Predicting fifth-year option decisions for the 2023 NFL Draft class

• The Colts likely decline Anthony Richardson’s option: After a lost season, Richardson’s time with the Colts could be up.

• 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time:50 minutes

One of the first steps of the 2026 offseason is here. Every team that drafted a player in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft has a decision to make with fifth-year options. Some options feel clear-cut, while others deserve and need a little more thinking time.

We’ll go around the league and predict whether each team will accept or decline the fifth-year options available.

1. QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

The Bryce Young experience in Carolina has ebbed and flowed like a furious tide at times. The former No. 1 pick had a less-than-encouraging rookie season, earning a 56.4 PFF grade while completing 59.8% of his passes for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The flashes of creativity that convinced the Panthers to draft Young were rare, and his size — all 5-foot-10 and 205 lbs of him — just looked to be too much of a hindrance.

Young was promptly benched by the Panthers two games into the 2024 season, but after Andy Dalton suffered an injury midway through the season, Young stepped back in and looked like a new guy. From Week 8 onward, Young compiled an 83.2 PFF grade, 13th-highest among quarterbacks, and had the second-most big-time throws (26) and second-highest big-time throw rate (7.7%) in the NFL. Young’s composure in the pocket looked reborn, too, dropping his 24.5% pressure-to-sack rate in his rookie year to a low 14.9%.

Those improvements in 2024 set the stage for a much better 2025. Young led the Panthers to their first playoff appearance since 2017, winning the NFC South with an 8-9 record. He generated a 71.0 PFF grade and completed 62.7% of his passes for 3,275 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions behind an excellent Panthers offensive line.

The addition of Tetairoa McMillan (79.3 grade; 20th) gave Young a true No. 1 receiver for the first time in his career as well. Although doubts around his size and athleticism will persist, the current that has been Young’s career to date has started to settle down. There’s a sense of stability in Carolina that hasn’t existed for a long time, and while Young may not be able to ever break into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, there’s a lot of good in consistency.

The Panthers should accept Young’s fifth-year option under the guise that an extension probably isn’t on the horizon yet. Young does still have a lot to prove before the Panthers can feel comfortable committing mega money to him.

Prediction: Accept

2. QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Let’s be clear: The Texans have to accept C.J. Stroud’s (65.0 grade; 31st) fifth-year option. The NFL has seen what Stroud is capable of, albeit with the best stretch of his young career coming in his rookie season, and giving up on that would be a panic move. But over the last two seasons, it’s fair to say Stroud has regressed.

The former No. 2 pick had an extraordinary rookie season, recording an 83.2 PFF grade while completing 64.0% of his passes for 4,557 yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions while leading the Texans to their first AFC South title since 2019. Stroud showed poise, playmaking and accuracy and looked at ease commandeering the Texans’ offense.

That confidence dissipated a little in 2024. Stroud was sacked 63 times in the regular season and postseason, and threw eight more interceptions as the Texans’ offense finished 18th in EPA per play. The sky hadn’t fallen, but Houston moving on from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and completely retooling the offensive line were signs that the team wasn’t happy with the direction.

In 2025, the Texans found success with one of the best defenses in the NFL and finished the season with a 12-5 record, their best since 2012. Meanwhile, the offense concluded the year 24th in EPA per play while Stroud compiled a 65.0 PFF grade in 16 games, the lowest of his career.

The problems really arose for Stroud in the postseason. His 32.2 PFF grade in the playoffs was the second-lowest among quarterbacks, and Stroud had 10 turnover-worthy plays in just two games — the most by a quarterback in the playoffs since Carson Palmer in 2015. He played like a shell of a quarterback.

Those two games alone could change the narrative on Stroud. While it feels like the quarterback is trending in the wrong direction, the Texans have to, and will, pick up his fifth-year option. They’ll hopefully invest in the offensive line this offseason and set the stage for Stroud to come back strong in Year 4. It’s a rocky path, but the Texans should believe that Stroud can still be a top-tier starter in the NFL.

Prediction: Accept

3. EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans

While there’ll naturally be some speculation and doubt around Stroud, the same can’t be said for Will Anderson Jr. (93.1 grade; 1st). The Texans drafted Anderson one pick after Stroud in the 2023 NFL Draft and haven’t looked back. Anderson was viewed as a safe prospect, someone with a high floor thanks to his excellent ability to set the edge and defend the run. If he could continue to develop his tool bag as a pass-rusher, he could grow into a perennial All-Pro. It didn’t take long.

