Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (-1) [Total: 45.5]
Game Overview
The Bills pulled off the road upset over the No. 3-seed Jacksonville Jaguars on wild-card weekend, capturing their first road playoff win in two decades. Powered by a gritty performance from Josh Allen, who earned a career-best 93.7 PFF passing grade, the Bills traded blows late, twice needing touchdowns to regain the lead. Meanwhile, head coach Sean McDermott’s defense deployed masterful coverage disguises to keep Trevor Lawrence out of sync and force the game-deciding interception.
However, the injuries have mounted for Buffalo, with two more receivers suffering season-ending knee injuries. Allen (foot, knee, finger) himself gutted out numerous blows that would have taken down lesser quarterbacks. Although injuries are no stranger this time of year, the uncertainty of Allen’s health has swung the line from the Bills as 1.5-point road favorites at opening to now being underdogs by a slim margin.
The Bills enter a hostile playoff environment in Denver against a Broncos team looking to return the favor for their 2024 postseason exit at the hands of Buffalo.
This contest marks the Broncos' first time hosting a postseason game in a decade. The last time the Mile High City found itself playing host in a playoff matchup, the Broncos rode the No.1 seed and marched to a Super Bowl victory behind a superior defensive performance. Denver is in a similar situation, possessing a defense that led the NFL in yards per play allowed (4.5) and successful play rate allowed (30.1%).
Best Bet: RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-110)
Since returning to the lineup, Jaleel McLaughlin has performed well as the spell back behind RJ Harvey. While he’s seen just over 21% of the backfield volume over that span (5.1 carries per game), he’s proven to be a particularly efficient runner. His 5.2 yards per carry ranks in the top 10 among backs with at least 25 carries since Week 11, allowing him to surpass this line in six of his past seven games.
The Bills’ struggles tackling in run defense have pushed opposing offenses to attack them on the ground. Their 74 missed tackles versus the run rank in the bottom five in the NFL this season. McLaughlin forces missed tackles at an exceptionally high rate, ranking second among all running backs with at least 25 carries in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.33). The Broncos running back should have opportunities to find extra yardage.