- Houston–Texas Tech: The Cougars and Red Raiders try to establish themselves as the top team in the Big 12.
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Week 2 of college football lived up to the hype and then some. No. 1 Ohio State-No. 4 Texas was an instant classic, while both No. 6 Oregon and No. 11 Oklahoma lost to unranked teams.
Week 3 of college football could be even better. There are three games between ranked teams this weekend, the most we’ve had all season. That includes a top-10 showdown between LSU and Ole Miss, where Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin is making his much-anticipated return to Oxford.
Here are PFF’s previews for the five biggest games of Week 3.
No. 7 LSU Tigers at No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Lane Kiffin, Public Enemy No. 1
Saturday night’s showdown between LSU and Ole Miss isn’t just the best game on paper; it also has the juiciest storylines of any matchup we’ll see all season. That’s all because of one man: Lane Kiffin.
Kiffin spent six seasons as Ole Miss’ head coach and lifted the program to heights it hadn’t seen in over 60 years. He won at least 10 games in four of his final five campaigns there, a mark that the Rebels have only hit seven other times. Ole Miss was 11-1 last season and clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time, but Kiffin left the program before the playoff even began to take over the vacant LSU job in what ended up as a very messy divorce.
Kiffin now returns to Oxford, Miss. on the opposing sidelines and will surely hear how upset he made Rebels fans on Saturday night.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Max): Trinidad Chambliss against one of the best pass defenses in America
Trinidad Chambliss has picked up right where he left off from his breakout campaign last season. He threw for 337 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a win over No. 24 Louisville in Week 1 before posting an elite 92% adjusted completion rate against Charlotte in Week 2. Chambliss has been especially potent under pressure, posting a higher PFF grade there than when he’s kept clean (84.6 to 84.2).
That last figure is especially important, because LSU leads the nation with a 58.1% pressure rate this season. Ole Miss transfer Princewill Umanmielen has ironically been the star of the show, as his five sacks are tied for the most in America. The Tigers couple that pass rush with an elite secondary, currently leading all FBS schools with a 91.9 team PFF coverage grade.
Expect defensive coordinator Blake Baker to try to rattle Chambliss with exotic blitz packages as well. Last year, LSU ran a blitz at a top-20 rate in the country (46.9%). While Chambliss is elite against a four-man rush (17th with 10.4 yards per attempt), he’s far more average when defenses send extra rushers his way (80th with 7.4 yards per attempt).
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Dalton): LSU’s explosive passing attack vs. Ole Miss’ suspect pass defense
Quarterback Sam Leavitt and a deep arsenal of weapons have gotten off to a raging start despite Leavitt’s penchant for interceptions. The Tigers’ 358 passing yards per game and 20 explosive passes both rank among the top five teams in the FBS. Leavitt, along with wide receivers Eugene Wilson III and Winston Watkins Jr. as well as tight end Trey’Dez Green, could expose a struggling Ole Miss pass defense.
Through two games, Ole Miss has recorded the 10th-worst team PFF coverage grade in the FBS. The Rebels also rank 120th in the nation allowing 8.4 yards per attempt and have surrendered 11 explosive passes over the past two weeks.
Tackling has also been an issue for the Rebels. They missed nine tackles on pass plays in their narrow Week 1 victory over Louisville. Ole Miss will need its back seven to play a cleaner game in order to hold down the Tigers’ lethal aerial attack.
Predictions
This game could end up as a high-scoring affair. However, I trust LSU’s red-hot defense to come up with more stops than an Ole Miss defense that looked vulnerable against Louisville.
The legend of Trinidad Chambliss continues to grow as Ole Miss scores an upset victory in the ultimate revenge game.
No. 22 Houston Cougars at No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (Friday, 8 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Two of the Big 12’s best square off
Friday night’s game between Houston and Texas Tech will help reveal who truly stands atop the conference right now. The Red Raiders are currently the second-highest-ranked team from the Big 12 at No. 13 in the AP poll, while the Cougars are fourth at No. 22. They both trail BYU, who’s currently No. 11. The winner of this game has a great chance at leapfrogging the Cougars and becoming the new highest-ranked team in the conference.
While neither has begun conference play yet, both Texas Tech and Houston do share a common opponent: Oregon State. The Cougars beat the Beavers in Week 1 by a 33-20 final score, while the Red Raiders won 35-24 in Week 2.
Matchup to watch when Houston has the ball (Max): Houston’s offensive line against Texas Tech’s defensive line
Houston’s offensive line was a major issue last season. The Cougars were 99th in yards before contact per attempt (1.4) and 97th in pressure rate allowed (34.9%). But after adding three great transfers to that unit (guard Shadre Hurst, center Anthony Boswell and tackle Drew Terrill), Houston is performing far better up front. The Cougars are currently 23rd in yards before contact per attempt (2.5) and 53rd in pressure rate allowed (24.1%).
