- Jake Ferguson is touchdown-dependent behind an elite target hog: Ferguson's per-route grade cratered last season, and with a healthy CeeDee Lamb commanding targets, he's a low-end starter likely to finish outside the top 12 unless the scores come.
- Dallas Goedert is a lock for touchdown regression: Goedert posted career-worst efficiency at 30 and only stayed relevant on a historically unrepeatable touchdown total, so with rookie Eli Stowers looming, his end-zone luck running dry would leave him a bye-week fill-in.
Many fantasy managers fall into the trap of assuming a quality veteran player will repeat their fantasy production the following season. However, there can be many reasons for a player to decline, such as changes to the offense or if they had some unstable statistics last season but are expected to regress to the mean.
All three of these tight ends have posted big games, but those have typically come when they faced little competition for targets. This season, each will have plenty of it.
The average draft position listed is a consensus from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Friday, July 24