- DeVonta Smith is the new top target in Philadelphia: The Philadelphia Eagles traded A.J. Brown this offseason, and now Smith will be able to line up where he plays his best football more frequently.
- Tucker Kraft could emerge as the Green Bay Packers’ No. 1 option: Although Kraft is recovering from an ACL tear, the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks should lead to an increased target share in Green Bay once he returns.
Finding value is about more than identifying talented players. It requires pinpointing situations where talent, opportunity and cost align. These five players check all three boxes and have the potential to dramatically outperform their current ADPs in 2026.
ADP listed is a consensus from ESPN, Yahoo! and Sleeper.
Last updated: Monday, July 13
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 2.09)
Brown ranked 10th among running backs in fantasy points per game in 2024 and seventh in 2025, and there is little reason to expect a significant change in 2026.
He benefits from playing in a high-scoring offense where defenses are primarily focused on containing Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Brown ranked seventh among running backs in carries against light boxes while seeing far fewer opportunities against stacked fronts, making his job consistently easier on the ground.
He is also heavily involved in the passing game, ranking third among running backs in first-read targets over the past two seasons and second in checkdown targets. When Burrow extends plays, Brown is among the most frequently targeted options, tied with Samaje Perine.
Cincinnati made no significant changes to its backfield in free agency, retaining Perine, Tahj Brooks, Gary Brightwell and Kendall Milton. The most notable offensive change was the departure of rotational tight end Noah Fant, though Erick All Jr. is expected to return from injury and fill that role again.
The key variable for Brown is Burrow's health. When Burrow returned from injury in Weeks 13 through 18 last season, Brown averaged 22.3 PPR points per game, second-best among running backs in that stretch, and did so without breaking a run longer than 25 yards. If both stay healthy, Brown has a realistic path to finishing as a top-five fantasy running back.
WR A.J. Brown, New England Patriots (ADP: 3.04)
One year ago, we released our wide receiver rankings ahead of the 2025 season and placed Brown at No. 1, driven largely by his dominance against single coverage. He followed that up with a relative decline in production, as a lower percentage of his targets were catchable, his contested catch rate dipped and his yards after the catch per reception also declined.
There has been speculation that frustration, rather than declining ability, drove that quieter season. Philadelphia's rushing attack was so effective that several victories required very little involvement from Brown. In 2024, he caught one pass for 10 yards in the Eagles' wild-card win, two passes for 14 yards in the divisional round and three receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. That trend carried into 2025, when Brown opened the season with one catch for 8 yards in Philadelphia's Week 1 victory and was held below 50 receiving yards in six additional victories throughout the year.
In June, Brown was traded to the New England Patriots, where he reunited with head coach Mike Vrabel and is the clear top skill player on the roster. Philadelphia generated below-average production from its wide receiver group last season, while New England ranked fifth in receiving yards by wide receivers (2,945) despite lacking a true elite option at the position.
Brown owns a 12.8-yard average depth of target over the last three seasons, the most among the top-10 wide receivers by PFF grade. His new quarterback, Drake Maye, was the fourth-most accurate on passes of 13 or more yards at 49.7% last season, while Jalen Hurts ranked third-lowest among the top 30 quarterbacks at 36.8%. Brown should not only be a bigger part of the Patriots' offense, but also more effective per target as well.
If Brown's quieter 2025 season stemmed primarily from situational annoyance rather than physical decline, he still has the ceiling for an elite fantasy campaign in New England. If it instead marked the beginning of a broader downturn, fantasy managers could be in for a disappointing year.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 4.02)
Smith has been a dependable fantasy starter during his time in the NFL, averaging at least 3.5 receptions and 50 receiving yards per game throughout his career. He's ranked among the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy points per game in each of the last four seasons despite being the second option in the Eagles’ offense behind A.J. Brown.
Smith has consistently graded between a 78.0 and 84.0 each season, putting him in the range of a great, but not elite, receiver. That's culminated in an 89.4 career overall PFF grade, slotting 20th among wide receivers over the last five seasons. Because career grades reward sustained performance over larger samples, his sits above any single season's mark. That is particularly impressive considering Smith’s career 20.5% target rate, tied for third-lowest among those 20 receivers.
Smith has played more in the slot over the last two years than in his first three, but has improved most out wide. He posted an 89.9 PFF receiving grade out wide in 2025 with a 25.3% target rate. Smith also achieved 2.95 yards per route run when lined up out wide last season, tied for third-best behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Meanwhile, Smith’s grades in the slot have deteriorated over time.
The Eagles traded away Brown and lost Jahan Dotson in free agency while adding Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown and Dontayvion Wicks. Lemon will primarily be a slot receiver, while both Brown and Wicks have played inside at times in their careers. We should see a significant shift toward Smith playing out wide rather than in the slot. The departure of Brown should help Smith's target rate.
Smith's ability to be a top-five or top-10 fantasy wide receiver will somewhat depend on the Eagles' ability to rebound as a team, but given the talent on the unit, that is a decent bet to make. At worst, his floor will be higher with the elevated target rate, making him an even safer starting fantasy option.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 6.11)
Kraft was one of the NFL's most efficient tight ends in 2024. The problem was volume.
His 9.3 yards per target led all tight ends by a wide margin, a full 1.5 yards ahead of the next-closest player. Packers coaches clearly recognized the need to involve him more entering 2025, and his target rate climbed from 14.5% to 19.1%. Rather than losing efficiency with the increased workload, Kraft somehow became even more dangerous after the catch. His 10.8 yards after the catch per reception was the highest by any tight end with at least 25 targets in PFF's 20 years of charting.
Before suffering a season-ending ACL injury, Kraft averaged 14.7 PPR points per game, tying Brock Bowers and George Kittle for the second-highest mark at the position. ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently reported that Green Bay believes Kraft could be ready for Week 1. Even if he is active early in the season, he could need time to return to full strength.
The encouraging part for fantasy managers is that Kraft may not need historic efficiency to improve his production. Even after a breakout season, his target rate still ranked just 19th among tight ends with at least 25 targets last year. That number could climb further given Green Bay's offseason changes.
Romeo Doubs, last season's team leader in targets, is no longer on the roster, and Dontayvion Wicks, who ranked third, is also gone. Green Bay did not spend a draft pick on a skill-position player. Skyy Moore was its lone free-agent addition at wide receiver, likely brought in more for special teams value than offensive production. That leaves a significant opportunity for the returning pass-catchers.
For fantasy purposes, a slight dip in efficiency paired with a larger workload would still be a favorable tradeoff. Kraft's recovery will remain worth monitoring throughout the offseason, but if he returns to full health, he has a realistic path to finishing as a top-three fantasy tight end in 2026.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 8.06)
Lawrence spent four years as the Jaguars' starter to mixed results, with some stretches where he looked like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback and others where he played like a backup. In 2022 and 2023, his fantasy production made him a high-end backup. But in 2024, his passing yards per game fell by more than 45 amid lower volume, and then an injury cut his season short.
He became a top sleeper quarterback in 2025 after the Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach and drafted Travis Hunter with the second overall pick to pair with Brian Thomas Jr., who mostly excelled after Lawrence's injury. Lawrence finished fourth in fantasy points and sixth in points per game at 20.6, though that owed more to his connection with Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange than to Thomas and Hunter. Lawrence also set career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
Some regression in Lawrence’s nine rushing touchdowns is reasonable to expect, but his overall outlook should be similar to last season. Lawrence will have all five of his receivers available at once, allowing for a rotation and no single player for a defense to key on.
That should make Lawrence a top-10 option again, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10 since there are several quarterbacks to feel good about this season. That makes him a strong value at his current ADP.