Fantasy Football: Evaluating 2025 IDP defensive line sacks vs. expected

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It’s easy at the end of each NFL season to look at where players ranked in fantasy football, but understanding why they finished where they did is often more important when projecting for the future.

For the defensive line, sacks are a huge part of IDP success. Knowing which pass rushers delivered in that regard — and, more importantly, which ones didn’t — can help identify potential positive regression candidates for the following season. By the same rationale, players who over-delivered in 2025 sacks could be regression candidates for 2026.

All expected sack numbers are derived from a player’s playing time (pass-rush snaps) and a combination of all pass-rush metrics. Average pass-rush metrics come from three-year averages in PFF pass-rush grade, win rate and pressure rate.

Understanding the importance of tracking this data is also important, as expected sacks has proven to be the most stable metric from year to year, more so than any other key pass-rush metric. The expected sacks number is also the best indicator of future sacks, as it has translated to actual sacks better than any other metric, including playing time, as highlighted in the charts below.

EDGE DEFENDERS

With this in mind, here are the 2025 edge defender leaders in expected sacks. These players are the best bets to lead the position in actual sacks in 2026:

Players of note:

Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions: We highlighted Hutchinson last year after he was on a league-leading pace in expected sacks, although his season was cut short due to injury. As expected, Hutchinson’s return to full health put him right back at the front of the pack in expected sacks, thanks to elite pass-rush metrics and the largest workload of any player at his position. With Hutchinson still in the prime of his NFL career, that workload and expected sack total should translate into another elite IDP season in 2026, assuming he stays healthy.

Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns: It’s no surprise that Garrett delivered more sacks over expected than any other player in the league after he broke the sack record this season. While Garrett will almost certainly experience some sack regression in 2026, he’s still likely to be among the league leaders in that regard after finishing in the top 97th percentile in expected sacks for the fifth consecutive season.

Micah Parsons, Green Bay Packers: A torn ACL cut short Parsons’ first season in Green Bay, although he still placed in the 98th percentile in expected sacks per game, giving him his fourth consecutive season of cracking the top 97th percentile. Parsons will be a great bet to return to form in 2026 once he’s fully recovered from his injury, just as Hutchinson bounced back this season. 

Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts: Latu’s rookie year was overshadowed by Jared Verse, but both players came in below their expected sack totals in 2024 and were great bets to improve in 2025. Latu made leaps across the board, moving from the 84th percentile as a rookie in expected sacks to the elite 92nd percentile this year, and ultimately recorded nine sacks. Latu’s high-end playing time and improved pass-rush metrics are a great sign for his IDP potential.

Abdul Carter, New York Giants: For the second straight season, the edge position’s greatest underperformer in the sack column was a rookie. Carter was stuck with just a half-sack for the first 12 weeks of the season before stringing together a four-game sack streak and beginning his first stretch of positive sack regression. Considering Carter’s impressive 93rd-percentile mark in expected sacks as a rookie, he is a great bet to produce in Year 2, and potentially beyond.

Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars: Hines-Allen underperformed in the sack column for the second consecutive year, but he has finished in the 97th percentile in expected sacks since 2023 as one of the league’s elite pass rushers. Hines-Allen has reached just eight sacks in back-to-back seasons, although that shouldn’t be viewed in a negative light when projecting him for 2026, especially considering our stable metrics highlighted above. He’ll remain a top IDP option for the position, potentially set to greatly improve upon his actual sack total.

George Karlaftis, Kansas City Chiefs: Karlaftis set career highs in PFF overall grade, PFF pass-rush grade and expected sacks rank, although he finished with his lowest sack total since his rookie year. Karlaftis has ranked in the 90th percentile in expected sacks in each of the past two seasons, mostly due to high-end playing time. He increased that mark to the 95th percentile this year and is one of the prime positive sack-regression candidates heading into 2026, should he remain on that pace.

Jaelan Phillips, Philadelphia Eagles: Phillips has been plagued by injury over the past two seasons. Prior to that, he was one of the top positive sack regression candidates coming out of the 2022 NFL season, just as he is at the end of this season. Before getting injured in 2023, Phillips was well on pace to deliver on his improved sack totals, having notched 6.5 sacks in just eight games. Assuming he’s healthy in 2026, Phillips is a strong bet to outperform his 2025 sack total by a decent amount and a good IDP option to acquire at a discount this offseason or in drafts next season.

Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams: Verse was the top positive sack-regression candidates coming out of last season, and while he did improve his production in that regard, he remains a great bet for even more positive regression after the 2025 campaign. For the second straight season, Verse’s expected sack totals have reached double digits. While he’s yet to get there in his NFL career, it’s only a matter of time before that becomes the norm for him.