Meanwhile, Texas Tech has gone from the best defensive line in America in 2025 to a far more average one thus far this season. The Red Raiders are just 53rd in yards before contact per attempt allowed (0.9) and 85th in pressure rate (28.6%). Last year, Texas Tech was top-15 in both categories. It should be noted though, that edge defender Trey White has yet to play this season due to a knee injury, but he’s a game-time decision Friday night.
Considering Houston is 11th in run rate and quarterback Conner Weigman has historically had issues under pressure, whoever wins in the trenches on Friday night has a strong chance of pulling off the victory.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Dalton): Texas Tech’s struggling run game vs. Houston’s stout run defense
Despite boasting an experienced offensive line and a deep running back unit, Texas Tech has struggled to run the ball so far this season. While they own the nation’s 13th-best PFF run-blocking grade, the Red Raiders have recorded the 13th-worst PFF rushing grade as a team. Texas Tech also ranks outside the top 100 FBS teams in yards per carry, excluding sacks, and explosive run rate.
That lack of explosiveness has permeated throughout the offense. Quarterback Will Hammond doesn’t seem as explosive on the ground as he did last year and has taken just four carries this season. Texas Tech will need to find some sort of spark against a Houston defense that has allowed just 69 rushing yards across its first two games.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 31, Houston 21
Both teams have had sluggish starts to their respective seasons. But, I believe Texas Tech will remind everyone why it was the overwhelming favorite in the Big 12 by beating Houston by multiple scores.
Dalton: Houston 20, Texas Tech 17
The first early-season Big 12 twist occurs as the Cougars take down the Red Raiders in a defensive slugfest.
No. 16 SMU Mustangs at No. 23 Louisville Cardinals (3:30 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Who’s next in the ACC after Miami?
It’s pretty obvious that Miami (FL) is the best team in the ACC right now. The Hurricanes are ranked fifth in the latest AP poll, 11 spots higher than any other school in the conference. The Hurricanes are currently -220 to win the conference on DraftKings Sportsbook, the heaviest conference favorite in America.
Even if Miami steamrolls the conference like many expect, finishing in second place could still mean securing a College Football Playoff spot. Since SMU and Louisville are the next-highest-ranked teams in the conference, the winner of this game should be seen as the biggest threat to the Hurricanes in the ACC.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): Can the Mustangs keep Kevin Jennings clean?
Kevin Jennings is one of the better quarterbacks in college football, but there’s a pretty drastic difference in his effectiveness from a clean pocket versus when he’s pressured.
Kevin Jennings passing by situation in his career
SituationCompletion %TD/INTKept Clean71.2%36/14Under pressure50.2%21/12Those 12 interceptions under pressure are two more than any other Power Four quarterback during that span. Luckily for Jennings, SMU’s offensive line has done a terrific job of limiting the times he’s under duress. The Mustangs are currently 24th in pressure rate allowed (12%) this year and entered the season with our No. 4 offensive line in the country.
But, the Mustangs will have their hands full with Louisville, who checked in with our No. 8 defensive line in the sport. That’s mainly due to the dynamic duo of edge rushers that the Cardinals have in Clev Lubin and AJ Green. Lubin’s 23.8% pass-rush win rate since 2025 leads all active Power Four players, while Green is fourth with a 21.4% pass-rush win rate.
The spotlight on Saturday will be on tackles PJ Williams and Andrew Chamblee as they try to protect their star quarterback, though Williams has yet to surrender a pressure all season.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Dalton): Can Lincoln Kienholz continue his hot streak?
Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is the biggest variable that will determine the Cardinals’ success this season. After a jittery first half in Week 1 against Ole Miss, he has found his groove. Over his last five quarters of play, Kienholz has accounted for 593 passing yards, 106 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns. He earned an excellent 83.9 PFF passing grade in Louisville’s blowout win over Villanova last week.
Kienholz will be opposed by an SMU defense that has allowed just 5.0 yards per attempt, the 17th-lowest mark in the nation, and two passing touchdowns so far this year. Players like slot cornerback Jarvis Lee and defensive tackle Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder, who leads all interior defenders with 10 pressures, stand out as the stars of SMU’s pass defense so far. Kienholz will need to be at the top of his game in order to overcome the Mustangs’ stout unit.
Predictions
Max: Louisville 28, SMU 27
In a game that should go down to the wire, the Cardinals are able to get enough pressure on Kevin Jennings while relying on their electric stable of running backs to carry them to a home victory.
Dalton: Louisville 31, SMU 28
The two quarterbacks are the X-factors here, but Lincoln Kienholz has shown that he may be capable of handling a high-pressure situation like this game.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Kentucky finish the job this week?
