- The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ passing game dominates:Trevor Lawrence only attempted 23 passes, but he averaged 10.7 yards per pass and threw for four touchdowns.
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Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
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New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
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Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
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Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
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Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Monitor Dylan Sampson’s health: The Browns' backup running back left in the first quarter and was ruled out early in the second.
The Browns had a three-man running back rotation last season, with Quinshon Judkins as the early-down back, Jerome Ford as the third-down back and Sampson as the backup in all situations. Cleveland opted not to re-sign Ford and instead move Raheim Sanders up the depth chart. That presumably meant more opportunities for both Judkins and Sampson.
Sampson was one of the two primary returners and suffered the knee injury on special teams before having an opportunity to play on offense. This left Judkins and Sanders as the two running backs for the entire game.
Judkins played notably more on normal early downs compared to his baseline last season. He averaged 61.1% of early-down snaps last season, and that was up to 83.8% in this game. He rarely played on third downs or in the two-minute drill last season, and that remained true in this game, with Sanders taking those situations. In an ideal world, Judkins would be playing in two-minute drills
While it would have been nice to see Judkins playing more in passing situations, it was good to see his snaps increase relative to last season. However, the Browns offense will continue to hold him back. He received 14 touches, but the game script prevented them from sticking with Judkins as they did early in the game.
Cleveland leans on rookies at wide receiver: Boston and Concepcion finished first and second on the team in receiving yards, respectively.
The Browns' wide receiver room was one of their bigger problems last season, leading the team to draft KC Concepcion Jr. and Denzel Boston in the first and second rounds. The preseason made it clear they were the starters along with Jerry Jeudy, while Isaiah Bond and Tylan Wallace were the top backups.
Boston played over 90% of snaps in both 11 and 12 personnel, making him the clear leader on the team in snaps. Concepcion played 80.6% of 11 personnel snaps, but just under 50% of 12 personnel, as he generally shared those reps with Jeudy. Jeudy played more than Concepcion in 12 personnel, but less in 11. Wallace was Jeudy’s backup in 11 personnel, while Bond was Concepcion’s backup.
This suggests Boston may be the better fantasy option of the two, as Boston was on the field for a lot more pass plays. His target rate was relatively low, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that increases. It also wouldn’t be shocking if Concepcion eventually overtakes Jeudy completely in 12 personnel, but the target rates are more likely to change in a short period of time. As for Jeudy, his snap rate has decreased too much for him to remain on fantasy rosters in most redraft leagues.
The Jaguars' new running back rotation: There was more bad news than good for Bhayshul Tuten.
The Jaguars' backfield was among the most discussed in the offseason. Last season, Travis Etienne Jr. was the early down back, Tuten his backup and LeQuint Allen the third-down and two-minute-drill back. Jacksonville didn’t re-sign Etienne, but instead brought in Chris Rodriguez Jr. Neither Tuten nor Rodriguez has a lot of NFL experience, but both have high yards-after-contact-per-carry and first-down rates. Tuten was drafted well ahead of Rodriguez due to his receiving relative to Rodriguez’s, but it was unclear how snaps would be distributed, both on early downs and at the goal line.
The first piece of good news for Tuten is he played more third-down snaps than anyone else. This might stick, but it’s worth noting Allen didn’t practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday and Friday with a hip injury. He was listed as questionable. It was good to see that Ameer Abdullah didn’t take the third-down snaps. Tuten also led the team in rushing production at 15 carries for 66 yards, but it is worth noting four of those were in the fourth quarter with Nick Mullens at quarterback.
The bad news is that Chris Rodriguez took the only goal-line snap. He also received most of the short-yardage snaps and a very high percentage of the early-down snaps. The Jaguars also won’t be blowing out opponents this much every week, so Trevor Lawrence will be throwing more than 23 times in most games.
Tuten could be a sell-high candidate for anyone who just looked at this total rushing attempts and isn’t taking into account the context for how he got those carries.
The Jaguars' new-look wide receiver room: The Jaguars have a clear top three wide receivers to start the season.
Jacksonville began last year with Brian Thomas Jr., Dyami Brown and Travis Hunter as its top receivers. Parker Washington slowly but surely earned more playing time, and the team traded for Jakobi Meyers after Hunter suffered a season-ending injury. We knew heading into this season that Washington, Thomas and Meyers would be the top wide receivers, but it was unclear how snaps would shake out in 12 personnel and how much the backups would rotate in.
In 11 personnel, the top three receivers all played over 75% of snaps. In 12 personnel, Meyers played 72.7% to 54.5% by Washington. Thomas only played 9.1% in 12 personnel. The Jaguars ran 12 plays out of single-receiver sets, and also deployed seven snaps at the end of the game with only backups. Hunter only played four snaps, all out of 11 personnel.
This rotation left Meyers only running a route on 80% of pass plays, 72% for Washington and 56% for Thomas. This is all notably lower than the end of last season. This shouldn’t be too alarming for Meyers and Washington. The Jaguars had several long drives, including two 14-play series, so it’s understandable the wide receivers would rotate a lot in those situations. The Jaguars also used backups for 20% of their drives. Thomas also left briefly with an injury, which may have impacted his playing time as well. This will be a situation worth monitoring throughout the season.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. had a very similar role to the end of last season, playing all of the 12 personnel snaps, 90% of the third-down snaps and a clear majority of single-tight end sets on early downs.
- Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange’s snap rate decreased slightly after the addition of Nate Boerkircher, as he only played two-thirds of the snaps out of 12 personnel after playing 80.9% of those snaps last season. However, his route participation numbers were identical to last year.
- The Jaguars elevated quarterback Nick Mullens from the practice squad for this game on Saturday to be the backup quarterback, while Quinn Ewers was inactive despite not appearing on the injury report.
- Jacksonville wide receiver Jakobi Meyers was limited in practice all week with a thumb injury, but wasn’t given an injury designation.
- Jaguars fifth-round rookie tight end Tanner Koziol was a healthy inactive. He may not be active this season unless there is an injury.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
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New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
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Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers
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Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
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Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
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Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
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Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
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Table Notes
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats exclude these plays.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy will be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may assign the target to the nearest receiver while this data will not.
- Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.