Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works still shape discussions and influence analysis, this piece focuses on how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and on uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
One of our studies at PFF examined the differences between man and zone coverage. We found that man coverage produced a wider distribution of outcomes, largely because it creates more true one-on-one matchups rather than a battle to find open space. The result is that talent tends to win out more often in man coverage: superior coverage players can erase receivers, while superior receivers have more opportunities to separate and create explosive plays.
The Patriots defense is a tough matchup for the Steelers
The Patriots played man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league last year, and that trend continued in Week 1, when they played man at the fourth-highest rate. There’s a good reason for it: New England boasts two of the NFL’s best man-coverage cornerbacks in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, each of whom allowed fewer than 1.0 yards per route run in man coverage last season.
That creates a particularly difficult matchup for a Steelers receiving corps that struggled against man coverage last season.
None of the players were above average in yards per route run. All but Michael Pittman Jr. were below average in separation rate.
Compounding the man-coverage problem, Rodgers had the quickest time to throw in the NFL last season and, despite facing an anemic Falcons pass rush, still got rid of the ball at one of the quickest rates in the league last week.
Against a much stronger Patriots pass rush, there is unlikely to be much time for Steelers’ receivers, who are already on the wrong side of this matchup, to get open.
Betting tips: The Steelers just led the NFL in pass rate over expected, so I’d be a bit hesitant to target volume numbers here. Instead, I want to bet on an inefficient Steelers passing offense.
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According to past PFF research, one of the most effective plays in the NFL is the perfectly blocked run — or a run where everyone on the offensive line does their job and receives a downgrade in the PFF grading system.
Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have been among the NFL’s best in this area. On the other side, Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defenses have consistently struggled to stop the run.
A season ago, the Colts were at the very top of the league in perfectly blocked run rate, and Jonathan Taylor was one of the NFL’s best at punishing defenses when those opportunities arose, generating nearly 0.45 EPA per perfectly blocked rush.
Now they get a Kansas City defense that ranked eighth-worst in perfectly blocked run rate allowed. The Chiefs weren’t punished as severely on those runs, but there was an element of good fortune involved: Defensive EPA on perfectly blocked runs is not particularly stable year over year, whereas the rate at which defenses allow perfectly blocked runs is much more stable.
Given that interaction, I’m willing to side with Taylor getting the better end of those opportunities if Indianapolis continues to open those holes. Week 1 wasn’t much better for the Chiefs, who allowed a league-high 75% perfectly blocked run rate against the Broncos.
In most circumstances, the running games wouldn’t be my focus in a Colts-Chiefs matchup. But given how under-center and run-heavy the Chiefs were last week, Kansas City’s offense is likely to lean heavily on the ground game.
Betting tips: In a game script where both rushing attacks could become paramount, I think the market is discounting the impact Indianapolis’ perfectly blocked runs could have on this game.