Each week, we will analyze some of the best player statistics on PrizePicks with the help of the new PFF Player Prop Tool. Betting insights, matchup data and historical hit rates are just a few of the things the tool offers.
Here are two props that stand out ahead of Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 19.0 fantasy points
Stafford and the first-place Rams take on his former team this weekend when they host the Detroit Lions. The game is expected to be a shootout between two high-powered offenses, and the 55.5 over/under line is the highest for any game this season.
It’s hard to believe, but Stafford is having the best year of his career at 37 years old. His 93.6 PFF overall grade ranks first among 40 qualifying quarterbacks and is a career-high mark, putting him at the forefront of the MVP conversation in mid-December.
He takes on a Detroit defense that has been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. The Lions rank third in PFF run-defense grade (80.7), but injuries to their secondary have piled up, most recently to standout safety Brian Branch (torn Achilles) in Week 14.
No team in the NFL plays man coverage at a higher rate than Detroit, which is good news for Stafford and the Rams, who rank first in EPA per play against it. Stafford is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback versus single-high coverage shells, specifically, something the Lions run at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Additionally, Stafford ranks second in completions of 20-plus yards downfield, whereas the Lions rank last (32nd) in deep completions allowed.
Stafford’s passing yards line (268.5 yards) is another intriguing target, but with the likelihood that the Rams will be throwing in the red zone and their big-play potential through the air overall, I am targeting fantasy points for this matchup.
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Explore Top Player PropsRB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Over 40.5 receiving yards
Sticking with the same Lions-Rams matchup leads me to the other side of the ball. Star running back Jahmyr Gibbs is PFF’s top-graded running back (90.6), and his snap count and usage continue to rise. He has played no fewer than 43 snaps in any of the past four games after doing so just twice in the first nine games of the season.
Gibbs has been most dangerous when utilized as a receiver in recent weeks, catching 26 of 31 targets (83.8%) for 247 yards — an average of 61.7 yards per game. This week, Gibbs takes on a Rams defense that ranks 26th in targets allowed to opposing running backs. As previously mentioned, the points total for the game is a season-high 55.5, and with the Lions being six-point underdogs, they could be forced to move the ball through the air early and often.
Despite a strong 8-5 record, Detroit is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff picture. Expect the Lions to lean on arguably the league’s best running back in a potential back-and-forth, high-scoring showdown with the first-place Rams in Week 15.