Houston Texans (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 4.5 receptions (-125)
The Steelers offense has been highly sensitive to pressure this season, posting the fifth-largest drop-off in EPA per dropback when moving from a clean pocket to pressured situations.
That vulnerability is amplified in this matchup against a Texans defense that ranks second in pressure rate, setting up challenging sequences for Pittsburgh to sustain offensive production.
Kenneth Gainwell has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ emergency outlet when pressure arrives. He leads the Steelers in target rate when pressured (22.4%) and ranks inside the top 10 among all qualifying pass-catchers in that situation this season.
That is not the only scenario in which Gainwell factors into the passing game. His 73 receptions rank fourth among all running backs this season. And since Week 11, he has averaged 5.5 receptions per game, clearing this line in five of his eight appearances.