Anderson has hit the ground running in his first three seasons in the NFL, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and securing an All-Pro nod in 2025. Since 2023, Anderson has 223 pressures, the sixth-most in the NFL, and 30 sacks, the 11th-most. His PFF pass-rushing grade has improved year over year, too. Anderson’s 92.5 pass-rushing grade in 2025 was the fourth-highest among edge rushers, and he led the NFL with 102 pressures.

There aren’t many force multipliers like Anderson in the NFL. His postseason was on another planet, too. Anderson paced all defenders with four sacks and tallied nine pressures in two games, compiling a 93.2 pass-rushing grade.

While Anderson’s pass-rushing has reached near-elite status, his ability against the run has been there from Day 1. Anderson has recorded 52 stops and 25 tackles for a loss or no gain since 2023. The list of edge rushers better than Anderson is short, and getting shorter.

Prediction: Accept

4. QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson entered the NFL having dropped back only 455 times in college. The explosive signs were there — he posted a 5.5% big-time throw rate in his final season in college — but so little time at the position just means that Richardson was incredibly raw and needed significant reps to develop. Three seasons in, those reps haven’t come. Richardson has started just 15 games in three years and suffered numerous injuries in that time that have slowed down his development. He was also benched midway through the 2024 season after taking himself out of the game vs. the Texans in Week 8. That can’t have gone down well within the coaching staff, even if Richardson returned to start another five games.

Along with Richardson’s inability to stay on the field are the accuracy issues. His 46.1% accuracy rate was the lowest among 46 qualified quarterbacks in 2024, and no quarterback had a higher rate of uncatchable passes thrown than his 33.6%.

It’s hard to know what comes next for Richardson; he’s stuck in the cycle of being physically gifted but needing the snaps to develop. He’s just not going to get those reps in Indianapolis, with the Colts likely looking to re-sign Daniel Jones in free agency — which makes Richardson’s situation even tougher. With his fifth-year option sitting at around $23 million, there’s a more likely chance the Colts look to move on from Richardson this offseason.

Prediction: Decline

5. CB Devon Witherspoon, SeattleSeahawks

After just three seasons in the NFL, Devon Witherspoon (90.1 grade; 1st) is one of the league’s top cornerbacks and a Super Bowl champion. The former Illinois stud has been a major player from Day 1, compiling an 84.1 PFF grade in his rookie season, and has only gotten better.

Witherspoon’s calling card has been his versatility. He’s shone as a boundary corner, as a slot corner and while occasionally lining up in the box. In 2025 alone, Witherspoon played in the slot 237 times and as an outside corner 366 times. The splits across his three-year career are near-identical, too, with Witherspoon playing 1,189 snaps in the slot and 1,104 snaps on the outside. In those three seasons, Witherspoon has accrued 20 pass breakups in the regular season, 25th among all cornerbacks in the NFL over that time, and his 86.4 PFF coverage grade is seventh.

That versatility lends more to just where Witherspoon lines up. He’s a modern-day cornerback, one that’s just as competent defending the run as he is in coverage. Witherspoon has secured 97 stops in three seasons, and has the fourth-most tackles for a loss or no gain among cornerbacks in that time. On top of that, Witherspoon has earned a PFF run-defense grade over 80.0 in all three seasons in the NFL. A no-brainer for the Seahawks.

Prediction: Accept

6. T Paris Johnson Jr., ArizonaCardinals

The Cardinals grabbed Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. (76.6 grade; 23rd) with the No. 6 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, hoping the young tackle could help revitalize an offensive line in need of an injection of youth. Johnson was viewed as the best offensive lineman in the class and someone who could be a cornerstone of any offensive line for the next 10 years.

Johnson has shown flashes in three seasons, demonstrating high-level pass- and run-blocking on the left side of the Cardinals’ offensive line, but staying healthy has been something of an issue. Johnson has played just 26 of an available 34 games over the last two seasons, including just 12 games in 2025 with a sprained MCL costing him time. Despite that, the Cardinals have to concentrate on what a healthy Johnson gives them.

His 74.1 PFF pass-blocking grade since entering the league is 31st among 98 qualified tackles, and Johnson has compiled pass-blocking grades of above 77.0 in the last two seasons in addition to run-blocking grades of over 70.0. Johnson is still young and developing, but there’s more than enough good tape to believe he can be a lynchpin on the Cardinals’ offensive line. Johnson could take a leap if the group around him continues to improve.

