We’ve finally made it to conference championship weekend in the NFL, with the Denver Broncos hosting the New England Patriots in the AFC title game and the Los Angeles Rams heading to face the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC championship.
As always, we’re here with our best bets for the weekend — but this time, we’re doing it with help from a brand-new tool. This week marks the launch of PFF’s First Touchdown Finder Report, a new betting resource designed to help bettors make more informed first touchdown scorer decisions using early-game efficiency, usage trends and red-zone context.
The First Touchdown Finder is built similarly to the PFF Player Props tool, allowing users to filter by game, position, price, and more, while highlighting team-level early-scoring edges and player-level opportunities. You can read more about how the tool works in our full First Touchdown Finder breakdown, then follow along below as we use it to identify some of the best first touchdown bets for championship weekend.
AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Broncos
WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots: +1100 to score the first touchdown
Among all teams playing this weekend, New England holds the largest EPA per play advantage on the first 15 offensive snaps. Those scripted plays are where first touchdowns most often occur, and the Patriots have consistently started games faster than Denver this season.
Diggs stands out as the top early-game option within that context. He owns the third-highest adjusted target rate among all receivers playing this weekend — a metric that looks at targets per aimed pass, removing sacks, scrambles, spikes, throwaways and batted passes to better capture true involvement. In short, when the Patriots are throwing early, Diggs is heavily involved.
He also matches up well against Denver’s defensive tendencies. Diggs ranks top 10 in yards per route run against man coverage, and the Broncos have played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season. At +1100, Diggs offers a strong blend of early usage, matchup fit and price.
TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots: +1000 to score the first touchdown
The Broncos finished 17th in touchdowns allowed, 26th in yards allowed and 24th in receptions allowed to tight ends this season. That weakness showed up again last week, when Dalton Kincaid caught six passes for 83 yards and a score against them in the divisional round.
Henry’s role becomes even more pronounced near the goal line. He leads the Patriots with 11 first-half red-zone targets, including 10 against the blitz, more than double any other New England player. That usage is especially notable against a Denver defense that ranks fifth in red-zone blitz rate.
When the Patriots face pressure in the red zone, Henry has been one of the primary answers — and at +1000, he presents a compelling alternative or complement to Diggs.
NFC Championship: Rams vs. Seahawks
WR Konata Mumpfield, Los Angeles Rams: +10000 to score the first touchdown
If you’re swinging for a true long shot, this is the profile to look for.
Unlike the AFC title game, the Rams and Seahawks are much closer in terms of early-game efficiency, with both teams performing well on scripted plays. In those situations, value often comes from targeting the underdog.
Mumpfield checks several boxes that the First Touchdown Finder looks for. While his overall red-zone usage is modest, he ran a route on six of the Rams’ eight red-zone dropbacks last week and has seen four first-half red-zone targets this season. That’s meaningful involvement for a player priced at 100-1.
The Rams have also been pass-heavy early in the red zone, ranking sixth in first-half red zone pass rate this season. Mumpfield has already scored the first touchdown in a game this year, and his skill set offers a logical “tendency-breaker” option in a high-leverage spot.
At +10000, this is exactly the type of early-usage long shot worth considering.
TE Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams: +2000 to score the first touchdown
If you prefer a more grounded option in the NFC title game, Colby Parkinson stands out.
The Rams have used more 13 personnel (three tight ends) plays than any team in the NFL this season, and while they leaned away from that look briefly last week, Parkinson has remained their primary tight end. He has logged more first-15-play snaps this postseason than any other Rams tight end, even with Tyler Higbee active.
Parkinson’s red-zone role is elite. He leads the team with seven red-zone touchdowns, owns a 44% red-zone target rate and has seen 14 first-half red zone targets — second-most in this matchup behind Davante Adams.
Seattle has struggled to defend tight ends, ranking 28th in receptions allowed to the position, and Parkinson’s usage profile makes him a strong candidate to capitalize if the Rams strike early.