NFL Wild-Card Weekend Betting Notebook

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There are six island games featuring the best teams in the NFL this weekend. What more could we ask for?

We'll aim to make sense of each matchup from a betting perspective, compiling relevant data in a bulleted, narrative form to hit on individual game markets and player props that I like, as well as SGP angles. 

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5) | 45.5 Total

• This is both the largest spread of the weekend and a rematch of a Week 13 game in which the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28.
  • Quarterback Matthew Stafford recorded his lowest PFF passing grade of the season in that game (55.8), with two first-quarter interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
  • The Panthers' passing game was efficient, thanks in part to generating 10.1 yards after the catch per reception in the game.
    • It was one of eight games this season where an offense averaged more than 10 yards after the catch per reception.
• On paper, the matchup sets up well for a much better Stafford showing in his second shot at Carolina’s defense.
  • Carolina ranks 31st in pressure rate this season. Stafford is the highest-graded quarterback in the NFL this season from a clean pocket, and the Rams rank third in EPA per dropback when not pressured
  • The Rams average a league-high 8.1 yards per dropback versus Cover 3.
    • The Panthers are one of four defenses to run Cover 3 on more than 40% of coverage snaps.
  • It seems like the Rams have been overly cautious with Davante Adams’ hamstring injury. Getting him back at close to full health after missing three weeks helps.
• Puka Nacua has a 43% target rate and is averaging 4.6 yards per route run versus Cover 3 this season.
  • He had a modest game by his standards in his first meeting with the Panthers (six catches, 72 yards), but we will be betting over 90.5 receiving yards here.
• Kevin Dotson has been one of the better run-blocking guards in the NFL over the past three seasons in Los Angeles. His status uncertain for this game, which is noteworthy in this matchup with Derrick Brown lining up primarily over the right guard.
  • The Rams' run game is still a top-10 unit in success rate with Dotson off the field this season, but the group ranks first (comfortably) with him playing.
• Bryce Young has the fifth-lowest percentage of pass attempts traveling 10-plus yards downfield in the NFL this season
  • The Rams' defense has given up production on downfield throws late in the season (14.4 yards per attempt on throws 10-plus yards downfield over the past four weeks), but I’m not sure the Panthers will be able to capitalize, particularly with Los Angeles sitting in the top five in pressure rate.
    • Quentin Lake is a noteworthy addition back into the Rams' secondary after being out since Week 12 with an elbow injury.
• The Rams rank 26th in receptions per game allowed and 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to opposing running backs.
  • Chuba Hubbard (2/41/1) and Rico Dowdle (2/21) combined for 60-plus receiving yards in their first meeting with the Rams.
• Carolina's offense has struggled to run the ball effectively down the stretch, averaging 3.6 running back yards per carry since Week 10 (29th in NFL).
  • The Panthers could get back Robert Hunt for this game (out since Week 2), which should give the run game a boost.
• Mitchell Evans anytime touchdown at +850 is interesting as a longshot bet.
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders is out, and the Panthers haven’t been down near the goal line much the past few weeks. Still, Evans has been on the field for four of five snaps inside the 10-yard line over the past two weeks.
    • He has scored twice from inside the five-yard line on the season and is a reliable target for Carolina on low volume.
    • The Panthers will likely have to play catch-up in this game.
• This is a big road spread for a Rams team that hasn’t exactly been playing its best football over the past few weeks, but I don’t want to bet on Carolina in this spot. I won’t have anything on the spread or the total here.

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Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1.5) | 44.5 Total