Prediction: Accept

7. EDGE Tyree Wilson, Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders’ dalliances with first-round picks haven’t always been fruitful. The team has likely struck gold with Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers in the last two drafts, but before that, its hit rate was suspect at best. Unfortunately, there’s a chance that Tyree Wilson falls into that bracket. The former Red Raider was perceived as a raw pass-rusher, but someone with immense upside due to his physical traits.

Three seasons in, there have been developments in Wilson’s game, but not enough for this status as a former top-10 pick. Wilson generated 35 pressures and five sacks in 2025, adding a career-high 21 stops, but his 57.6 PFF grade was 97th among edge defenders and a drop-off from his 66.7 grade a year ago.

Wilson needs to take a step forward as a pass-rusher, but it just hasn’t happened yet. His 8.5% pass-rush win rate since 2023 is 106th out of 126 edge rushers, while his 10.6% pressure rate is 82nd. Wilson just hasn’t been able to carve out a full-time role for himself, playing just 463 defensive snaps in 17 games in 2025. The Raiders could still believe in the physical upside, but it’s hard to buy into accepting his fifth-year option, even at $13 million.

Prediction: Decline

8. RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Not many players enter the draft cycle with the hype of Bijan Robinson. The former Texas Longhorn was viewed as a can’t-miss prospect despite his positional value at running back, and arguably the most talented player in the class. So far, Robinson has lived up to and likely exceeded expectations.

Robinson was the NFL’s scrimmage yards leader in 2025 and earned first-team All-Pro honors for the first time in his career. He carried the ball 287 times for 1,478 yards and seven touchdowns, adding 79 catches for 820 yards and four receiving touchdowns, and Robinson’s 86.6 PFF grade was third among running backs. He also forced a league-high 86 missed tackles in 17 games and averaged 3.95 yards after contact per attempt, the second-most in the league.

A lot has been said in recent years about drafting running backs in the first round, and whether or not it’s smart decision-making from NFL franchises. But Robinson has been an absolute home run for the Falcons, and he’ll likely become the highest-paid running back in the NFL in the next year or so. First, Atlanta will accept his fifth-year option.

Prediction: Accept

Bijan Robinson's PFF Grades by Season

9. DI Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL collectively gulped when the Eagles drafted Georgia’s Jalen Carter with the ninth overall pick in 2023, and three seasons into his career, Carter has taken the league by storm and become one of the game’s top defensive tackles. Injuries cost him nearly half of his 2025 season, but Carter still made an impact.

Since entering the league, Carter has registered 171 pressures and 18 sacks, while his 13.5% pass-rush win rate is 15th among defensive tackles in that time, and his 89.9 PFF pass-rush grade is fifth. Carter is an explosive athlete, but hasn’t impacted the run game as much as hoped; for instance, he notched a 37.3 PFF run-defense grade in 2025. But he’s still someone you can build a defense around, especially in today’s NFL, where interior pressure matters as much as ever.

Carter was a phenom during the Eagles’ run to the Super Bowl in 2024. His 75 pressures were the third-most among defensive tackles, but Carter took an extra step in the postseason. His 22 pressures led all defenders, and Carter proved he could be one of the best in the NFL.

Even in a year marred by missed time, Carter was still one of the best players at his position, and he’ll only continue to get better. Keeping him in Philadelphia is a no-brainer.

Prediction: Accept

10. T Darnell Wright, ChicagoBears

The early career arc of Darnell Wright is symbolic of the Bears’ offensive line improvements over the last season. Wright struggled in his rookie season, allowing 51 pressures and seven sacks, but has since turned a corner and become a stable force at right tackle for the Chicago Bears. Wright earned an 80.8 PFF grade in 2025, 15th among tackles, and garnered a second-team All-Pro selection.

His game has always been predicated on what he can do in the run game. Wright is one of the best people-movers in the business, using his power and athleticism to seal the edge, create rushing lanes, get out in space and dominate defenders. Since entering the league in 2023, Wright’s 82.2 PFF run-blocking grade is ninth among offensive tackles.

Wright’s pass-blocking has improved over the last three seasons, too. His sacks allowed from 2024 to 2025 dropped from six to three, and Wright gave up six fewer pressures on almost 80 more pass-blocking snaps. Further, his 3.6% pressure rate surrendered was the seventh-lowest in the league. Wright has cemented himself as the Bears’ right tackle of the present and the future.

Prediction: Accept

11. G Peter Skoronski, TennesseeTitans

Despite spending the entirety of his college career at left tackle for Northwestern, the Titans drafted Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick and immediately had designs to move him inside to guard. Skoronski was incredibly refined coming out of college, but his lack of length meant he was always destined to shift inside. So far, it’s proven to be a smart decision from the Titans.

