Week 18 is a wrap, and betting lines are now available for the wild-card round. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [Total: 51.5]
Best Bet: Jaguars ML (-102)
The Jaguars have been hot down the stretch, rattling off eight consecutive wins behind a 19.1-point average victory margin to close out the regular season. Although that run didn’t include many high-caliber opponents, it was highlighted by a 14-point road win against the AFC's top seed, the Denver Broncos.
While the Bills will be a true test, the health of quarterback Josh Allen could be cause for concern in Buffalo, as the former MVP has been dealing with a foot injury that may hinder his ability to make plays outside of the pocket. If Allen isn’t 100%, the Bills will likely rely on James Cook and the running game, facing a tough matchup against a Jaguars run defense that ranks seventh in EPA allowed per rush since the start of December.
On the other hand, Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, having generated an impressive 94.0 PFF overall grade since Week 13 — the second-highest mark among quarterbacks over that span. That will be put to the test against a Bills coverage unit that allowed the fewest yards per pass (5.55) in the NFL over the final five games.
The difference-maker in this matchup will be the Jaguars' ability to exploit the Bills' defense, which ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush, likely setting up Travis Etienne to have a big day.
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Explore Top Player PropsGreen Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears [Total: 45.5]
Best Bet: Packers ML (-105)
The Bears' offense came up short against the Lions, who have struggled to stop both the run and pass over the past few months, to close out the regular season. Chicago's defense was also unable to slow down Detroit, with quarterback Jared Goff throwing for 330 yards and running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for 122 rushing yards at nearly 4.5 yards per carry.
This brings us to the key point: The Bears' defense, when not forcing turnovers, has been one of the worst in the NFL, allowing the fourth-most yards per play and producing the sixth-worst success rate.
The Packers‘ offense should be the healthiest it has been in weeks. Wide receivers Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are fully healthy, and running back Josh Jacobs and quarterback Jordan Love got some time off in Week 18. Green Bay's attack has been efficient all season, ranking fourth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate, and it will be in a terrific matchup against the Bears‘ defense.
We expect that offensive advantage to ultimately determine the outcome of the game, as offensive advantages often do in January.