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Fantasy versus Reality: PFF grades and fantasy points

Fantasy versus Reality: PFF grades and fantasy points
Artículo Completo 1,404 palabras
Nic Bodiford assesses how and why a player overperformed their grading, underperformed their grading or if their grading accurately reflects their fantasy football contributions in the 2025 NFL season.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Stafford’s PFF passing grade accurately reflects his elite fantasy football productivity.
  • WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: Sutton outperformed his PFF receiving grade.
  • 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
  • Estimated Reading Time:8 minutes

    PFF’s grading system seeks to evaluate “a player’s ‘contribution to production' on a given play” by evaluating “every player on every play during a football game.” As a result, PFF grades provide fantasy managers with usable composite scores that assist in the draft and waiver wire processes.

    The article below assesses how and why a player overperformed their grading, underperformed their grading, or if their grading accurately reflects their fantasy football contributions in the 2025 NFL season. Weeks 1-17 and half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) settings are used as the default unless otherwise specified.

    QB Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

    New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart finished as the Weeks 1-18 QB14, banking nine QB1 finishes that included four in the top five, yet his 70.2 PFF offense grade ties for 27th among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 400 offensive snaps in Weeks 1-18. Dart’s elite rushing volume, statistical performance and grading counterbalance his overall grading and passing performance. The Giants’ coaching staff allowed their rookie quarterback to play in Week 18. He earned an overall QB8 fantasy finish, so his full regular-season data is included. On the whole, Dart overperformed his PFF offense grade, yet his dual-threat specifics accurately reflect his ability to contribute as a high-end QB1.

    As detailed previously, “rushing proved to be a more efficient point-scoring tactic than passing… QB1s averaged 0.84 fantasy points per rushing attempt and 0.53 fantasy points per passing attempt. 

    Elite dual-threat quarterbacks are preferred, but elite passing-oriented players should [not] be overlooked, nor should elite rushers with moderate passing traits…”

    Dart took over as the Giants’ starter in Week 4.

    Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 185 dropbacks in Weeks 1-18, Dart’s 6.7 yards per passing attempt ranks 29th, 59.6% accuracy percentage ranks 27th, 74.4% adjusted completion rate ranks 23rd, 38 scrambles tie for ninth, 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate ranks 27th and 5.2% big-time throw rate ranks seventh. His 64.8 PFF passing grade ties for 32nd.

    Unsurprisingly, Dart scored rushing touchdowns in seven of nine QB1 weekly finishes. He rushed for at least 48 yards in all four top-five finishes and scored two touchdowns in two of four qualifying games. 

    Among 20 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 rushing attempts in Weeks 1-18, Dart’s 0.12 missed tackles force per rushing attempt ranks 13th, 2.6 yards after contact per rushing attempt ranks 10th, 5.7 yards per rushing attempt ranks fifth, 86 rushing attempts rank fourth, and his 44.2% first-down and/or touchdown rate ranks third. His 76.9 PFF rushing grade ranks eighth. Among NFL quarterbacks in Weeks 1-18, Dart’s 22 red zone rushing attempts and seven rushing attempts inside the five-yard line rank and/or tie for fourth. 

    Dart grades only moderately well overall, but his dual-threat traits allow him to produce elite fantasy football results, which is accurately reflected in his PFF grade subcategories.

    QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay used Week 18 as a get-right opportunity for his team, allowing quarterback Matthew Stafford to jump from the overall QB3 to overall QB2 in season-long scoring by producing his fourth four-plus passing touchdown performance this season. Immobile NFL quarterbacks require exceptional passing performances to achieve fantasy football QB1 results. Stafford’s PFF grading accurately reflects his exceptional on-field and fantasy-scoring results. He earned a 93.3 PFF passing grade, ranking first among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 400 offensive snaps in Weeks 1-18.

    Stafford rushed 32 times for zero yards and one fumble lost this season. 

    Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 185 dropbacks in Weeks 1-18, Stafford’s 2.71-second average time to throw ties for 10th, 7.9 yards per passing attempt ranks seventh, 9.5-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks third, 22.3% accurate-plus percentage ranks second, 4,707 passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns and 7.4% big-time throw rate ranks first.

    Stafford’s elite grading reasonably overlaps with his elite fantasy finish.

    WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

    Sutton finished as the half-PPR overall WR9, yet his 77.6 PFF receiving grade ranks 20th among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 85 targets in Weeks 1-17. Sutton’s role as a high-volume downfield possession-receiver role helped him outperform his PFF grading in 2025. His underwhelming stable metric performances yield poor grading and suggest a 2026 dropoff is imminent. 

    Sutton caught 73-of-118 targets for 1,012 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 85 targets in Weeks 1-17, his three aforementioned fantasy-relevant data points respectively tie for 16th, rank 12th and tie for eighth. 

    Although his 13.5-yard aDot ranks fifth, his 1.70 yards per route run (YPRR) ties for 24th, and his 2.8 yards after the catch per reception ties for 32nd.

    Sutton, 30, successfully generated a WR1 fantasy stat line in his 2025 role by outperforming his PFF receiving grade, but his stable metrics reveal a lesser, declining player. 

    WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

    An overall WR2 finish in Week 18 propelled Pierce from the WR35 to the WR24 spot. His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranks 14th among 43 NFL wide receivers with at least 80 targets in Weeks 1-18. Pierce performed well in PFF’s stable metrics despite being stuck in a highly volatile downfield role, resulting in a high-end PFF receiving grade. Pierce underperformed his PFF grading in fantasy football, yet his performance suggests a significant fantasy-scoring leap is possible via a 2026 role change. 

    Among 43 NFL wide receivers with at least 80 targets in Weeks 1-18, Pierce operated via the highest aDot (20.1) and deep-target rate (33.7%), second-highest contested catch rate (38.1%) and the lowest slot-target rate (1.5%). 

    His 56.6% catch rate is directly tethered to this usage and ranks 37th.

    Despite the difficult circumstances, Pierce produced career bests in YPRR (2.10) and yards after the catch per reception (4.0). The two figures, respectively, rank 12th and 23rd.

    Pierce also earned a career-best 77.7 PFF receiving grade on targets thrown eight to 14 yards downfield, and has consistently graded well on targets thrown in this range, earning a qualifying 74.1 PFF receiving grade or better among three of his four NFL seasons. His fantasy-scoring results could improve if his route tree is diversified.

    Pierce’s grading indicates he is a breakout-in-waiting candidate who underperformed in an albeit positive fantasy football season. 

    RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey finished as the overall RB1, yet his 79.4 PFF offense grade ranks 11th among 28 NFL running backs with at least 175 offensive touches. McCaffrey’s league-best touch volume yielded elite productivity despite waning stable rushing metrics. His receiving metrics and corresponding grading remain exceptional. McCaffrey outperformed his overall PFF grading, but his touch count, receiving performance and grading accurately reflect his 2025 fantasy-scoring performance.

    As detailed previously, ”[w]hile the PPR WR1 group showed a moderate correlation between productivity and offensive environment, the PPR RB1 group demonstrates a far stronger connection between productivity and offensive environment, with two outlier exceptions. Overall offensive snap share, situational snap share and rushing attempt share resoundingly showed the strongest correlation with the group, though low rushing attempt volume, stemming in part from pass-heavy offensive tactics, was positively offset by high target volume. Players generally exhibited average-to-above-average per-play efficiency metrics, though efficiency proved less important than overall offensive touch volume and PFF rushing grade.

    Among all offensive environment metrics, snap count, touch count, touch share and efficiency metrics, overall offensive snap share, situational snap shares and rushing attempt share show the strongest correlation with PPR RB1 success, with all 12 players ranking No. 1 overall among each NFL running back’s respective team in Weeks 1-17.”

    McCaffrey’s 399 offensive touches rank first among NFL running backs by 46. He likewise ranks first in targets (114), receptions (96), receiving yards (890) and receiving touchdowns (seven), while grading out as the best player (91.6 PFF receiving grade) among 12 NFL running backs with at least 40 targets in Weeks 1-17. He ranks second in YPRR (1.82).

    His 1,179 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns rank and/or tie for eighth, and his 303 rushing attempts rank third. Among 33 NFL running backs with at least 145 rushing attempts in Weeks 1-17, McCaffrey’s 0.15 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt and 2.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt rank and/or tie for 28th, while he grades out as the 30th-best player (69.6 PFF rushing grade). 

    High-end per-play efficiency, particularly in stable metrics, is not required for elite fantasy football finishes at the position, though McCaffrey’s exceptional receiving ability and grading correspond positively with his season-long results, as does his league-high workload.

    Fuente original: Leer en Football - America
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