• The Bears have tended to start slowly this season, and we saw that in both games against the Packers.
  • They trailed 14-3 at halftime in Week 14.
  • They trailed 6-0 at halftime in Week 16.
• This isn’t just restricted to the two Packers-Bears game; Green Bay has been a better first-half offense over the course of the full season by a decent margin.
  • Green Bay ranks fifth in first-half success rate this year. Chicago places 21st.
• I like the Packers to win this game, but I like them to win the first half (-0.5 at +102 on DraftKings) more.
• The Packers' passing offense has been excellent from a clean pocket all season.
  • The unit ranks second in EPA per dropback from a clean pocket.
  • That’s noteworthy in a matchup against a Chicago defense that has struggled to generate pressure all season, ranking 28th in pressure rate.
• Packers quarterback Jordan Love got injured in the second game against Chicago, but he and backup Malik Willis combined for 8.8 yards per attempt in two games against the Bears this season.
  • Love ranks second in the NFL in yards per attempt from a clean pocket (9.2) this year.
  • The biggest concern with Love's passing-yardage overs is a run-heavy game from both offenses that limits possessions and passing volume, but I have enough confidence in his ability to be efficient to like the over on his passing yardage line at around 220 yards.
• Over the past two seasons, wide receiver Christian Watson has 256 receiving yards on just 66 routes against Chicago (3.88 yards per route run).
  • The Bears have allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards in the NFL this season.
  • I will be on Love to Watson plus Packers winning SGPs.
• This is also a matchup where the Packers should be able to find success running the football. (Chicago ranks 29th in average yards allowed per run play.)
  • The Packers gained 309 rushing yards on 70 attempts (4.4 yards per carry) in two games against the Bears this season.
  • Josh Jacobs is fully off the injury report and likely as healthy as he has been in weeks after sitting out in Week 18.
• It was put on full display in Week 17 against the Ravens, but the Packers’ late-season run defense struggles haven’t been limited to just that game.
  • Even removing Week 17, Green Bay ranks 29th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 14 (would be last if including Week 17).
  • Injuries to Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt have clearly hurt the defensive line.
• This is not a good matchup in which to be shaky against the run, but both games against Chicago came in the stretch outlined above, and Green Bay was in position to win both games despite Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift combining for 4.7 yards per carry.
  • Monangai outcarried Swift 22 to 17 in the two Green Bay games with the score within a touchdown. I prefer to bet his overs at lower lines over Swift's if I'm targeting the Bears' rushing attack.
• Rome Odunze is expected to return from the foot injury that has held him out since Week 14.
  • I am not targeting Odunze in matchups like this against a very zone-heavy defense. His target rate goes from 25% versus man to 20% versus zone this season.
• Luther Burden III, on the other hand, has been very productive against zone coverage (26% target rate, 2.91 yards per route run, 84.2 PFF receiving grade).
  • Colston Loveland has also produced against zone, but Green Bay has limited receiving production from tight ends this season, ranking sixth in receiving yards per game allowed to the position.
    • I have an interest in Loveland’s under 40.5 yards prop (29 and 30 receiving yards in two games against the Packers this season).
    • Expect the Bears to lean heavily on their run game as long as they can if the game is neutral or better for them from a game-script perspective.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) | 51.5 Total

• Jacksonville is one of the hottest teams in the NFL entering the postseason, winners of eight straight. The team ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play and first in EPA per play allowed on defense over that win streak.
  • The passing offense (third in EPA per dropback since Week 11) has been the driver. The addition of Jakobi Meyers, the return of Brenton Strange from injury and an aggressive Trevor Lawrence (top five in average target depth since Week 11) have made the Jaguars a dangerous attack.
    • Four of those games came against the Colts and Titans, which certainly helps Jacksonville's numbers.
• Against the Bills, the Jaguars should want to lean on Travis Etienne and the run game, though.
  • Buffalo is allowing 4.8 yards per designed run (second highest in the NFL).
  • The Jaguars haven’t been as efficient on the ground as through the air (30th in rushing success rate since Week 11).
• Jacksonville has passed at a higher rate over expectation, but teams have opted to run more on Buffalo, which has limited passing production against them. Yet, the Bills rank just 16th in team PFF coverage grade.
  • Buffalo is also dealing with injuries to cornerback Maxwell Hairston (which could put Tre'Davious White into more of a full-time role), safety Jordan Poyer and linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard.
  • Buffalo is still a top-10 team in two-high coverage rate.
    • The Jaguars are averaging a league-high 7.7 yards per dropback versus two-high over their eight-game winning streak.
• I like the idea of betting around Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing game leading the team to a win, particularly since it’s unlikely that they win in blowout fashion with Josh Allen on the other side (which could push passing volume).
  • Parker Washington has been excellent out of the slot for the Jaguars over the back half of the season (a high-volume role in Liam Coen’s offense) and has averaged nearly 19 yards per reception against two-high since Week 11.
    • With Meyers, Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. all priced fairly similarly from a receiving yardage perspective, I prefer to bet on Washington.
• The other side of the ball is interesting in that the Bills are a run-first team (and good at it), but the Jaguars have been a pass funnel defensively.
  • The Bills have shown the ability to run the ball effectively even against good run defenses (including last year against the Broncos in the wild-card round), but James Cook’s lines are set pretty fairly, in my opinion, at 18.5 attempts and around 80 rushing yards.
    • I don’t have an interest in betting either side there.
• Dalton Kincaid is the Bills’ best receiving option (leads Buffalo in PFF receiving grade, target rate and yards per route run), and the Jaguars rank just 23rd in receiving yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends.
  • The Bills have pretty clearly been limiting Kincaid down the stretch, and my assumption is that was to get him back closer to full health for the postseason.
  • In what should be a competitive game against a pass-funnel defense, there is upside for Kincaid if he steps back into more of a full-time role.
• The experience that Allen and the Bills have in the postseason can’t just be dismissed, but Jacksonville is healthier and has a better roster. I like the Jaguars moneyline as small home underdogs in this matchup.

