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Estimated Reading Time: 6minutes
Are you struggling to set your Week 16 fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 16. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.
Don’t miss my Fire and Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 16 of the 2025 fantasy football season.
Quarterbacks
Fire QB Start of the Week: Brock Purdy (at IND)
Brock Purdy has now gone two straight games without throwing an interception after being reckless with the football over his first four games played this season. He had his best fantasy performance of the season last week against the Tennessee Titans with three touchdowns, nearly 300 passing yards and 26.2 fantasy points. This is another good matchup for Purdy as the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season, behind only the Dallas Cowboys.
Sleeper QB of the Week: J.J. McCarthy (at NYG)
McCarthy has put together back-to-back good fantasy performances against the weak Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys secondaries over the last two weeks — throwing six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. He gets another juicy matchup this weekend against the New York Giants, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position in 2025.
Ice QB Start of the Week: Trevor Lawrence (at DEN)
It has been a very nice stretch for Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last four games and had an insane six-touchdown performance in Week 15. However, he has had a very kind schedule over the last month, facing the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets defenses. This week will be much harder, on the road in Denver, against the Broncos‘ elite pass defense. The Broncos have allowed just 10.7 fantasy points on average at home to opposing starting quarterbacks in 2025.
Running Backs
Fire RB Start of the Week: Woody Marks (vs. LV)
The Las Vegas Raiders‘ defense has not been able to stop opposing running backs over the last month, allowing R.J. Harvey (22), Kimani Vidal (20.7), Saquon Barkley (17.2), Quinshon Judkins (16.7) and Dylan Sampson (16.2) to each hit at least 16 points against them over the last four weeks. The Houston Texans are the biggest favorites of the week, currently favored by 14.5 points with one of the league’s top defenses, which should put Woody Marks in line for plenty of work, especially as Nick Chubb works through a rib injury.
Sleeper RB of the Week: Kenneth Gainwell (at DET)
The Steelers have leaned on Jaylen Warren as a starter this season, but Kenneth Gainwell has started gaining some steam in the backfield lately and could be a viable sleeper through the fantasy playoffs. Gainwell has seen six-plus targets in four of the past five games, finishing with 100-plus scrimmage yards in three of his past five games. Gainwell has been the RB6 in full PPR-scoring formats dating back to Week 11 and could see plenty of work in the passing game this week, given the Detroit Lions’ strength against the run.
Ice RB Start of the Week: Ashton Jeanty (at HOU)
It seems inconceivable to consider benching a star like Ashton Jeanty, but between the Raiders’ offensive line play and a challenging matchup against the Texans, it may be time. The Raiders have the second-lowest run blocking grade in the league this year at 50.8, while the Texans rank third in the league with a 77.6 run defense grade. Jeanty has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in three of his last five matchups.
Wide Receivers
Fire WR Start of the Week: Michael Wilson (vs. ATL)
Jacoby Brissett clearly has a stronger connection with Michael Wilson over Marvin Harrison Jr. Even though the latter could be back on the field this weekend, that shouldn’t mean fantasy managers should shy away from Wilson.
No defense has allowed more points per game to the wide receiver position than the Atlanta Falcons since Week 8. In that span, 10 different wide receivers have put up 16-plus fantasy points against the Falcons, including Tetairoa McMillan, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Adonai Mitchell, Jaylen Waddle and DeMario Douglas, who all hit at least 20 points against them.
Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Jalen Coker (vs. TB)
Jalen Coker has double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games while scoring 17.4 and 14.0 points in the last two weeks. He has been beating opponents deep as of late, coming down with a receiving touchdown of over 30 yards in each of the last two games. Coker has turned into Bryce Young’s go-to guy. He leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns since Week 12.
Ice WR Starts of the Week: George Pickens (vs. LAC)
George Pickens may have officially checked out for the season. He has been a ghost as of late, putting up just 37 and 33 yards and zero touchdowns in the last two games. Last weekend, the stingy Minnesota Vikings secondary shut down Pickens, and it won’t get any easier this Sunday when he faces the Los Angeles Chargers, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2025.
Tight Ends
Fire TE Start of the Week: Dalton Schultz (vs. LV)
Dalton Schultz has been an integral part of the Houston Texans’ offense for the majority of this season. The only tight end who has more receptions than Schultz since Week 5 is Trey McBride. He scored a season-high 21.6 fantasy points last week against the Arizona Cardinals‘ weak defense. I expect another big outing from him against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allowed Dallas Goedert to put up 25 points against them in Week 15.
Sleeper TE of the Week: Darren Waller (vs. CIN)
The Miami Dolphins are entering a new era in Week 16, starting rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers after the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. That could mean good things for Darren Waller as a potential sleeper option, considering Ewers’ usage of the tight end position at Texas. Between the 2022 and 2024 seasons, four players had amassed 1,000-plus receiving yards on 79-plus receptions – two of them being tight ends Ja’Tavion Sanders and Gunnar Helm. At 6-foot-6, Waller will offer Ewers a hard-to-miss option over the middle who’s been hot in the red zone all season, currently tied to lead the team with six receiving touchdowns despite playing just seven games (22.6% of offensive snaps).
Ice TE Start of the Week: Brock Bowers (at HOU)
Last week, Brock Bowers was held to just six receptions for 28 yards and zero touchdowns on eight targets against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Raiders’ offense couldn’t get anything going in Week 15, and no one should be shocked if they are shut out for a second straight week against the Houston Texans‘ elite defense this Sunday. The Texans allowed Trey McBride to put up a big game against them last week, but he was the first tight end to have 50-plus receiving yards and a touchdown against Houston in a game this season.
Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays
Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).
Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 16. I have also not included Rams/Seahawks players, as they have already played on Thursday Night Football by the time this article is published.
Fire 🔥
- QB: Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett
- RB: Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Woody Marks
- WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, Jameson Williams, A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf
- TE: Trey McBride, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz
- DEF: Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Eagles
Thumbs Up 👍
- QB: Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield
- RB: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift (if active), Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle
- WR: CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Courtland Sutton, Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore
- TE: Travis Kelce, Colston Loveland, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid
- DEF: Broncos, Saints, Vikings
Upside 📈
- QB: Dak Prescott, J.J. McCarthy, C.J. Stroud, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers
- RB: Kyle Monangai, Kenneth Gainwell, Quinshon Judkins, Tyrone Tracy Jr., David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Michael Carter, Aaron Jones, Kimani Vidal, Tyler Allgeier, Audric Estime, Jordan Mason
- WR: Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, Jauan Jennings, Michael Pittman Jr., Jayden Reed, Troy Franklin, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan, Adonai Mitchell
- TE: Tyler Warren, Theo Johnson, Oronde Gadsden II
- DEF: Chargers, Jaguars, 49ers, Bears
Ice 🥶
- QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Jaxson Dart
- RB: Ashton Jeanty, Derrick Henry, R.J. Harvey, Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren, Kareem Hunt, Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: George Pickens, Justin Jefferson, Jakobi Meyers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Stefon Diggs
- TE: Brock Bowers, Harold Fannin Jr., Jake Ferguson, Brenton Strange
- DEF: Packers, Lions, Patriots, Panthers