2026 NFL Draft: Worst-case scenario for all AFC teams

The NFL draft is the most important part of any team’s offseason, regardless of how well or poorly their previous season went. Not surprisingly, the teams that are consistently contending year after year are the ones that have the most success in the draft.

Last week, we looked at the 16 AFC teams and analyzed their best-case scenarios when it comes to the 2026 NFL Draft. We’ll focus on the AFC once again with worst-case scenarios in the draft. Every team will be explored relative to their draft ammo and current roster construction.

Baltimore Ravens

Worst-case scenario: Unable to find at least one starting-caliber interior OL

The Baltimore Ravens’ offensive line took a big step backward in 2025, finishing 28th in PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating (82.8) while allowing 155 pressures for the season. The guards were the primary weakness, finishing the season with a cumulative 52.1 PFF run-blocking grade (27th in the NFL). 

To make matters worse, Baltimore's best offensive lineman, center Tyler Linderbaum, joined the Raiders in free agency. The interior offensive line is a major priority heading into the draft, and finding at least one starting-caliber player in the trenches will be key.

Buffalo Bills

Worst-case scenario: Fail to prioritize defensive needs early in the draft

Buffalo addressed a major need by acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore in a trade with the Chicago Bears. He will immediately slot in as Josh Allen’s WR1 in 2026. Bills wide receivers ranked 29th in the NFL in PFF receiving grade against man coverage in 2025, a ranking that should improve with Moore in the fold.

With the wide receiver unit improved, Buffalo should focus on building up a defense that ranked outside the top 20 in PFF grade this season. They’ll need a pass rusher opposite Greg Rousseau with Joey Bosa set to hit free agency. The linebacker unit didn’t have one qualified player earn a PFF overall grade higher than 56.1. And there are questions in the backend, with Jordan Poyer, Damar Hamlin and Darnell Savage all testing free agency.  

The Bills have a new defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard, and it’ll be important to add playmakers to the unit for a team with Super Bowl-or-bust expectations.

Cincinnati Bengals

Worst-case scenario: Trenches aren’t a priority early in the draft

The Bengals have some star power, but they are weak in both trenches. Cincinnati finished 26th in both PFF pass-blocking grade (61.1) and PFF run-blocking grade (55.8) this past season.

The defensive line — which also ranked 26th in the NFL — is likely to lose All-Pro edge Trey Hendrickson and will be in desperate need of a pass rusher in this year’s draft. The Bengals would be wise to target the defensive line early in the draft at 10th overall and look to find some depth for the offensive line at some point on Day 2.

Cleveland Browns

Worst-case scenario: Don’t draft an OL in the first round

The Browns’ offensive line finished last in PFF pass-blocking grade this past season (49.7), and six of the team's linemen (three starters) are set to hit free agency. They did acquire Tytus Howard, a versatile player who made starts at left guard, right guard and right tackle in 2025 and ranked in the top 20 at his position in PFF pass-blocking grade, from the Houston Texans in exchange for a fifth-round pick

Howard is a good start for the offensive line rebuild, but the work is far from done. Cleveland has the luxury of two first-round picks (Nos. 6 and 24) stemming from their trade last draft with the Jacksonville Jaguars involving Travis Hunter. 

The team has other notable roster holes (particularly at wide receiver), but history has shown that it is easier to find wide receiver talent later in the draft. The same cannot be said for the offensive line. With this in mind, it would be a major disappointment if Cleveland did not come away with an offensive lineman in the first round.

Denver Broncos

Worst-case scenario: Unable to upgrade the tight end unit

Although the Broncos have a strong roster overall, tight end remains a need. Denver's tight ends recorded an NFL-worst 52.8 PFF receiving grade in 2025. Evan Engram, who is coming off a disappointing year in which he ranked 57th out of 75 qualifying tight ends with a 56.9 PFF overall grade, is entering the last year of his contract and will be 32 years old when the 2026 season begins.

The Broncos have one of the league’s best offensive lines and a promising young quarterback but would benefit from adding a versatile chess piece or a “Joker” player. Kenyon Sadiq from Oregon and Eli Stowers from Vanderbilt are two tight end prospects to keep an eye on. Denver is expected to be a strong contender in 2026, and adding a player of their caliber could be what ultimately gets the franchise over the hump in a competitive AFC.