Skoronski’s NFL career started in rocky fashion, compiling a 61.6 PFF grade and allowing 32 pressures with five sacks in 14 games as a rookie. However, he has found his groove over the last two campaigns and was one of the best guards in the NFL in 2025. Skoronski’s 79.0 PFF grade in 2025 was fifth among guards, and he cut his pressure rate allowed down to 3.5%, the seventh-lowest at the position. Moreover, his 84.5 PFF pass-blocking grade was the second-highest in the NFL.

A big aid in Skoronski’s development was the Titans’ offensive line improving as a whole, but also due to his own growth as a run-blocker. Skoronski posted a 54.4 PFF run-blocking grade in 2024, but that jumped up to 73.2, 12th among guards, in 2025. Skoronski continues to grow into one of the best guards in the NFL, and the Titans will be wise to keep him in the building for as long as possible.

Prediction: Accept

12. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

The Lions’ decision to draft Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was widely mocked. After a 9-8 season in 2022, Detroit was trending in the right direction, but the selection of Gibbs came as a surprise — especially as the team needed help on defense. However, Gibbs has proven critics wrong in his first three seasons in the league and has ascended to the status of an elite running back.

Gibbs has rushed for 3,829 yards and 44 touchdowns in three seasons, the sixth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns among running backs. His 108 explosive rushes also rank fourth at the position. Gibbs has been every bit as good as the Lions would have hoped, and even behind a weaker offensive line in 2025, he was on top form with an 85.6 PFF grade.

The one-two punch of Gibbs and David Montgomery has been the fulcrum of the Lions’ offense since Gibbs was drafted. Though the Lions could move on from Montgomery this offseason, Gibbs should remain a linchpin of the Lions' offense. Another easy decision.

Prediction: Accept

13. EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers

The Packers drafted former Iowa Hawkeye Lukas Van Ness in the hopes that he could add some punch to a defensive line that had struggled to defend the run in recent seasons, while also believing he could develop as a pass-rusher. Van Ness had eight sacks and 43 pressures in his final collegiate season, but there was room for growth.

On the whole, Van Ness’s three years in the NFL feel underwhelming. He’s yet to establish himself as a starter on the Packers’ defense, failing to play more than 500 snaps in a season. Though it doesn’t help that injuries reduced him to just nine games in 2025, last year might have been the best run of Van Ness’s career. He finished the campaign with a career-high 75.7 PFF grade and 27 pressures while adding a 16.3% pass-rush win rate, 19th among edge rushers.

It’s come at the right time, especially with Micah Parsons suffering a torn ACL toward the end of the 2025 season. If Parsons is not fully healthy ahead of the 2026 season, Van Ness could play an important role early on. That means the Packers could still elect to accept Van Ness’s fifth-year option. It’s a tight call, but his improvement in 2025 might tip it.

Prediction: Accept

14. T Broderick Jones, PittsburghSteelers

There’s been a lot of change for Broderick Jones in his first three seasons in the NFL. The Steelers drafted Jones as a left tackle, but he spent the majority of his first two seasons in the NFL at right tackle. In 2025, Jones moved back to the blindside and compiled a 57.7 PFF grade before a Week 12 injury cut his season short.

His play in three seasons has left a lot to be desired. Jones was penalized 10 times in the 2024 season, and his 54.6 PFF pass-blocking grade was 76th out of 87 offensive tackles. Last year, his 59.0 pass-blocking grade was a career high and 71st out of 95 tackles. Better, but Jones allowed six sacks, and his 6.6% pressure rate was 43rd-highest among 88 tackles.

Like Van Ness, Jones is on the fence, but the fact that he has improved from 2024 is on his side. Yet his option currently sits at around $20 million, and the Steelers could be in a curious spot heading into the 2027 season. An aging roster needs young players to cling on to, but Jones might not be one of them.

Prediction: Decline

15. EDGE Will McDonald IV, New York Jets

The Jets' decision to draft Will McDonald IV was an interesting one. The team selected Jermaine Johnson in the first round a year prior, but dipped back into the edge defender market a year later to take the former Iowa State Cyclone. McDonald was a lean and undersized but quick-off-the-mark prospect.

His impact for the Jets has predictably been made as a pass-rusher. McDonald has compiled 39.4 and 41.4 PFF run-defense grades in his last two seasons, but has 103 pressures and 19 sacks in that same span with 38 stops. McDonald hasn’t played as many early downs, but the Jets have allowed him to generally pin his ears back and get after the quarterback on passing downs.

