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Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams may find it difficult to generate explosive plays downfield in this matchup, given the strength of the defenses they’re facing. The Chargers have been the NFL’s best defense against passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield, allowing a league-low 40.1 passer rating on such attempts. Houston isn’t far behind, giving up the fifth-lowest passer rating (74.2) on deep attempts.
Each defense has also picked off five deep passes, tied for the fourth-most in the league this season.
With vertical shots likely limited, the outcome could come down to pass protection and how each quarterback performs under pressure.
Los Angeles has struggled up front, allowing a league-high 40% pressure rate, but Justin Herbert has still held up well, posting a 75.9 passer rating under pressure, the 10th-best mark among quarterbacks.
Houston has been more solid in protection, surrendering a 28% pressure rate — the 11th-lowest in the NFL — but C.J. Stroud has been less efficient when pressured, with a 67.2 passer rating that ranks 20th.
From PFF's Key Insights:
- Justin Herbert ranks third in the NFL in total scramble yards with 398. Houston’s defense generates pressure at the fourth-highest rate in the league, which could force Herbert to rely more on his legs in this matchup.
- Nico Collins is targeted at the 12th-highest rate among wide receivers against zone coverage, and the Chargers play zone at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.
- Ladd McConkey ranks 19th among wide receivers in target rate when defenses generate pressure, which could lead to increased opportunities against a Houston defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate.
- Christian Kirk has been more effective this season against single-high coverage, posting the fourth-largest grade gap between MOFC (middle of the field closed) and MOFO (middle of the field open) coverages. He is unlikely to see much single-high coverage against the Chargers, who rank fourth in MOFO rate.