Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) [Total: 47]
Game Overview
After a pair of instant classics during the regular season, the third iteration of Rams-Seahawks is well worth the hype. The prior two matchups between these NFC West rivals took shape with notably different tempos and differing outcomes in each meeting.
The first matchup back in Week 11 featured a methodical approach from both teams. Defensively, both squads flourished. Seattle delivered a powerful blow to a Rams offense that was firing on all cylinders, limiting Sean McVay’s offense to its lowest EPA per play performance of the year. On the other side, the Rams forced Sam Darnold into four interceptions. Seattle was still in it until the end but ultimately fell short due to a missed 61-yard field goal attempt.
In a swing in the opposite direction, the Week 16 matchup was a high-octane offensive battle of wits. The Rams came out firing. The PFF MVP, Matthew Stafford, and the PFF Offensive Player of the Year, Puka Nacua, combined for a monumental day, pushing the Seahawks to the brink. However, Seattle managed to trade blows throughout. Thanks to a late punt-return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed, as well as a strange two-point conversion, the Seahawks managed to force overtime and win a tight contest.
This is important, not only as a recap of the prior two battles between two of the NFL’s best but also to illustrate the fact that even with both games featuring close spreads, the team that won was not able to cover.
While a two-game sample is limited, it illustrates a wide range of potential outcomes for this bout. In a more concrete sample across the entire season, we can identify a few key factors to watch for, primarily centered on an aggressive Seahawks defense and an explosive Rams offense.
Mike Macdonald’s defense has been lights-out for much of the year, having led the NFL in EPA per play allowed during the regular season. That was on full display when Seattle dismantled a strong 49ers offense in the divisional round.
On the other sideline, Sean McVay’s offense has been considered the pace car for offensive efficiency this year, posting the highest EPA per play mark during the regular season. Where this gets complicated is looking at the Rams' offensive production during the postseason.
As I mentioned in my early look at the conference championship betting lines, the Rams rank 10th among the 14 playoff teams in offensive success rate (31.8%), needing late scores to secure victory. Neither the Panthers‘ nor the Bears‘ defenses were situated in the lower half of the NFL in most defensive metrics, casting some doubt on Los Angeles' recent effectiveness.
Offensive Successful Play Rate (Postseason)
The other side of the ball for both teams isn’t without questions, either.
Starting with the Seahawks offense, the loss of running back Zach Charbonnet — who suffered a significant knee injury in the divisional round — is a devastating blow to an offense that posted the second-highest run-play rate during the regular season. Charbonnet was instrumental to Seattle’s two-headed backfield monster, earning the second-highest PFF rushing grade in the NFL this season. Kenneth Walker III will now have to bear the load alone. Luckily, Walker’s grading profile isn’t far behind his backfield mate, with each posting a 90.0-plus PFF rushing grade.
Top RBs by PFF Rushing Grade (Regular Season)
That development may lead the Seahawks to take a more pass-heavy approach in this matchup, as they did in the prior matchups against the Rams. However, injury developments have also hit Seattle up front, with three offensive tackles in danger of missing this game, most notably, starting left tackle Charles Cross.
Regardless of who starts at left tackle for Seattle, they will draw the difficult task of slowing down explosive Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. While Verse has yet to record a sack this postseason, he has been close, notching five quarterback hits across two games. That appears to be a spot where the market has mispriced props, creating expected value opportunities surrounding his sack output.
Jared Verse Sack Prop Odds (DraftKings)
PropOddsOver 0.25 sacks+1401+ sacks+1842+ sacks+1000The Rams have also been susceptible to allowing passing production on the back end. Since Week 13, the team's defense ranks below the league average in yards per attempt (18th), passer rating allowed (19th) and percentage of passes to go for 15 or more yards (19th).
Overall, that leaves us with a wide variety of potential outcomes for a matchup between two of the NFL’s best.
TE Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams: Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
Click here to explore the PFF Player Prop Tool!The return of Tyler Higbee to the lineup in Week 18 was supposed to be the end of Parkinson's run of relevance. While the Rams are known for their high rate of 13-personnel usage (three-tight end sets), Parkinson is clearly the guy head coach Sean McVay aims to feature. He leads Rams tight ends in targets (11) and routes run (47) this postseason, and he profiles as a strong volume option in this matchup.
Rams TE Receiving Stats (Postseason)
Although Parkinson tallied just a pair of receptions in each of the regular-season showdowns with the Seahawks, his opportunity to excel in this matchup remains, given Seattle's tendency to funnel targets to tight ends and running backs. The Seahawks allowed the second-highest rate of targets and the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season.