Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, focusing on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
Let us begin by examining the team fundamentals to establish a baseline for our analysis.
The Jaguars have paired a strong defense with an average offense this season, while the Bills have fielded one of the league’s best offenses alongside a middling defense by most efficiency measures.
Viewed from a full-season perspective, that profile would suggest Buffalo as the slightly better team on a neutral field, with Jacksonville’s home-field advantage making a pick’em spread reasonable.
The more relevant question, however, is which sample deserves the most weight. Over the second half of the season, the Jaguars offense has taken a clear step forward, ranking sixth in EPA per play and fourth in points per drive, driven largely by a passing attack that ranks third in EPA per play and second in dropback success rate. That improvement matters in this matchup, particularly against a Bills run defense that ranks third-worst in EPA per rush allowed.
More importantly, Jacksonville’s offensive surge does not appear fluky. The shift traces back to the bye week and the arrival of Jakobi Meyers, signaling a philosophical change rather than random variance.
Through the first 10 weeks, the Jaguars threw deep on roughly 8% of attempts. Since Week 11, they have dipped below a 15% deep-throw rate just once, with Trevor Lawrence settling into a range between 18% and 20%.
Lawrence has thrived with that approach, generating more than one expected point per deep attempt and producing an offense far better aligned with his historical strengths. When viewed in that context, the Jaguars now stack up closely with Buffalo offensively, creating value on the spread.
Matchup angles
Digging into the matchup, this sets up as a spot where the Jaguars defense is well-positioned to slow down the Bills offense. Over the full season, Jacksonville has fielded a dominant run defense, ranking inside the top five in both EPA per rush and run success rate.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on the run, posting the eighth-highest run rate over expectation in the NFL, a tendency that plays directly into the Jaguars’ strengths.
The Bills have leaned on an offensive system built around generating yards after the catch on shorter throws, but that approach runs directly into a Jaguars strength. Jacksonville ranks second in the NFL in limiting yards after the catch allowed to receivers.
That dynamic becomes even more notable when layered with the possibility of Josh Allen being limited, further reducing Buffalo’s margin for error against a defense designed to close quickly and tackle well.
The chart illustrates how long quarterbacks extend plays once pressure arrives and how far downfield they throw on those extensions. Allen sits at the bottom of both measures, highlighting how central play extension has been to generating explosive throws in Buffalo’s offense. While the chart is more stylistic and process-driven than results-based — and relatively stable week to week — it underscores how the Bills push the ball downfield primarily on Allen-created plays.
Since suffering his injury against the Browns, however, Allen has averaged roughly one second of play extension and has been unable to consistently attack downfield in those situations. While it is possible the injury has healed or his approach shifts in the postseason, his reliance on play extension is so foundational that if those extensions remain limited, a critical component of his effectiveness is diminished.
As the data shows, Allen has been solid from clean pockets and especially effective under pressure, ranking second only to Patrick Mahomes in EPA per play in those situations. That strength is tested against a Jaguars defense that excels at tackling and defending quick passes, ranking first in the NFL in EPA allowed on quick throws. That matchup is notable given Allen’s quick-pass rate spiked to a season-high 55% in Week 17 against the Eagles.
All of this could be rendered moot if Allen is fully healthy, but when paired with an underpriced Jacksonville side and the possibility that the market is not fully accounting for Allen’s injury and its downstream effects, this shapes up as an appealing spot to back the Jaguars.