Jameis Winston rights the ship with the help of Isaiah Likely
Winston has looked horrific so far this season, first being thrust into action against the Rams and then playing in brutal New York weather on Sunday. That’s noteworthy because the market appears to have sold on Winston’s passing volume.
We have a pretty good sample of Jameis letting it rip and piling up attempts, which I’m more inclined to trust, especially with the market projecting him for one of the lower passing volumes on the slate (22nd out of 30 quarterbacks).
He now gets a Cardinals defense that has been a major pass funnel. The Cardinals have the third-largest discrepancy between their EPA allowed against the run and pass while allowing the most yards per attempt in the NFL.
The Giants have run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL through three weeks, but this matchup could change that. It’s also their first game with Winston entering the week as the known starter and playing in normal conditions.
And if the Giants are going to throw the ball successfully, who stands to benefit? Isaiah Likely is in as good a spot as anyone. He leads the Giants in routes run and faces a Cardinals defense that plays two-high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.
Against two-high coverage, Likely’s nearly 35% target rate trails only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he ranks in the 80th percentile in separation against those looks. If Jameis has a big day through the air, I think much of that production will flow through Isaiah.
SGP Build: 40-1
- QB Jameis Winston, New York Giants: 280+ passing yards
- QB Jameis Winston, New York Giants: 32+ passing attempts
- New York Giants: -1.5
- TE Isaiah Likely, New York Giants: 70+ receiving yards
Not that much needs to go right for Jalon Daniels to have a big game
This is a classic case of the quarterback uncertainty we’ve been betting on for years. We simply don’t have a large enough sample to know how good some backup or stand-in quarterbacks are — or, more importantly for our purposes, whether they’re capable of putting together a league-average or slightly above-average game.
To varying degrees, the market is pricing Buccaneers rookie Jalon Daniels as though he is already a known commodity. His passing-yardage distribution is being set so low that what the market considers a 90th- or 95th-percentile outcome for Daniels would amount to little more than a league-average passing performance for an NFL quarterback. In other words, he is being priced as though throwing for 225 or 250 yards would require something close to his best game.
In my view, there’s a big difference between betting on a 90th- or 95th-percentile outcome for an established quarterback and betting on a supposedly bad quarterback simply putting together a league-average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL quarterback to (even “accidentally”) throw for 225 or 250 yards.
Daniels also gets a favorable matchup against Green Bay. The Packers rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed when removing turnovers, fourth-worst in pressure rate and second-to-last in quick-pressure rate. They also have the seventh-largest discrepancy between EPA allowed against the run and pass, making this defense a significant pass funnel.
Green Bay has been particularly vulnerable downfield, allowing 1.4 EPA per deep pass, a bottom-five mark in the NFL.
Ultimately, not that much needs to go right for Daniels to throw for 250 yards, drop back enough to reach 32 attempts and do it in a Bucs win. Yet the market is pricing that combination as extremely unlikely.
SGP Build: 40-1
- QB Jalon Daniels, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 250+ passing yards
- QB Jalon Daniels, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 32+ passing attempts
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -2.5
The Bills face a terrific matchup against the New England Patriots
The Patriots have played man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, but they’ll be without their best cornerback, Christian Gonzalez. That gives Buffalo — and D.J. Moore in particular — a terrific matchup.
The sample is small, of course, but Moore has commanded an enormous target share against man coverage and turned that volume into excellent production. His yards per route run against man ranks in the 80th percentile this season.
With the Patriots also dealing with injuries elsewhere on defense, I think their overall defensive numbers are suppressing the pricing here. Allen has a sneakily favorable matchup, and Moore is well-positioned to benefit if Buffalo has the kind of passing day I’m expecting.
SGP Build: ~30-1
- QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 300+ passing yards
- WR DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills: 120+ receiving yards