Anytime touchdown bets remain one of the most popular player prop markets, but finding value requires looking beyond the shortest odds and biggest names. Here are PFF’s anytime touchdown picks, using data to identify players with favorable scoring opportunities and prices.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs remains as reliable as ever, and he draws a Carolina run defense that allowed 19 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for third-most in the NFL. The Panthers have already given up four rushing scores through three games and once again have one of the league’s worst run defenses by virtually any metric.
Last year, Gibbs shared work with David Montgomery, but this season he has taken all seven of the Lions’ running back carries inside the 5-yard line, converting three into touchdowns. He has four rushing scores through three weeks, second only to Derrick Henry, plus two receiving touchdowns. Gibbs has also been targeted on 29.4% of his 68 routes, ranking fourth among 56 running backs, so there are multiple ways for this to hit.
With Detroit a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday night in a game with a 50.5-point total — the second highest on the slate — there isn’t much reason to overthink Gibbs in this spot. He’s well-positioned to find the end zone again.
RB David Montgomery, Houston Texans
Dallas allowed 22 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for the most in the NFL, and ranked fourth-worst in rush EPA allowed. That profile showed up again in Week 3.
Montgomery is taking on the goal-line role in Houston. He has taken three of the Texans’ four carries inside the 5-yard line and scored twice on 37 carries this season. Woody Marks took the other goal-line carry in Week 3 and scored, so the vulture threat is real in the other direction.
Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a 47.5-point total. This isn’t as strong a spot from a game-script perspective as Gibbs’, but the appeal is Montgomery’s role against a defense that still hasn’t solved last year’s problem. That makes him a long shot I’m interested in.
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Chicago has played more man coverage than every team except the Browns. Wilson has been dominant against man, posting a 42.3% target rate and 4.12 yards per route run, the latter ranking fourth among 82 receivers with at least 15 routes against man coverage.
He has two receiving touchdowns through three weeks and is a threat to score from inside the red zone or anywhere else on the field. The target competition could also be incredibly light, especially if Adonai Mitchell (finger) and Mason Taylor (thumb) are out and Breece Hall’s quad injury keeps him sidelined.