Houston Texans

Worst-case scenario: Don’t prioritize rebuilding OL early in the draft

The Texans revamped their offensive line this season, which produced inconsistent results. The outlook for the unit got more complex prior to free agency, as the team traded Tytus Howard to the Cleveland Browns, and then Juice Scruggs to the Detroit Lions.

The Howard trade is interesting when you consider he was the team’s best and most versatile offensive lineman this past season. He started games at left guard, right guard and right tackle and earned a career-high 69.5 PFF overall grade. Additionally, Howard’s 76.7 PFF pass-blocking grade was the highest on the team and ranked him among the top 20 tackles in the NFL.

The Texans need to address their front five early in the draft and should look to select the top available offensive lineman on the board when they are on the clock in the first round.

Indianapolis Colts

Worst-case scenario: Fail to add depth to the defensive line

2025 first-round pick Laiatu Latu has the look of a potential future All-Pro, as he ranked among the top 10 edge defenders in PFF overall grade in just his second season. Latu and veteran DeForest Buckner were the only two players on Indianapolis' defensive line who earned at least a 65.0 PFF overall grade this past season, signaling a clear area of need for the team come draft day.

The Colts traded their first-round pick to acquire cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets, so shoring up their roster becomes more challenging this offseason. General manager Chris Ballard recently stated that there is a good chance they’ll trade back to acquire more picks, which makes sense. Defensive line figures to be a top priority for Ballard and company, regardless of how many picks they end up with.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Worst-case scenario: Drafting a running back in the second round 

Running back Travis Etienne is set to hit the market as PFF’s 15th-ranked free agent and should garner significant interest, making it unlikely he returns to the Jaguars in 2026. Jacksonville traded its first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in a draft-day deal involving two-way player Travis Hunter last year, so the team won’t be officially on the clock until the second round at 56th overall.

The Jaguars drafted two running backs last year, including Bhayshul Tuten, who looked good in his limited playing time, averaging 3.31 yards after contact per attempt across 87 attempts (including the playoffs). It seems logical that Tuten will grow into an expanded role in his second year with the team.

Despite having just one selection in the top 80, the Jaguars have stockpiled draft picks in the middle and late rounds, holding 11 picks in total. Running back is a position they should target later in the draft to shore up their unit, but they have more pressing needs on defense to address first.

Kansas City Chiefs

Worst-case scenario: Inability to add explosiveness to the offense

The Chiefs' offense took a significant step back this season compared to their Super Bowl years. Their lack of explosiveness stands out the most, as they ranked tied for 20th in explosive runs and 15th in explosive pass plays in 2025.

Kansas City’s running back unit ranked 31st in yards after contact this season. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco are set to hit free agency, although the team shored up its room by signing top free agent Kenneth Walker III.

The Chiefs’ offense needs a new dimension to help take pressure off quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is recovering from a torn ACL and likely won’t be 100% when the season begins.

Las Vegas Raiders

Worst-case scenario: Fail to add a starting caliber OL on Day 2

The one thing we can almost say for certain about the 2026 NFL Draft is that the Raiders will select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. While Las Vegas has some strong building blocks on offense in tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty, the offensive line is among the league’s worst.

Las Vegas’ offensive line allowed 47 sacks this past season, 12 more than any other team during the regular season. The unit’s PFF 79.3 pass-blocking efficiency rating also ranked dead last in the NFL. With that said, the team lost Kolton Miller — one of the league’s top left tackles — for most of the year due to injury. He will provide an immediate boost upon his return in 2026, as will new free-agent signing Tyler Linderbaum.

The Raiders, despite having holes across their roster, need to prioritize protecting their franchise quarterback and opt for an offensive lineman with their second- or third-round pick.

Los Angeles Chargers

Worst-case scenario: Team ends draft with lingering interior OL questions

On paper, the Chargers were set to field one of the NFL's top offensive lines heading into the 2025 season. Unfortunately, no team was hit harder by injuries along the offensive line, as standout Rashawn Slater missed the entire season and Joe Alt was out for all but six games. As a result, Los Angeles allowed pressure on 37% of dropbacks (the highest rate in the league) and garnered the NFL’s lowest PFF pass-blocking grade (47.6).

