Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but they are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to change that, using early-game efficiency, player usage and matchup context to identify the most actionable scoring opportunities each week.
TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Using the new First Touchdown Finder, we can evaluate the first touchdown market from a more target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Broncos defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in targets, yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. Henry also leads the Patriots in first-half red-zone targets, which further elevates his likelihood of finding the end zone first.
At +950, Henry to score the first touchdown stands out as a value play.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Walker ranks second among running backs in forced missed tackles this season. This is an area where the Rams’ defense has struggled, as the team ranks ninth in missed-tackle rate. That matchup becomes even more compelling given recent changes to Seattle’s backfield.
With bruising back Zach Charbonnet sidelined by an ACL injury, Walker is now positioned to handle the clear majority of the workload. Charbonnet had accounted for much of Seattle’s red-zone usage, opportunities that should now shift heavily toward Walker.
In a favorable matchup and with an expanded role, Walker is well-positioned to score in this championship game.
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