Brian Burns, New York Giants: While Abdul Carter was among the biggest underachievers in the sack column this year, his Giants teammate Burns was one of the league’s top overachievers. Burns’ playing time and pass-rush metrics were not significantly better than in previous seasons, and he actually earned a PFF pass-rush grade slightly below his career norm. He also dropped from the 96th percentile in expected sacks last year — for which he more than delivered on in 2025 — to just the 85th percentile this year. That’s still a strong mark, but it doesn't align with 16.5 sacks, as he’s likely to come back down to earth in 2026.

James Pearce Jr., Atlanta Falcons: Pearce delivered 10 sacks in his final nine games of the 2025 season after managing just a half-sack in his previous eight games. Unfortunately, that 10.5-sack total will be difficult to repeat in 2026, even with improved playing time. His 62nd-percentile rank in expected sacks makes one of the league’s biggest overachievers at the position. While Pearce remains a strong long-term bet as a pass rusher, it’s more than likely he won’t top his rookie-year sack totals in year two. IDP managers should be wary about over-investing this offseason.

Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos: Bonitto has delivered double-digit sacks for his IDP managers two years in a row, ranking among the greatest overachievers in the sack column in both seasons. While Bonitto has ranked in at least the 89th percentile in expected sacks in back-to-back years, his risk for regression is high. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him come in under 10 sacks in 2026, knowing the volatility of that stat.

Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings: Much like Nik Bonitto, Van Ginkel was a potential regression candidate heading into 2025. While he certainly regressed from his 2024 totals, his 24th-percentile mark in expected sacks points to much lower potential production than his seven actual sacks would indicate. IDP expectations should continue to be tempered for Van Ginkel heading into 2026.

The top-30 list of over- and underachievers in the sack column in 2025 can be found below. The column highlighting sacks versus expected indicates the top candidates for positive (right) and negative (left) sack regression heading into 2026.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

Much like the edge position, stable metrics for interior defensive linemen are led by expected sacks when looking at year-to-year correlation. That figure is the best contributor to actual sacks during the season, as well.

With a smaller pool of high-end players at defensive tackle, the stability for these key metrics is even stronger. The 2025 leaders in expected sacks are listed below:

Players of note:

Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs: Jones has led the position in expected sacks in three of the past four seasons, having never finished lower than the 97th percentile in any previous year. While Jones has come up just a little short on those expectations in back-to-back seasons, he remains a high-upside option heading into 2026, thanks to his combination of ideal playing time and strong pass-rush metrics.

Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans: Simmons delivered the best IDP and pass-rush season of his career in 2025, notching a position-leading 91.6 PFF pass-rush grade and 11 sacks, landing in the 99th percentile in expected sacks along the way. Simmons was as consistent as they come in DT-required IDP formats this year, and while he technically overachieved in the sack column, he can limit the amount of regression he experiences in 2026 by maintaining elite pass-rush metrics.

Zach Allen, Denver Broncos: Allen finished exactly where he did in 2024, placing in the 99th percentile in expected sacks (6.9) and finishing the year with seven actual sacks. After tallying 8.5 sacks in 2024 and at risk of potential regression in 2025, Allen landed right at his expected sack totals from last year and this year. He is a prime example of the predictability of this metric.

Kobie Turner, Los Angeles Rams: It took some time for Turner to deliver on his IDP potential this season, as he managed just 1.5 sacks through the first 10 games of the year before positively regressing with 5.5 sacks in the final seven. Turner has consistently been a top-tier defensive tackle candidate for IDP since entering the league in 2023, finishing in the top 94th percentile in all three seasons. He should remain in that tier heading into 2026.

Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants: Lawrence was one of the biggest overachievers in the sack column in 2024, and he ended up regressing so far in the other direction in 2025 that he finished with more sacks below expected than any other interior defensive lineman. With just a half-sack this year, after nine last year, Lawrence should have an easy time improving on his sack totals in 2026, considering his 96th-percentile mark in expected sacks.

Mason Graham, Cleveland Browns: Graham also logged just a half-sack in 2025, and while his expected sack total wasn’t as high as that of Dexter Lawrence, he was certainly deserving of a better outcome. Graham placed in the 80th percentile in expected sacks as a rookie thanks to excellent playing time and average pass-rush metrics. He has plenty of room to improve on the latter, which would certainly help him start delivering in the sack column.

Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles: Carter’s potential is undeniable after he ranked in the top 95th percentile in expected sacks in his first two seasons and the 98th percentile in expected sacks per game this year after appearing in just 11 games. Unfortunately, Carter has yet to deliver high-end sack totals or even outperform his expected sack totals, despite IDP managers continuing to bank on him eventually delivering in that regard as a legitimate DT1 option in the years ahead.

The top-30 list of over- and underachievers in the sack column in 2025 can be found below. The column highlighting sacks versus expected indicates the top candidates for positive (right) and negative (left) sack regression heading into 2026.

Interested IDP managers can view the full list of positional rankings in Sacks vs. Expected for this season and dating back to 2021 here.