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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) | 44.5 Total

• Both of these offenses have been fairly sensitive to pressure, but only one defense has shown the ability to consistently generate it (Eagles).
  • Rank in EPA per dropback difference clean pocket versus pressured | 2025 season
    • 49ers: first
      • They are slightly better if looking at only when Brock Purdy is in at quarterback
    • Eagles: 10th
  • Pressure rate rank | 2025 season
    • Eagles: fifth
    • 49ers: 30th
• This is coupled with the fact that the Eagles are likely getting star tackle Lane Johnson back, while the status of the 49ers’ Trent Williams is in doubt.
  • Williams and Ricky Pearsall were not practicing early in the week after missing Week 18.
• San Francisco is also beat up on the defensive line, with Keion White and Kalia Davis dealing with injuries. All of that points to Philadelphia having a fairly sizable advantage in the trenches.
• The 49ers' defense has not been able to overcome early-season injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, among others.
  • San Francisco ranks 31st in defensive success rate this season.
• The Eagles' offense has had its issues, but this matchup shouldn’t cause many issues for them, particularly in the run game.
  • Since Week 14, the 49ers rank 30th in rushing yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.7).
  • The issues for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles' rushing offense have primarily come through plays killed by backfield penetration. When they generate one-plus yards before contact, the Eagles rank eighth in EPA per run.
  • There is a path to building SGPs around a big day from Barkley on the ground.
• The 49ers have given up more production to opposing slot receivers and tight ends than they have to players lined up out wide.
  • 49ers' passing yards allowed rank by alignment
    • Wide: ninth
    • Slot: 28th 
    • Inline TE: 27th
  • San Francisco suffered yet another injury at linebacker (Tatum Bethune), with Dee Winters and Luke Gifford also dealing with injuries.
  • I have the most interest in Dallas Goedert‘s overs/alts in Philadelphia's passing attack.
• The statuses of Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall are (obviously) important to monitor leading up to the game.
  • I think there’s a decent chance that the San Francisco offense struggles against a defense of Philadelphia’s caliber.
    • Brock Purdy has played only three defenses in the top half of the NFL in EPA per play allowed (Seahawks twice, Jaguars and Browns). He has a 74.0 PFF passing grade, 6.8 yards per attempt, five touchdowns and five interceptions in those four games, compared to a 91.7 PFF passing grade, 8.3 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in the other five games against lesser defenses
      • San Francisco's offense is still capable of success, but I think the Eagles' defense has a talent advantage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has fared well against 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan (granted, prior matchups were pre-2018).
• If I were going to bet on anything for the 49ers' offense, it would be Christian McCaffrey in the passing game.
  • Eagles have been excellent against opposing tight ends (second in receiving yards per game allowed to the position), and if Kittle is limited by the matchup and Pearsall is not 100% (if he’s able to go at all), the 49ers’ best chance to manufacture offense will be getting the ball to McCaffrey in the passing game.
• I have bets in on Eagles -4.5 and under 45 points in the game, expecting San Francisco to struggle to move the ball and Philadelphia to be able to win a lower-scoring game.
  • This is a great matchup for Philadelphia offensively, but I still don’t trust the offense to pile on points.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5) | 45.5 Total

• The two biggest storylines around this game are Los Angeles’ offensive line attrition and the lack of quality competition that the Patriots have faced.
  • Los Angeles has (by far) the lowest-graded offensive line in the NFL this season (48.6 — more than 10 points lower than the next-closest unit).
    • But the Patriots' defensive line has been a bottom-10 graded unit versus both the run and pass since Week 10.
      • The statuses for several players (Harold Landry, Khyiris Tonga and linebacker Robert Spillane) are still up in the air for Sunday.
• New England has also faced one of the softest schedules of opposing quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Beyond Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (for part of a game), they’ve played the following:
  • Spencer Rattler, Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Cam Ward, Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr., Jaxson Dart, Joe Flacco, Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers, Quinn Ewers, Dillon Gabriel and Brady Cook
• For as many issues as the Chargers have had protecting him, Herbert will be just the second quarterback with a top-10 PFF passing grade this season that New England has played (Allen is the other).
  • Baltimore and Buffalo both averaged at least 6.7 yards per dropback against the Patriots (even with neither passing offense being at their best this season).
    • For reference, only seven passing offenses averaged that number over the course of the season.
  • I have some interest in Herbert's passing overs in this matchup. I think the Chargers will be able to have some success through the air.
• New England has been weaker against tight ends (21st in receiving yards per game allowed) than wide receivers (sixth).
  • Oronde Gadsden II ranks second on the offense in target rate and yards per route run against single-high (which New England runs at a top-10 rate).
  • Herbert plus Gadsden plus the Chargers moneyline is something I’ll look to build around in SGPs.
• On the other side, the Patriots' offense hasn’t faced a great slate of opposing defenses, either, but I tend to believe in Drake Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels orchestrating one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, regardless of the opponent.
  • This isn’t an easy matchup against Jesse Minter’s defense, though. Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 by nearly any overall efficiency metric over the back half of the season.
• The Chargers do a good job of limiting explosive passes, in particular (fifth in explosive pass rate allowed), which is something the Patriots have lived on this year (first in explosive pass rate).
  • Stefon Diggs is targeted at a top-10 rate among wide receivers versus two-high coverages, and his snap count is more secure with Mack Hollins out.
    • If New England needs to march down the field on longer drives, I think Diggs' receptions over makes sense (I prefer pushing it up on alts rather than betting over 4.5 in the -140 range).
• I lean towards the Chargers covering with this line sitting at over a field goal. I believe they have the better defense and I'm not sure the Patriots will be able to fully capitalize on Los Angeles' offensive line issues.

