Fantasy Football: High-variance running backs with overall RB1 upside in 2026

Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson enter 2026 as the favorites to finish as fantasy football's overall RB1. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor have each accomplished the feat before, and another No. 1 finish from either veteran would hardly be surprising.

The more interesting question is which running back could join that group. This article focuses on high-upside options being drafted outside the established elite who possess the ceiling to finish as fantasy football's top-scoring running back if everything breaks their way in 2026.

To keep the focus on true breakout candidates, recent top-five finishers such as De'Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall and Travis Etienne were excluded from consideration.

Jeanty was selected sixth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, a draft slot that typically supports immediate top-10 fantasy production. However, several factors outside of his control limited his rookie output.

The Raiders scored just 241 offensive points last season, the fewest in the NFL, and the team ranked third-lowest in PFF run-blocking grade (53.0). As a result, Jeanty averaged just 0.6 yards before contact per attempt, the second-lowest mark among running backs with at least 100 carries.

Despite those conditions, Jeanty forced 61 missed tackles on the ground, ranking fifth among running backs. He also ranked fourth in PFF rushing grade (92.3) on carries with positive yards before contact, highlighting his ability to capitalize when given space and suggesting significant upside in an improved environment.

Las Vegas has a new head coach this season, and the team selected quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. The Raiders also entered the offseason with significant cap space and invested in the offensive line by adding center Tyler Linderbaum, a move that should help improve Jeanty's efficiency.

Hampton flashed potential as a rookie, with his best performance coming in a 128-yard outing against the New York Giants that also featured a touchdown and five catches for 37 yards. He averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in four of his other five games before an ankle fracture cost him half the season. He returned for the final four games of the regular season but struggled more often than not. He then played just two offensive snaps in the Chargers' playoff loss.

Like many rookies, Hampton wasn't as efficient as fantasy managers had hoped, in part because of the blocking in front of him. He averaged a below-average 1.1 yards before contact per attempt, but his 3.4 yards after contact per attempt ranked 10th among running backs.

The Chargers' offensive line looks completely different this year. Rashawn Slater missed all of 2025 but was a top-five run-blocker in 2024, and Joe Alt was the team's highest-graded run-blocker last season despite missing most of the year with injury. The team also added center Tyler Biadasz, whose 71.2 run-block grade towers over the 51.1 mark Bradley Bozeman earned last year. A similar gap exists between new right guard Cole Strange and his predecessor, Mekhi Becton. There will be a competition at left guard, but that spot should ideally be an upgrade as well.

The major concern is his competition for touches. Kimani Vidal played well in Hampton's absence and was notably the better pass protector. Los Angeles also added Keaton Mitchell in free agency, the running back most similar to De'Von Achane. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who helped Achane become a top-five fantasy back in Miami, heavily campaigned for general manager Joe Hortiz to add Mitchell.

If McDaniel elevates the Chargers‘ offense into one of the league's best and Hampton handles the clear majority of backfield touches, he could be in for a special season. But plenty could go wrong, from how the carries are divided to the several key players coming off injuries who may not return to form.

Jacobs has been one of the most consistent fantasy running backs in the league. He is one of just eight backs to finish among the top 12 in fantasy points per game in both 2024 and 2025, and his third-ranked PFF offensive grade (92.6) over the past two seasons helps separate him from the pack. He also benefits from an above-average offense led by a young quarterback and an unchanged playcaller, which adds up to a stable situation.

Jacobs also lacks competition for touches out of the backfield. The Packers let Emanuel Wilson leave in free agency, leaving Chris Brooks and the often-injured MarShawn Lloyd as the primary backups. He should get as many touches as he can handle, particularly at the goal line.

The biggest knock on Jacobs' value in Green Bay has been the offensive line. His 0.9 yards before contact per attempt over the past two seasons are tied for the second-fewest among running backs with at least 300 carries. The Packers moved on from Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker, who were both notably better pass protectors than run blockers. Their lowest-graded run blocker was rookie right guard Anthony Belton, but his four best games came over the final four weeks of the regular season, so he could take a leap in Year 2. Jordan Morgan is moving to left tackle, which should help, as well.

The other major concern for Jacobs is durability. He missed time at the end of the 2023 season and played through injury during the second half of 2025. He was also arrested on domestic violence allegations, but was released from jail in late May with no charges filed against him. Little has come out since, yet there remains a significant risk of a suspension at some point this season. The Packers might prepare for that by adding a running back, which would give Jacobs more competition for touches even when he's available. Green Bay could also release him, gaining cap space in the process.

At best, an improved offensive line elevates his efficiency and pushes him from a top-12 back to a league winner. But there's real risk for anyone drafting him until there's more clarity on potential league discipline or any legal proceedings against him.