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Estimated Reading Time:16 minutes
We're diving into every matchup in the divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs — including key storylines, matchups to watch, and injury news. The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos kick things off on Saturday afternoon.
Click here to jump to a game:
BUF@DEN | SF@SEA | HOU@NE | LAR@CHI
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. Denver Broncos [Total: 46.5]
Storyline of the game: Will the Broncos' offense be good enough in the playoffs?
The Broncos’ defense has always been the star of the show in Denver, making life increasingly tough for opposing offenses and penning them in — while the Broncos’ offense does just enough to get the job done. The offense has had some big moments, but its down-to-down consistency leaves a lot to be desired. The Broncos are 25th in success rate in 2025, and that just won’t fly in the playoffs.
The Bills’ defense allowed a 53.6% success rate against the Jaguars in the wild-card round, and could be a unit that can be taken advantage of. A good offense can do that, but the Broncos are still trying to prove they can be just that. Quarterback Bo Nix (75.2 grade; 17th) and Co. have to step up on the big stage.
Matchup to watch: Bills’ run game vs. Broncos run defense
The Bills’ offense is a unit that can hurt you in multiple ways, but their modus operandi is running the ball down your throat. Their 90.8 PFF rushing grade leads the NFL, and James Cook (82.4 grade; 10th) led the league with 1,621 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. They struggled to run the ball consistently against the Jaguars in the wild-card round, earning a 44.4% rushing success rate — their seventh-lowest of the season — and face a Broncos defense well-equipped to stop the run.
The Broncos’ 76.7 PFF run-defense grade was fifth in the regular season, and they were top five in EPA per play and rushing success rate allowed. Denver yielded a rushing success rate of over 40% in just three games in 2025. If the Broncos can shut down the Bills’ run game and force Josh Allen (90.5 grade; 3rd) to carry the load, they’ll be in a favorable spot.
Betting Trends
The Broncos are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games and enter their first home playoff game since 2015 as 1.5-point underdogs. They’re 2-0 this season as home underdogs, with wins against the Packers and Chiefs, and face an uphill battle against one of the NFL’s best offenses.
The Bills won their first-ever road playoff game of the Josh Allen era with a 27-24 victory against the Jaguars in the wild-card round. They’ve had mixed results when covering on the road, and are 5-4 ATS away from home in 2025.
Bills QB Josh Allen Anytime TD (-114)
Allen has been the ultimate force multiplier in recent playoff history. He earned a 94.0 overall PFF grade while scoring three total touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card round.
In the last three seasons, Allen has 48 total rushing touchdowns, and seven rushing scores in the postseason. If the Bills get inside the 5-yard line, that’s Allen territory, and there aren’t many defenses that can slow him down.
Additional News
- Bills WRs Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers both suffered torn ACLs in the wild-card round and are out for the rest of the season.
- The Bills activated DI Ed Oliver (leg) off injured reserve. He is questionable.
- Broncos LB Dre Greenlaw (leg) is questionable but is likely to play.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) [Total: 45.5]
Storyline of the game: Will the Seahawks repeat their Week 18 dominance?
The Seahawks and 49ers have a storied rivalry that stretches back years, and we’ll get another chapter of that rivalry in the divisional round. The two teams split their regular-season matchups, with the 49ers winning the opening game of the season and the Seahawks claiming the Week 18 showdown to clinch the top seed in the NFC and the NFC West title. The performance in that game from the Seahawks’ defense could have a significant bearing on the outcome of this one.
The Seahawks’ defense allowed a 33.3% success rate against the 49ers in Week 18 — their third-best performance of the year — in the 13-3 win, holding a 49ers offense that had been firing on all cylinders to just 179 total yards. The pass rush got after 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (87.1 grade; 6th), pressuring him on 46.9% of his dropbacks. Also, Seattle completely neutralized Christian McCaffrey (77.2 grade; 18th) on the ground, holding him to 23 rushing yards and six catches for 34 yards.
Matchup to watch: 49ers’ run defense vs. Seahawks’ run game
The 49ers will likely be without linebacker Fred Warner (93.2 grade; 1st) for one more week, with the All-Pro aiming for a potential NFC title game return — if the 49ers get there. However, they could desperately use Warner against the Seahawks' run game, especially considering how their Week 18 matchup played out.
