Battle for the centre

The Euro Zone

Despite the pressure that Vox will exert on Moreno, he doesn’t need to enter a coalition. A confidence-and-supply arrangement could be sufficient thinks columnist Mark Nayler

Mark Nayler

Juanma Moreno has some difficult decisions to make. Though Andalucía's unassuming PP president renewed his mandate in last weekend's vote, his loss of a majority will bring Vox knocking at the door. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP's national leader, also has some thinking to do ahead of next year's general election. Both leaders face the same fundamental question : tack to the right, or stay in the centre?

Despite the pressure that Vox will exert on Moreno, he doesn't need to enter a coalition. A confidence-and-supply arrangement could be sufficient, as the PP leader is so close to a majority anyway. Moreno's more centrist policies might even be backed by the PSOE, rendering Vox's votes unnecessary. An informal setup, though potentially unstable, would at least create some ideological space between the Conservatives and Vox, which would prove crucial if Feijóo decides to pursue a centrist stance ahead of 2027's national vote.

One might object to this on the grounds that an ad-hoc voting agreement is not secure enough - that what Moreno really needs to govern is a formal coalition. But that wouldn't guarantee a stable leadership either, especially with a partner as volatile as Vox. Like a moody teenager, Santiago Abascal's party is liable to storm out of a regional government if the PP does anything with which it disagrees at the national level. That's exactly what happened in 2024, when Vox quit five regional coalitions in opposition to the PP's backing of Pedro Sánchez's immigration policies.

Speaking of immigration, it is over precisely this issue that Moreno has a chance to carve out a strong position for himself. Criticism of Vox's "Spaniards first" proposal regarding access to public services was a central message of his campaign; yet as the PP enters coalitions with Vox in Extremadura and Aragon, it faces the unsavoury prospect of having to endorse this zenophobic policy. Moreno could become known for saying "No" to Vox, even if it pushes him closer to the PSOE than some of his voters might like.

That, surely, would be better than following the example set by María Guardiola, the PP president of Extremadura. After coming second in 2023's vote, Guardiola vowed to keep Vox out of power: "I can't allow... those who are dehumanising immigrants... into government," she said. But a few weeks later, she was governing alongside her right wing enemies.

The Socialists' poor performance in the last few regional elections suggest that there are a lot of centrist voters throughout Spain who are fed up with the Sánchez Show. The PP's best chance of success in next year's general election is to try and hoover them up. In order to do that, it will have to keep a safe distance from Vox. Perhaps Moreno can show Feijóo how that's done.