Kentucky initially had No. 12 Alabama on the ropes last week, leading the Crimson Tide until midway through the third quarter. But the Wildcats were outscored 32-0 in the second half and ended up losing at home by a 45-17 final score.
Kentucky once again has a top-15 opponent on the docket this week, this time traveling to ninth-ranked Texas A&M. Like Alabama, the Aggies were in a dogfight this past week with Arizona State before outscoring the Sun Devils 24-0 in the fourth quarter to pull out the win.
Matchup to watch when Kentucky has the ball (Max): How serious is Kentucky’s quarterback problem?
To say Kenny Minchey has struggled in his first two games as Kentucky’s quarterback would be an understatement. His 25% uncatchable pass rate ranks 102nd in the FBS, with zero big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays. His 47.3 PFF grade is the sixth-worst of any quarterback in the nation thus far.
Minchey must now face a Texas A&M defense that’s been one of the best in the country against opposing quarterbacks. The Aggies are fourth in EPA per pass allowed (-0.468) and had two pick-sixes this past week against Arizona State. If Minchey doesn’t turn the corner quickly, Mike Elko’s defense could have a field day with him.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Can Kentucky slow down Marcel Reed’s play-action dominance?
Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed has been one of the best play-action passers in the nation since the start of last season. Among quarterbacks with at least 75 play-action dropbacks in that span, Reed’s 90.2 PFF passing grade is the sixth-best mark in the country. He’s thrown 17 touchdowns and just one interception when utilizing play action, which is a stark contrast from the 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions he’s thrown on standard dropbacks.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats have struggled to contain play action passes over the past year-plus. Their 49.7 PFF coverage grade against play action passes ranks 96th in the FBS while their 9.2 yards per attempt given up on such passes ranks 113th. It is imperative that Kentucky forces Reed and the Aggies into standard passing situations in order to avoid their lethal play-action attack.
Predictions
Max: Texas A&M 34, Kentucky 14
Minchey’s struggles continue against Texas A&M, while Kentucky has problems keeping up with the Aggies’ talented pass-catchers.
Dalton: Texas A&M 27, Kentucky 10
Texas A&M’s defense dominates again as Kenny Minchey struggles to find any consistent production downfield.
Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can the Seminoles pull off a miracle again?
This is the second year in a row that Florida State and Alabama will meet. Entering last season’s Week 1 matchup, these two programs were on drastically different trajectories. The Crimson Tide were the No. 8 team in the preseason AP poll, while the Seminoles were coming off their worst record in half a century (2-10).
And yet, it was Florida State that emerged victorious in a rainy Tallahassee afternoon, winning 31-17 despite being 20.5-point underdogs. The Seminoles could use another upset like that, especially considering they just fired athletic director Michael Alford and head coach Mike Norvell is on the hot seat himself.
Matchup to watch when Florida State has the ball (Max): Can the Seminoles get anything going on the ground?
Ashton Daniels has had his fair share of issues as a passer this season for Florida State. The Auburn transfer’s 69.8% adjusted completion rate is currently just 97th in the FBS. Instead, the Seminoles have been relying on Daniels and Ousmane Kromah on the ground. Kromah’s 183 yards after contact are tied for third in the nation, while Daniels ran for 85 yards and a touchdown in Florida State’s three-point loss to SMU in Week 1.
The issue for Florida State is that Alabama has stonewalled opposing ground games this year. The Crimson Tide are second in the FBS in EPA per run allowed (-0.529) and 14th in yards per carry allowed (2.8). Kentucky only averaged 3.4 yards per carry against Alabama this past week, which forced Minchey to throw into an Alabama secondary that entered the season as our No. 2 unit in the country. The Crimson Tide shut out the Wildcats in the second half of that game, something that could happen to the Seminoles if they can’t get their own rushing attack going.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Can Florida State find any semblance of a pass rush?
Through two games, Florida State has struggled mightily to affect opposing quarterbacks in the pocket. Its 22.1% pressure rate ranks 117th out of the 138 FBS teams. The Seminoles have tallied just two sacks this season while allowing the highest third-down conversion rate in the Power Four at 58.1%.
They’ll need to figure out a way to pressure Alabama’s young quarterback, Keelon Russell. Russell is a terrific athlete who can make plays outside the pocket, but he also holds the ball for an average of 3.14 seconds, the 14th-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks. Alabama’s offensive line is also banged up, so if the Seminoles don’t find a pass rush this week, they may not for the rest of the season.
Predictions
Max: Alabama 31, Florida State 17
The Crimson Tide’s defense leads the way in this game as Alabama exacts revenge on Florida State for last year’s upset.
Dalton: Alabama 42, Florida State 17
Keelon Russell and the Crimson Tide avenge last year’s loss in a big way as the Seminoles’ struggles continue.