The Seahawks’ run game has been inconsistent for most of the season, but it made an impact against the 49ers in Week 18. Kenneth Walker (88.4 grade; 2nd) and Zach Charbonnet (86.7 grade; 3rd) combined for 171 rushing yards and a touchdown on 33 carries. Walker and Charbonnet added six rushes of 10 yards or more, and three rushes of 15-plus yards. Those explosive plays ripped open an already wounded 49ers defense that has earned a 44.5 PFF run-defense grade in 2025, 31st in the NFL.
Betting Trends
The Seahawks have won seven straight games heading into the NFC divisional round and are favored ATS for the 15th time this season — plus, for the eighth time in a row. Despite that, they have just a 42.5% chance of covering the spread as 7.5-point favorites.
The 49ers have been excellent ATS in the last eight games, covering seven times. The only time they didn’t do so was as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Seahawks in Week 18. They’ve reached the spread on the road in seven of their nine road games this season.
49ers TE Jake Tonges Over 4.5 receptions (+130)
The news that tight end George Kittle (90.7 grade; 1st) tore his Achilles against the Eagles and will miss the rest of the postseason — and longer — comes as a huge blow for a beaten-up 49ers offense. Jake Tonges (74.5 grade; 12th) stepped in with Kittle sidelined earlier in the season, catching 35 passes for 307 yards and five touchdowns on the season.
With the rushing game more than likely stonewalled by the Seahawks’ defense and the 49ers potentially playing from behind, the San Francisco passing game is going to have to carry a significant weight. Tonges caught just one of three targets against the Eagles, but hauled in seven passes for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Bears in Week 17 on an 86.7 overall PFF grade.
Additional News
- 49ers LB Fred Warner (leg) has been back in practice but is unlikely to return before the NFC Championship Game.
- 49ers TE George Kittle suffered a torn Achilles vs. the Eagles.
- Seahawks EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (leg) is questionable.
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Mock Draft Simulator 2026 NFL Draft Big Board Big Board Builder NCAA Premium Stats SubscribeHouston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-3) [Total: 41]
Storyline of the game: Can the Texans’ defense suffocate another offense?
Out of every offense and defense left in the postseason, the Texans’ defense might be the best. The unit has been offense-killers all season, ranking second in EPA per play and second in success rate allowed in the regular season while posting an 83.0 PFF defense grade — third-highest in the NFL. The Texans carried that head of steam into the wild-card round to crush the Steelers 30-6, allowing a 31.6% success rate. They face a different test against the Patriots’ offense in the divisional.
The Patriots willed themselves to victory against the Chargers, with Drake Maye (89.6 grade; 4th) completing just 58.6% of his passes — his second-lowest completion percentage of the season — for 268 yards, a touchdown and an interception on a 64.4 overall PFF grade. The Chargers' defense is a good unit, and the Patriots struggled. How will they fare against the best defense in the NFL?
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rush vs. Patriots QB Drake Maye
The Texans’ not-so-secret weapon on defense is just lining up and letting their stars win their individual battles. Talent is abundant on the defensive side of the ball, and it starts up front with edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. (92.5 grade; 2nd) and Danielle Hunter (89.9 grade; 5th). The pairing combined for 11 pressures and two sacks against the Steelers, while the Houston defense pressured Aaron Rodgers (68.0 grade; 31st) on 43.2% of his dropbacks.
The Patriots have compiled a 73.5 PFF pass-blocking grade in 2025, the fifth-highest in the NFL, although Maye has been pressured on 37.8% of his dropbacks — 15th-most in the NFL. Maye has been good when pressured, registering a 64.2 overall grade, but has the sixth-highest average time to throw (3.11) in the NFL. At times, that’s led to him holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks. The Texans’ front will look to take advantage of that.
Betting Trends
The Texans have now won 10 games in a row and are 7-3 ATS throughout that run. They open the game as 3-point road underdogs, and are 4-3 ATS as underdogs in 2025. They also have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread.
The Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and are favorites against the spread for the second consecutive game at home. They’ve won four straight contests and are 13-5 ATS in 2025, plus 7-2 in their last nine games. They’ve also hit the points over in five of their last six matchups.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry Over 3.5 receptions (-112)
Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (76.4 grade; 10th) has been a consistent feature of the Patriots’ passing game in 2025, catching 60 passes for a career-high 768 yards and seven touchdowns — securing his highest PFF grade since 2017. Henry’s connection with Maye has been key to the team’s offensive breakout, with Henry flashing his abilities after the catch — averaging a career-high 5.6 yards after the catch per reception.
Since Week 11, Henry has an 82.1 overall PFF grade and has tallied 33 catches, the eighth-most among tight ends. Henry has caught at least four passes in five of those games.
Additional News
- Texans WR Nico Collins (head) is questionable after suffering a concussion vs. the Steelers.
- Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (head) is also questionable after suffering a concussion vs. the Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs. Chicago Bears [Total: 51]
Storyline of the game: Two of the NFL’s top offenses will battle it out
The Rams and Bears have been exciting to watch all season. Both offenses finished the season top-10 in EPA per play and success rate, with the Rams concluding first in both categories.
Though the Rams’ defense is one of the better defenses in the NFL, it will still have a tough time against a Bears offense that runs the ball better than most teams in the NFL. As part of the Ben Johnson Effect, the Bears are first in rushing EPA per play, and their 89.5 PFF rushing grade is fourth in the NFL.
The Rams have been an all-around impressive unit. QB Matthew Stafford (92.9 grade; 1st) has had one of the best seasons of his career and is flanked by, arguably, the best receiver in the NFL right now in WR Puka Nacua (96.1 grade; 1st). Points will be on the menu in this game.
Matchup to watch: Rams’ defensive line vs. Bears’ offensive line
A major reason the Bears’ offense has improved in 2025 has been the offensive line. The front office revamped the unit, bringing in G Joe Thuney (78.7 grade; 6th), G Jonah Jackson (70.7 grade; 22nd), and C Drew Dalman (75.5 grade; 7th) in the offseason, and their efforts have been rewarded. The Bears are sixth in PFF pass blocking grade and third in PFF run blocking grade, and the Bears have been one of the top rushing teams in the NFL because of that physicality up front.
The Rams’ defensive front will look to thwart the Bears' ability to run the ball consistently. They’ve allowed a 37.3% rushing success rate on the season, and are stacked with talent on the defensive line. DI Poona Ford (88.7 grade; 3rd) has quietly been one of the NFL’s best free agent pick-ups, clogging up rushing lanes, and the duo of ED Jared Verse (84.3 grade; 10th) and ED Byron Young (85.6 grade; 9th) have combined for 55 run stops.
Betting Trends
The Rams enter the game as 4-point favorites on the road after failing to cover the spread as 10-point favorites on the road against the Panthers in the Wildcard Round. They’re 5-3 ATS when favored on the road, and the Rams are 8-6 against the spread in the Sean McVay era. The over in points total has hit for the Rams in seven consecutive games.
The Bears are home underdogs for the fourth time this season, and are 2-1 ATS in those positions. They were 1.5-point underdogs against the Packers in the Wildcard game, and will look to repeat that same success, albeit in a tougher matchup.
Rams TE Colby Parkinson Over 2.5 receptions (+108)
The Rams’ offense has been unstoppable in 2025. The Stafford and Nacua connection is among the best in the league. WR Davante Adams (84.2 grade; 10th) has caught more touchdowns than any other receiver in the regular season, and yet Sean McVay has still found a way to consistently get his tight ends involved in the passing game, namely TE Colby Parkinson (74.0 grade; 14th).
Parkinson has had a career year in 2025, catching 45 passes for 442 yards and nine touchdowns, and even with veteran TE Tyler Higbee (68.3 grade; 23rd) back in the fold after missing a large chunk of the season due to injury, Parkinson is still earning a lot of action in the passing game. Since Week 10, he’s caught more than two passes in seven separate games.
Additional News
- Rams G Kevin Dotson (leg) is questionable after missing the wild-card win vs. the Panthers.
- The Bears placed LB T.J. Edwards (leg) and T Ozzy Trapilo (leg) on IR.