- The Seahawks have been passive, but maybe correctly so: Mike Macdonald and Seattle own the fewest fourth-down tries since 2021, yet those calls align with PFF's model.
- Good process, poor results for the Browns and Giants: New head coaches Todd Monken and John Harbaugh inherit franchises that have gone all-in on fourth down but not found much success.
The NFL has borne witness to several lightning-rod conversation points over the last few seasons, and none has been more polarizing than what to do on fourth down. Analytics proponents point to increased win probabilities — as such conversions extend drives — while traditionalists lament slim odds and would rather either secure points or rely on defense.
The league itself has trended toward attempting more fourth-down conversions, with teams averaging a record 30.75 such attempts in the 2025 season. That’s almost double the 16.72 mark 10 years prior.
However, certain coaches and organizations have leaned more into an aggressive late-down philosophy, while others are more content to kick a field goal or punt to establish a new set of downs. Let’s take a peek into the franchises that have most and least utilized — and benefitted from — fourth-down tries over the last five years.
Total fourth-down attempts
Most fourth-down attempts, 2021-25
Team Number Detroit Lions 198 Cleveland Browns 187 Carolina Panthers 183 New York Giants 180 Chicago Bears 170It wouldn’t feel right if anybody other than the Lions topped this list. Dan Campbell’s unwavering commitment to sustaining drives is not only what directly feeds into his mentality as a head coach, but also has fostered Detroit’s overall turnaround in the last few seasons. Interestingly enough, Campbell has been a bit more gun-shy of late, ranking ninth in fourth-down tries last season.
Although the Browns have generally underwhelmed over the last half-decade, former head coach Kevin Stefanski helped pioneer a new era of football — which included trying to maximize possessions and be more creative offensively. Meanwhile, third-year Panthers coach Dave Canales has also bought into the franchise’s analytical style, compiling the third-most such attempts in his two years at the helm — including the most in 2025 (46).
Fewest fourth-down attempts, 2021-25
Team Number Seattle Seahawks 90 San Francisco 49ers 103 Cincinnati Bengals 104 Pittsburgh Steelers 105 Kansas City Chiefs 112The teams on this list have combined to win three of the last four Super Bowls and are consistently in the playoff mix. Yet, their well-respected head coaches aren’t exactly known for being gamblers on fourth down.
Seahawks leader Mike Macdonald has relied upon a more old-school defensive philosophy, attempting a league-low 35 fourth-down plays in his two years with the team. Fellow NFC West giant Kyle Shanahan also hasn’t added much of a fourth-down package. In the AFC, perhaps the Steelers will see a more proactive style under Mike McCarthy after Mike Tomlin was typically very conservative.
Fourth-down conversion rate
Highest fourth-down conversion rate, 2021-25
Team Number Kansas City Chiefs 67% Los Angeles Rams 64.6% Philadelphia Eagles 63.0% Buffalo Bills 62.6% Washington Commanders 61.2%Andy Reid may not be extremely inclined to go for it on the final down, but his game plans have clearly worked — and that high success rate likely isn’t a coincidence in fueling the team’s dynastic run. The Rams, Eagles and Bills also rank in the league’s elite tier of organizations since 2021, and their ability to maintain possessions is presumably a factor. More specifically, Philadelphia guide Nick Sirianni has blended pushing the right buttons with a wildly successful — and hotly debated — play on fourth down.
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(opens in new tab) →Lowest fourth-down conversion rate, 2021-25
Team Number Arizona Cardinals 46.9% New Orleans Saints 47.5% San Francisco 49ers 47.6% New York Jets 47.8% Chicago Bears 48.2%The Cardinals own the sixth-most fourth-down tries since 2021, but they haven’t been fruitful with either Kliff Kingsbury or Jonathan Gannon on the sidelines. San Francisco’s lowly mark may linger in Shanahan’s mind as to why he’s hesitant on fourth down. Even with Ben Johnson, the Bears didn’t improve their conversion rate despite consistently going on fourth down, tying for 21st with a 50% clip last year.
Average yards per play on fourth down
Most average yards per play on fourth down, 2021-25
Team Number Buffalo Bills 5.8 Minnesota Vikings 5.3 Denver Broncos 5.2 Cincinnati Bengals 5.2 Baltimore Ravens/Los Angeles Chargers/New York Jets/Detroit Lions/Carolina Panthers 5.0The Bills’ version of the tush push — sometimes known as the “Snow Plow” — has been wildly successful, as Josh Allen’s 6-foot-5 frame isn’t easy to stop moving downhill. Intriguingly, none of the other three teams inside the top four of this list rank above the league-average fourth-down rate, as they’re clearly not overly influenced by track record. Meanwhile, the Lions’ and Panthers’ aggressiveness has paid off based on their per-play averages.
Fewest average yards per play on fourth down, 2021-25
Team Number Cleveland Browns 2.5 New York Giants 3.1 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.1 San Francisco 49ers 3.2 New Orleans Saints 3.3Considering their 25th-ranked success rate and league-worst yards-per-play figure on fourth down, the Browns and new head coach Todd Monken may want to be a tad more passive in 2026. Believe it or not, Cleveland averaged -1.6 yards per play on fourth down in 2025, the worst mark by anyone since the Colts in 2006. Similar sentiments apply to John Harbaugh in New York.
Based on these low averages, it’s more clear why the Steelers, 49ers and Saints have been disinclined from attempting many plays on a drive’s last down.
NFL Team Fourth-Down Conversion Rate and Yards/Play, 2021-25
Fourth-down decision-making
Highest fourth-down “agree” rate, 2021-25
Team Number Buffalo Bills 81.2% Seattle Seahawks 79.8% Cleveland Browns 79.4% Baltimore Ravens 79.3% New Orleans Saints/New York Giants 78.3%Not only are the Bills wildly effective on fourth down, but former head coach Sean McDermott also rolled the dice at the right time, according to PFF’s fourth-down decision model. New guide Joe Brady will likely follow suit.
What’s especially fascinating about this metric is that it features teams who range on both ends of the spectrum, from very aggressive (Browns, Giants) to the most modest (Seahawks, Saints, Ravens). Perhaps those coaching staffs should have extra reason to believe in their calls to keep the offense on the field, kick or punt on fourth down. For the former group, Cleveland and New York appear to be undergoing the right process but executing poorly.
Lowest fourth-down “agree” rate, 2021-25
Team Number Dallas Cowboys 71.6% Las Vegas Raiders 72.8% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 73.8% Chicago Bears 73.9% Arizona Cardinals 74.3%The Cowboys and Raiders rank 12th and 16th, respectively, in fourth-down tries over the last five seasons, but PFF’s model seems to suggest those figures should have been either higher or lower. Dallas is an especially interesting team weighing the emergence of kicker Brandon Aubrey, whose ability to convert kicks from nearly record range may skew the Cowboys toward worse choices on fourth down.
As for the Bears and Cardinals, their head coaches have probably been a bit too wide-eyed on fourth down. Since 2021, both squads attempted at least 162 such offensive tries but ranked in the bottom five in conversion rate. Those ill-advised plays may have cost each side more than a handful of wins.