
Miami has used its monstrous offensive line to maul opponents in the run game all season. Led by a likely first-round pick in right tackle Francis Mauigoa, that unit ranks 15th in run-blocking grade and 31st in impact run-block percentage. The Hurricanes have racked up over 150 rushing yards in each of their two playoff matchups against excellent defenses in Texas A&M and Miami.
The Rebels quietly boast an excellent defensive line that has made plays in the run game all year. That unit ranks fourth in the FBS in run-defense grade. They also lead the nation with 140 run stops and 52 tackles for loss or no gain. Defensive tackles Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris set the tone with their ability to handle double teams and penetrate interior gaps. They’ll need to win the battle against Miami’s fierce offensive line in order to slow down Mark Fletcher Jr. and the Hurricanes’ run game.
Predictions
While Trinidad Chambliss’ heroics keep the Rebels in this game, Miami’s dominance in the trenches ultimately overwhelms Ole Miss.
The contrast in styles between these two teams make the game itself extremely difficult to pick. Trinidad Chambliss could be in the midst of a legendary run while the Rebels’ uptempo offense may provide a solution to Miami’s fierce defense. I’ll take Chambliss to get the job done one more time.
No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks (Peach Bowl, Friday, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN)
The semifinals continue on Friday with Indiana and Oregon meeting in the Peach Bowl. Both were incredibly dominant in their quarterfinal victories, as the Hoosiers dominated Alabama while the Ducks shut out Texas Tech. This game is a rematch from Week 7, when Indiana went on the road and took down Oregon by a 30-20 final score.
The Hoosiers are trying to advance to their first National Championship Game in program history, while the Ducks are trying to make it back for the first time since 2014.
Indiana’s pass game against Oregon’s pass defense (Max): Can Indiana’s offensive line hold up more in this game?
While Indiana won its first matchup with Oregon, it wasn’t the best outing from quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner’s 49.4 passing grade was his second-worst of the season, as he had no big-time throws and a bad pick-six.
The Hoosiers’ offensive line did him no favors in that game either, posting their second-worst pass-blocking grade of the season (48.3). The Ducks dialed up the blitz more than usual in that game, sending extra rushers 41.2% of the time.
It was an uncharacteristically poor performance from Mendoza under duress. His 71.4 passing grade under pressure on the season is the best among Power Four quarterbacks, while his 85.7 passing grade when blitzed is eighth in the entire nation. Indiana is hoping its red-hot quarterback will revert to those numbers in this rematch.
Indiana’s run game against Oregon’s run defense (Dalton):Will the Hoosiers find better efficiency on the ground than they did in the first matchup?
Indiana has been dominating teams on the ground all season. As a team, the Hoosiers rank ninth in the FBS in rushing grade and fourth in run-blocking grade. They are also coming off an outstanding outing versus Alabama in which they rushed for 237 yards and broke nine tackles.
However, Oregon held the Hoosiers to one of their least efficient rushing days of the season. The Hoosiers earned a season-low 59.5 rushing grade while averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in the first meeting. They struggled to work past star defensive tackles Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington and failed to gain at least 15 yards on any of their 36 carries. Oregon allows the second-lowest rate of explosive runs in the nation, so the Hoosiers will need to take advantage of the scant opportunities they will have to create them.
Oregon’s pass game against Indiana’s pass defense (Dalton):Dante Moore’s deep passing prowess vs. Indiana’s excellent secondary
Dante Moore owns the nation’s second-highest passing grade because he leads the FBS with a 98.8 passing grade on 20-plus yard targets. He also leads the nation in passing touchdowns, adjusted completion percentage and big-time throw rate when throwing deep passes.
Indiana has done a fantastic job of limiting deep completions all season. The Hoosiers held Moore to just one deep completion, his lone touchdown pass of the game, in the first matchup between these two teams. The Hoosiers own the fourth-best coverage grade in the nation when defending the deep ball and have allowed just 13 deep completions all season. The biggest question for Moore in this game is whether or not he will be able to manufacture scoring drives if Indiana takes away the deep shots he’s hit for most of the season.
Oregon’s run game against Indiana’s run defense (Max): Can the Ducks’ normally elite run game find more success against the Hoosiers?
Oregon has had one of the best rushing attacks in college football this year. The Ducks generate 0.163 EPA per run, second among Power Four schools. Their 93.8 team rushing grade is tied for the best mark in the Power Four as well. Not only does Oregon have one of the best offensive lines in America, but it also has a trio of outstanding running backs in Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr.
The Ducks failed to get much going against Indiana’s elite run defense in their first matchup, though. Their -0.139 EPA per run in that game was their third-worst mark of the season, as Oregon only ran for 116 yards. It was also the only game all year where the Ducks failed to rush for a touchdown.
Oregon’s backs need to do a better job of breaking tackles in the Peach Bowl, as they combined for just three forced missed tackles on 24 attempts.
Predictions
In a game that should come down to the wire, Indiana once again takes down Oregon and moves one step away from the program’s first national championship.
Both defenses played well in the first game, so both quarterbacks will be tasked with bouncing back to better production. Indiana doesn’t seem to have any legitimate weaknesses at the moment and it continues to prove why it is the top-ranked team in the nation.