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Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) | 38.5 Total

• We’ve seen glimpses of the “old” Aaron Rodgers this season, but that has typically come against defenses that haven’t been able to generate much pass rush
  • Ravens (twice), Dolphins (32nd in pressure rate over the second half of the season) and Lions (23rd in pressure rate over the second half of the season)
• The Texans' defense (first in pressure rate since Week 10) should be able to impact Rodgers, which reduces the chances of a big passing output game from Pittsburgh.
  • The Steelers ranked dead last in passing success rate on pressured dropbacks this season.
• Because of that, I’m expecting the Steelers to attempt to come out and try to get a run game going and to get the ball out of Rodgers' hands quickly in the passing game.
  • We have seen some of the more efficient rushing performances against Houston come in the back half of the season.
    • Bills vs. Texans in Week 12: 5.8 yards per carry on designed runs (highest versus Houston)
    • Raiders vs. Texans in Week 16: 5.4 yards per carry (second highest)
• The Steelers’ best path to a victory offensively is condensing this game and running the ball successfully, and they have been efficient on the ground over the second half of the year.
  • Top rushing offenses by average yards per designed run since Week 10 (includes penalty yardage)
    • Dolphins: 5.0
    • Ravens: 4.9
    • Rams: 4.8
    • Patriots: 4.7
    • Steelers: 4.4
      • Unlike some teams on this list (like the Patriots), the Steelers also rank in the top 10 in EPA per run and rushing success rate.
  • Houston has dealt with defensive line injuries to Mario Edwards and Tim Settle.
• Quick passes don't necessarily equate to exclusively underneath passes. Rodgers is tied with Matthew Stafford for the most deep pass attempts (21) and completions (11) on throws in 2.5 seconds or less this season.
  • The Texans are an aggressive defense that can be tested vertically (saw it multiple times with the Colts' Alec Pierce in Week 18).
    • Kamari Lassiter missed Week 18, which was a significant loss for Houston. Expect him to be ready for this game — a big lift for the Texans' pass defense.
  • I don’t mind betting on D.K. Metcalf longest reception/Rodgers longest completion to attack that angle.
• There were times this season where the Steelers' defense really struggled to stop the run, but they ranked second in EPA allowed per run play over the last four weeks of the regular season.
  • That stretch included games against the Dolphins, the Lions and the Ravens, along with the Browns.
  • The Steelers' talented defensive front will have an advantage against the Houston offensive line.
    • The Texans have struggled to run on anyone effectively, ranking 30th in rushing success rate.
• That puts a lot of pressure on CJ Stroud to win the game for Houston against a beatable Steelers secondary.
  • Joey Porter Jr. ranks in the top 10 among all defensive backs in average advanced PFF coverage grade on the season. He can at least limit Nico Collins when lined up on him.
• The Steelers are another defense that has given up production to slot receivers (30th in total receiving yards allowed, 31st in yards per target allowed).
  • Christian Kirk hasn’t been productive for the Texans this season, but this is a spot where I think he has upside, with Houston unlikely to have success on the ground in a plus matchup.
  • Most routes in slot for Texans | Last four weeks of regular season
    • Christian Kirk: 57
    • Dalton Schultz: 36
      • This is also a strong spot for Schultz.
• It’s not an ideal matchup for the Steelers' offense, but I think they’ll be able to muddy up the game enough (with the Texans having their own offensive concerns) to make this a close game late. I lean toward Steelers +3 getting the points at home.