NFL Week 16 Betting: Prop bets to target

The new web PFF Player Prop tool is LIVE!

Betting insights, matchup data, historical hit rates and much more are now right at your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting into the swing of things, the PFF Player Prop Tool gives you actionable takes to help you beat the sportsbooks.

These are some of the best player prop bets to target in Week 16 for the 2025 NFL season. 

RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders: Under 46.5 rushing yards (-108) 

Although Ashton Jeanty possesses immense talent, it’s been particularly difficult for the first-year back to find room to operate behind the Raiders' run-blocking unit that ranks 31st in PFF grade (50.8). A failure to generate push up front has resulted in the Raiders producing the second-lowest yards before contact per attempt on designed runs (0.5) in the NFL this season.  

That’s left Jeanty to do the heavy lifting himself, standing as one of three backs with at least 100 carries to record more than 85% of his yardage after first contact. The Texans are one of the most effective teams at bringing backs down, having allowed the third-fewest yards after contact (762) and totaling the fewest missed tackles (34) on runs.  

With the Texans laying 14 points at home, this game projects to be a one-sided affair. Should the Raiders be forced to play from behind, as they frequently have late in the year, there will be limited opportunities to turn to their run game. That scenario has played out multiple times down the stretch, resulting in Jeanty falling below expectations in eight of his past nine games. 

WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers: Over 4.5 receptions (+100)

There’s no doubt as to whom Bryce Young enjoys targeting the most. McMillan has been peppered with more than 100 targets this season, nearly doubling any other Panthers pass catcher. The biggest hindrance to the first-year receiver putting up gaudy numbers has been Carolina’s reluctance to put the ball in the air on early downs, where the offense ranks in the bottom 10 in pass-play rate (51.4%). 

Yet, that balance should see a significant bump against a Buccaneers defense that has been susceptible through the air. Since Week 12, Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in percentage of pass plays allowing positive EPA (54.1%) — a deficiency that opposing offenses have been keen to take advantage of. 

Against a Buccaneers defense that blitzes at the third-highest rate in the NFL, the Panthers will need answers to get the ball out of Young’s hand quickly. That bodes well for McMillan’s volume, as he’s targeted at a top-15 rate (26.85%) among receivers when the quarterback is blitzed. The Panthers have faced a team currently ranked in the top 10 in pass blitz percentage six times this season, and McMillan has surpassed this receptions line in four of those outings.