While Slater and Alt are expected back in 2026, the interior offensive line is a major concern that will require a complete revamp. Center Bradley Bozeman announced his retirement in February, and the team recently released right guard Mekhi Becton. Additionally, former first-round pick Zion Johnson is set to hit free agency, creating another potential hole at left guard.

Justin Herbert is one of the league’s top quarterbacks and now has the luxury of working with offensive guru Mike McDaniel, the Chargers' new offensive coordinator. It would be shocking if the Chargers did not prioritize rebuilding their interior offensive line early in this year’s draft to keep Herbert upright.

Miami Dolphins

Worst-case scenario: Trading up in the first round

With a new head coach, general manager and quarterback in 2026, it’s clear that the Miami Dolphins are in a full rebuild. The organization currently has five picks in the top 90, with the potential for more in the coming weeks should they part with other players via trade.

Aside from running back, you can make a case that the Dolphins could use help at almost every position. With that in mind, it makes sense for the team to take a “best player available” approach throughout the draft to build the strongest roster possible. 

What doesn’t make sense for the Dolphins is to trade up in the draft, particularly in the first round when the price is the steepest. Last year, Miami traded the Nos. 48, 98 and 135 picks to move up and select guard Jonah Savaiinaea at No. 37 overall, and Savaiinaea was the lowest-graded offensive lineman in the NFL last year (28.4).

The Dolphins' path to a rebuild becomes more challenging should they trade away picks in the first year of the new regime.

New England Patriots

Worst-case scenario: Fail to upgrade the edge unit

The Patriots have a strong, disciplined defense under head coach Mike Vrabel that ranked in the top 10 this past season and excelled in coverage (90.0 PFF coverage grade, first in NFL). Improving the edge unit is a priority moving forward, as the group ranked 18th in PFF pass-rush grade (68.9) and 21st in sack rate (5.8%).

K'Lavon Chaisson was the team’s most productive pass rusher, leading the way in pressures during the regular season (58) and ranking second in the playoffs (20). If Chaisson leaves in free agency, it would make addressing the edge unit an even bigger priority.

New York Jets

Worst-case scenario: Don’t prioritize building up the defense

One of the most intriguing storylines leading up to the draft is what the Jets will do with the second overall pick. There is no clear top quarterback prospect behind presumed No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, so the organization will be tasked with figuring out which direction to go there.

The defense needs a complete rebuild after the front office traded away All-Pros Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams during the 2025 season, two moves that could pay huge dividends in the long run, as no team has more draft ammo than the Jets over the next few years. 

It seems like a near certainty that New York will target a defensive player with the second pick, which is not a surprise when looking at the PFF Predictive Big Board. New York will be back on the clock at No. 16 overall and could potentially get two defensive studs, depending on how the board falls.

A new defensive identity is crucial for the Jets heading into 2026, something that needs to start in the first round of this year’s draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Worst-case scenario: Fail to address the WR unit in the draft

It is not clear if future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers will return for one more season, but regardless, the Steelers need to improve their wide receiver unit heading into 2026. Pittsburgh's wide receivers ranked just 29th in PFF receiving grade in 2025, and the unit lacked any true consistent threat in the passing game beyond D.K. Metcalf (73.1 PFF receiving grade).

In terms of production, Metcalf was the only Steelers wide receiver to account for at least 35 receptions, 375 receiving yards and four touchdowns this past season. Pittsburgh not only needs a strong WR2 alongside Metcalf, but also depth at the position in general, making it priority number one for the organization heading into the draft.

Tennessee Titans

Worst-case scenario: Unable to surround QB Cam Ward with skill-position talent 

The Titans got solid production from rookies Elic Ayomanor (41 receptions, 515 yards), Chimere Dike (48 receptions, 423 yards) and Gunnar Helm (44 receptions, 357 yards) in 2025, but they need a true WR1 to help No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward in his second season. 

Running back is another position Tennessee would be wise to target in this year’s draft. Tony Pollard is entering the last year of his contract and has seen his PFF overall grade steadily decline over the past few years after peaking at 90.2 in 2022. Backup running back Tyjae Spears is also set to hit free agency in 2027 when his rookie contract is up.

Defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh is now at the helm, and while it would not be a surprise to see the Titans go defense with their fourth overall pick, they must focus on the offensive side of the ball on day two and three to build around their franchise quarterback.