New England Patriots (-4.5) vs. Denver Broncos [Total: 42.5]
Game Overview
Time is a flat circle. The Patriots and Broncos are set to play in the AFC Championship game, a battle reminiscent of their meeting a decade ago. That matchup featured the No. 1 seed Broncos, powered by a stalwart defense but navigating questions at quarterback, against the No. 2 seed Patriots, headlined by an MVP candidate at quarterback. Sounds familiar.
Fresh off a hotly contested divisional-round victory over the Bills — one shrouded by controversy — the Broncos face the biggest challenge of the weekend: overcoming a devastating season-ending injury to franchise signal-caller Bo Nix.
Although no franchise wants to be down their starting quarterback, the Broncos invested in backup Jarrett Stidham with an extension this offseason. While Stidham didn't throw a pass during the regular season, he was electric in the preseason, posting the highest PFF passing grade (90.0) among qualifying quarterbacks. He recorded an obscene 11.6% big-time throw rate.
2025 Preseason PFF Passing Grade Leaders
Offensively, the Broncos will be monitoring their injury report closely, as numerous key players’ statuses remain in question. Receivers Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) exited the divisional round and did not return, leaving questions about the team's receiving depth. That would undoubtedly create difficulties for any quarterback, particularly one who has gotten limited exposure to high-leverage situations.
However, on a more positive note, running back J.K. Dobbins (foot) has returned to practice following an eight-game absence, a welcome boost to a run game that has sorely missed him. Before his injury in Week 10, the Broncos ranked fifth in successful run-play rate (34.0%). His addition may prove vital to the Broncos' offensive success, considering the Patriots' stout defensive front.
While New England’s rushing metrics took a hit without linebacker Robert Spillane (88.2 PFF run-defense grade), his return in the playoffs has rejuvenated the Patriots' front.
Patriots' Run-Defense Splits vs. Designed Runs
EPA/RushYards/CarryWith Robert Spillane-0.148 (4th)3.5 (4th)Without Robert Spillane-0.035 (25th)4.6 (28th)That fact alone may put significant pressure on the Broncos' offensive line to hold up for Stidham, but they are well equipped for the challenge. Headlined by first-team All-Pros Garett Bolles (90.5 PFF overall grade) and Quinn Meinerz (90.3), Denver maintains the highest-graded team PFF pass-blocking grade (79.1), sitting 4.5 points higher than any other team on the grading scale this season.
With that being said, there’s no question that the marquee matchup is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense against a stout Broncos defense.
Maye has been electric this season, well worthy of MVP consideration. The second-year passer is a hunter with dual-threat ability, having earned an 87.4 PFF overall grade this season. New England's victory over the Texans in the divisional round provided some hope that the team can handle another top-tier defense in Denver. Yet, that outing wasn't Maye’s best work, as he produced the lowest-graded game of his season (49.1).
The Broncos' blitz-heavy, man-coverage defense is a difficult stylistic matchup for Maye. While he is a capable passer against any coverage, there is a notable drop in his ability to beat man compared to zone.
The other critical factor in this matchup is the Broncos' blitz packages. Denver has blitzed on passing downs at the sixth-highest rate (39.7%) in the NFL this season. Maye will need to be decisive in finding the open receiver when blitzed. When pressured by the blitz, Maye has produced a shaky 48.3 PFF passing grade. When the blitz isn’t able to get home, his PFF passing grade jumps to 81.0.
If the Broncos aren’t able to generate pressure from blitzing, it will leave their defense open for Maye to beat them with his legs, with man coverage turned away from the line of scrimmage. Maye has proven to be a dangerous force as a scrambler, with his 61 scramble runs during the regular season standing as the most in the NFL. Josh Allen’s ability to scramble was pivotal in the divisional round against Denver. He tallied a season-high 12 rushes, converting eight into first downs.
Quarterback Scramble Runs
If the Broncos manage to generate pressure as they have for much of the season (second-highest pressure rate in the NFL), the Patriots will find it difficult to push the ball downfield — their bread and butter in the passing game, as they rank first in explosive pass rate (17.9%). Conversely, the Broncos do well to limit explosive passes, also ranking first in the NFL in the category.
Overall, the market on this game opened widely in favor of the Patriots, who are laying more than a field goal on the road. However, the PFF simulation model believes the line to be a bit rich, seeing value in the Broncos as home underdogs.
WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots: Over 4.5 receptions
Click here to explore the PFF Player Prop Tool!Diggs has stepped up this season as the leader of the Patriots' receiving corps and one of Drake Maye’s favorite targets. This matchup against the Broncos' blitz-heavy, man-coverage defense profiles as a strong opportunity for Diggs to make some noise.
The Broncos are running man coverage at a top-10 rate this season. As one of the top route runners in the NFL, Diggs excels when faced with man coverage looks, posting the ninth-highest PFF receiving grade (88.5) among receivers against man coverage. His 23.0% target rate versus man also leads all Patriots pass catchers, illustrating the trust Maye has in his top target to win in single coverage.