Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.
In this space, we’ll work in the opposite direction. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.
The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome.
New York Jets to get the better of the Tennessee Titans in Week 1
Let's start, as we always do in this piece, by examining the team fundamentals to establish a baseline for our analysis.
The Tennessee Titans are slight home favorites in this matchup, although the market has moved toward the Jets in recent weeks. Last season, earned drive points — a measure of how well teams earned their points based on the sustainability and reproducibility of their drives — painted an important picture of both teams.
The Titans and Jets occupied their own corner at the bottom of the league, with the Jets holding the advantage offensively. Both teams have undergone significant changes since then, however, and Brady Cook’s 2025 numbers for the Jets aren’t necessarily the best predictor of what comes next.
That uncertainty creates two tails I want to attack. The first is that Geno Smith’s 2025 performance, particularly in the context of this matchup, proves less indicative of his current level of play than his previous seasons. Second, much of the optimism surrounding Tennessee — and its status as the favorite here — depends on Cam Ward taking a meaningful step forward. That development is far from guaranteed.
For games with this much uncertainty, I like to ask where the market would move if the same matchup were played three or four weeks from now with additional information. In this case, I think the most plausible repricing is toward the Jets, with New York eventually viewed as a clear favorite over Tennessee.
Is Geno Smith washed?
Geno Smith was a slightly above-average quarterback throughout his time as Seattle’s starter before his performance fell off dramatically with Las Vegas in 2025.
In some ways, that contrast captures the unusually wide range of outcomes for Smith entering this season. It wouldn’t be surprising if his 2025 decline continues and the wheels begin to come off for a 35-year-old quarterback. But there are also reasons for optimism — and reasons to believe last season was more of an outlier created by the situation in Las Vegas than the beginning of an irreversible decline.
Breaking Smith’s performance down by disruption (when early pressure knocks a quarterback off his read) helps explain where things went wrong. When the offense kept him clean and on schedule, Smith remained his usual above-average self. His performance cratered when plays broke down and he was forced to create.
Looking back at his career averages, Smith’s production when undisturbed stayed largely the same, while his EPA against disruption tanked.
Part of that can be attributed to declining mobility, with Smith’s extension time on disruption plays falling from 1.5 seconds in 2022 and 2023 to only 1.0 second in 2025. But what was equally troubling for Smith — and a major reason his play really tanked — was the disruption rate itself. That figure skyrocketed to 52%, with only Jacoby Brissett and Shedeur Sanders posting higher rates.
Part of that falls on a quarterback’s ability to process, but part of it also came from a horrific offensive line and poor wide receiver room.
In particular, Geno Smith saw one of the lowest perfect-block rates last season. Perfect blocks are plays when no blocker makes a mistake, and because pass protection operates as a weak-link system, one mistake often results in direct pressure.
Smith was wholly unable to overcome those breakdowns last season, ranking last in the NFL in EPA on those plays.
But life should be better for Smith with Olumuyiwa Fashanu and Armand Membou at tackle, both of whom ranked among the top 25 at the position in pass-blocking grade. And as former first-round picks entering Years 3 and 2, respectively, there is reason to expect further development, particularly at a position that tends to take more time to develop.
Likewise, no other starter on the offensive line ranked below the 50th percentile in pass blocking. That should mean more plays with better protection for Smith, helping him avoid the disruption and blocking mistakes that he struggled with last season.
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Matchup Angles
Now, Smith gets a matchup with a Titans defense that last season ranked fourth-worst in disruption rate and near the bottom of the league in forcing blocking mistakes. Tennessee made some additions along the interior, but it also lost T'Vondre Sweat, who ranked fifth out of 127 qualifying defensive tackles in PFF grade last season.
The point is that Smith should have far more time in this matchup to play within the system and avoid disruption. And if the majority of his plays come within structure, I think Smith and the Jets offense are badly mispriced as the offense with the fourth-lowest team total on the slate.
On the flip side, Titans quarterback Cam Ward has not shown much to suggest he can be a terrific NFL quarterback. That isn't to say he can't become one, but while the market has built in some projection for improvement, plenty of probability remains on the other side. Few long-term NFL starters have emerged after playing as poorly as Ward did in Year 1.
Even after improving in nearly every measure over his rookie year, Ward still finished in the bottom percentile in most metrics, with a massive sack rate and destroy rate while failing to generate many positive outcomes. He also posted poor PFF grades and fared poorly in yards per drive and EPA per play. Ward didn't take a significant leap over the course of the season, either, remaining a relatively flat, struggling player throughout.
Looking at the trendline, this could be a quarterback who is out of a job by the end of the year. Or, framed through the question from earlier, if we replayed this matchup a month from now, there is a serious possibility that we would rate this offense far worse than we do today, with Ward still playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
Now, he gets a matchup with a Jets defense that plays heavy man coverage, where Ward struggled last season to the tune of -0.26 EPA per play, fourth-worst in the NFL. Individual talent matters more in man coverage than it does in zone, and the Titans don't have an obvious matchup advantage here. Carnell Tate relies on his ability at the catch point, while Brandon Stephens has been one of the better cornerbacks at the catch point.
The other Titans receivers also couldn't generate much separation or production against man coverage. And while the Jets' secondary might be attackable going forward, this isn't a spot where Tennessee's wide receivers have the matchup advantage that is so important against man coverage.
Add it all up, and we have a spot where I think both offenses could look very different from the current market expectations. The Jets have one of the lowest team totals on the slate despite facing a bottom defense, while the Titans have a middling team total even though I'm not sure this offense will be able to take advantage of favorable opposing matchups.
Those are the tails we want to be playing early in the season, when there is still significant uncertainty around what these teams actually are.