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Kyler Murray puts on a show in his first game back for Minnesota
Building on our matchup angle around Tampa Bay’s struggles to generate pressure, we can lean into the Kyler Murray passing game through an SGP.
In addition to struggling to generate pressure early this season, Tampa Bay has played single-high coverage nearly 70% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL and roughly in line with its approach last season.
Despite rarely facing single-high coverage last season, Murray was dominant when he did, ranking third in EPA per play against those looks. That fits a longer-term trend, as Murray has performed better against single-high than two-high coverage in every season of his career.
Also working in favor of this bet is Tampa Bay’s long-standing tendency to function as a pass-funnel defense, performing much better against the run than the pass. As a result, opponents have consistently thrown against the Buccaneers at one of the highest rates relative to expectation. That trend has continued this season, with opponents passing against Tampa Bay at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
With an injury-hit running back room as well, Murray should be positioned to throw often against a defense that has struggled to generate pressure and relies heavily on a coverage structure he has traditionally performed well against.
SGP Build: 24-1
- Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings: 32+ passing attempts
- Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings: 270+ passing yards
- Minnesota Vikings: -3.5
Patrick Mahomes racks up passing yards against the Dolphins, but he doesn't need many attempts to get there
The Dolphins’ defense has struggled mightily early this season, particularly when it comes to preventing explosive plays. Miami has allowed the fifth-most explosive plays in the NFL while facing deep passes at the seventh-highest rate, despite spending so much time trailing.
Enter Tyquan Thornton, who has emerged as the Chiefs’ primary deep threat. He owns one of the longest average depths of target in the league and has been excellent at creating separation downfield. Against a Miami defense with the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes should have plenty of time to let those deeper routes develop and take a few shots Thornton’s way.
If Mahomes connects with Thornton on one or two of those deep shots, the struggles of Miami’s offense could create exactly the game script we want for the final leg of this SGP. Kansas City could build an early lead and shift toward protecting it, allowing Mahomes to pile up passing yards on explosive plays without needing significant passing volume.
SGP Build: 50-1
- QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 280+ passing yards
- WR Tyquan Thornton, Kansas City Chiefs: 70+ receiving yards
- QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 30.5 passing attempts
Dontayvion Wicks continues as WR2 in Philadelphia
Another week, another SGP featuring Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks missed part of the Week 2 game with an injury, but he has firmly established himself as the WR2 in this offense, running a route on 77% of the Eagles’ passing plays.
Now he gets a Bears defense that has opened the season as the most man-heavy unit in the NFL, playing man coverage on half of its snaps. That should mean plenty of opportunities against fourth-round rookie Malik Muhammad, who has struggled early, particularly in man coverage, where he ranks in the 90th percentile in yards allowed per coverage snap.
Meanwhile, Wicks has been terrific against man coverage, both early this season and throughout his career. He has consistently ranked in the 80th percentile or better in both separation and yards per route run against man.
There is another factor working in favor of this play: The Eagles’ rushing offense has struggled badly to start the season, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL in rush success rate. It would not be surprising to see Philadelphia lean more heavily on the passing game and find success against this Bears defense, creating the volume we need for both Hurts and Wicks.
SGP Build: 50-1
- QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 270+ passing yards and 32+ passing attempts
- WR Dontayvion Wicks, Philadelphia Eagles: 80+ receiving yards
- Philadelphia Eagles: -3.5