Here are our top SGP picks for the divisional round, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.
QB Jarrett Stidham operates efficiently within an excellent Broncos offense
With Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back and healthy, this New England Patriots defense is again built to funnel opposing offenses toward the pass behind one of the strongest run defenses in the NFL. Over the first half of the season, when both were available, New England ranked in the top five in rush EPA allowed and success rate allowed. When both were sidelined over the back half of the season, the unit fell into the bottom five in those same metrics.
That dominance has returned in the playoffs. With Williams and Spillane back in the lineup, the Patriots have held Kimani Vidal and Woody Marks well below 3.0 yards per carry, looking much like the elite run defense from the season’s opening months.
That profile should force the Denver Broncos to lean even more heavily into the pass, something the Broncos already do at a top-five rate in pass over expectation. Even so, this Patriots defense finished the season ranked 15th in dropback success rate allowed, 11th in yards per dropback and 10th in EPA per play despite facing nearly 60% of its snaps against backup quarterbacks. When adjusted for opponent quality, the unit graded closer to league average.
There is limited data on Jarrett Stidham, but enough context here to begin identifying potential areas of value.
Let’s start with the baseline numbers. Stidham has been capable of generating yardage — an important factor for yardage-based bets — while grading slightly below league average by PFF standards. He is not a long-term starter, but he has shown the ability to move the ball and operate at a serviceable level.
Where Stidham has been most effective is when his protection holds up. When kept clean, he has shown the ability to execute efficiently and win within structure.
Over the course of his career, Stidham has faced a lower-than-average rate of perfectly blocked dropbacks, but his efficiency spikes when protection holds up. In those situations, he has performed well above league average — even surpassing Bo Nix.
That makes this transition particularly notable: No quarterback has benefited from more perfect blocks than Nix this season, and Denver leads the NFL in perfect block rate. With strong offensive line play in front of him, this sets up an opportunity to see Stidham at his best.
From a betting perspective, these markets hinge on the relationship between Stidham exceeding expectations and Denver outperforming the spread. Given the expected passing volume and a matchup against an elite run defense, success through the air would signal the Broncos generating offensive value relative to market expectations.
In that game script — with Denver moving the ball effectively and its defense limiting Drake Maye — opportunities also emerge for Maye to scramble on dropbacks against a Broncos defense that leans heavily on man coverage. That dynamic fits cleanly into a scenario where Denver builds a lead, drives offense through the pass and creates correlated value across the board.
SGP Builds
Build 1: 16-1
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 280+ passing yards
- Denver Broncos: Moneyline (16-1)
Build 2: 130-1
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 280+ passing yards
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 33+ attempts
- Denver Broncos: -3.5
- QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 40+ rushing yards
WR Jordan Whittington breaks out from the slot against the Seahawks defense
Over the back half of the season, the Rams have shifted from heavy 12-personnel usage to a more 11-personnel-driven offense, with three-receiver sets now serving as their most common formation.
One of the primary beneficiaries of that shift has been Jordan Whittington, who has emerged as the clear No. 3 wide receiver and has played 22 more snaps than Xavier Smith.
Whittington has consistently created separation for the Rams, even if that has not fully translated into production yet, as evidenced by his modest 1.02 yards per route run. He operates as a hybrid tight end–wide receiver, running the majority of his routes from the slot and working primarily underneath with an average depth of target of 6.5 yards.
That role could become increasingly important against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the fewest total receiving yards to wide receivers overall but has been more vulnerable from the slot, surrendering the fifth-most targets and 10th-most yards to slot receivers.
While Puka Nacua remains capable of beating any coverage and will continue to command targets, the Rams’ increased reliance on 11 personnel should keep Whittington on the field far more than earlier in the season, setting up a favorable spot for a potential usage spike.
If Whittington delivers in this matchup, it is more likely to come through steady volume rather than explosive plays.
SGP Build
- WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: 60+ receiving yards
- WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: 4+ receptions
- WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: Anytime touchdown