McDonald’s 13.2% pressure rate is 49th among edge rushers since entering the league in 2023, and while that figure dropped to 11.9% in 2025, there’s still enough to hope that McDonald can continue to be a useful pass-rusher. But, he has to get better against the run. At $15 million, it’s a chance the Jets can afford to take.

Prediction: Accept

16. CB Emmanuel Forbes, Los Angeles Rams

Not many draft experts expected Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes to be the second cornerback off the board in 2023. Forbes was excellent in coverage and a ball hawk, snagging 13 interceptions in three seasons with the Bulldogs, but his size and build were difficult to project. Forbes was in the 0th percentile for weight among cornerbacks, and there were concerns whether he could hold up against some of the bigger receivers in the NFL.

Forbes’ stint with the Commanders didn’t last long. He recorded a 50.9 PFF grade in his rookie campaign and played just six games in 2024 before the Commanders parted ways with Forbes. Eventually, Forbes ended up with the Rams near the end of 2024 and played a real role for the defense in 2025.

His 53.8 PFF grade was the highest of his career, and Forbes tallied 13 pass breakups, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. Yet, his 713 yards allowed in coverage were the sixth-most. Forbes was excellent at times and the best cornerback on the Rams’ roster, but still someone who could be beaten downfield. The Rams will likely aggressively target cornerbacks in free agency and the draft, which means Forbes could be on the outside looking in.

Prediction: Decline

17. CB Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots

From one cornerback who didn’t pan out with the team that drafted him, to one who has been a smash hit from the word “go.” Christian Gonzalez earned an 80.8 PFF grade in his first season in the NFL, though he played just 209 total snaps with a torn labrum cutting his season short. The former Oregon Duck flashed more than enough potential in such a short span before breaking out in 2024 and solidifying himself as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks in 2025.

Gonzalez allowed just 46 receptions for 498 yards on 106 targets last season, and his 43.4% reception rate was the lowest among cornerbacks — not to mention one of the best in recent NFL history. Since 2023, Gonzalez has secured an 85.9 PFF coverage grade, the seventh-highest among cornerbacks, and his 63.1 NFL passer rating allowed when targeted is the second-lowest in that span.

The Patriots’ unlikely run to the Super Bowl in 2025 ended in disappointment, but it allowed Gonzalez to shine on the brightest stage. He single-handedly kept the Patriots in the game, breaking up three passes on an 80.6 PFF grade. Not only will the Patriots accept Gonzalez’s fifth-year option, but they’ll do whatever they can to keep him in New England for as long as possible.

Prediction: Accept

18. LB Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions

As with Gibbs, there was some derision in the direction of the Lions after they drafted Jack Campbell, an off-ball linebacker, with the No. 18 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Leaving the first round with a running back and linebacker, two of the lesser-valued positions on the NFL’s positional spectrum, was seen as a miss on draft night. But both Gibbs and Campbell have gone on to become important members of the Lions’ roster.

Campbell was given the green dot for the Lions ahead of the 2025 NFL season, a sign of his growth and leadership within Detroit’s defense, and the former Iowa Hawkeye rewarded the team’s decision with the best season of his career. Campbell notched a 90.2 PFF grade in 2025, his best yet, and set career highs in pressures (17), sacks (5), tackles (110), stops (68) — the most among linebackers — and had the lowest missed tackle rate of his career (7.1%).

He was a monster against the run, too. Campbell’s 93.0 PFF run-defense grade led all linebackers in the NFL, and his 44 run stops were also the most at the position. The Lions’ defense dealt with a lot of injuries and up-and-down play in 2025, but Campbell was ever-present while playing the best football of his career. His importance to the Lions won’t go unnoticed.

Prediction: Accept

19. DI Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Calijah Kancey’s first three seasons in the NFL have been a mixed bag. The former No. 19 pick has never graded higher than a 50.0 PFF mark, but he’s created the 25th-most tackles for loss or no gain among defensive tackles (21). He can absolutely make an impact along the Buccaneers’ defensive line, especially next to Vita Vea, but it hasn’t always looked like it works.

A big issue for that has been his ability against the run. Kancey’s 28.7 PFF run-defense grade since 2023 is the sixth-lowest among 179 interior defenders, but his 20 tackles for loss or no gain against the run are 25th. His slashing style of play suits his role as a pass-rusher, but Kancey’s 9.1% pass-rush win rate is 58th among defensive tackles. Almost 75% of Kancey’s snaps in the NFL have been pass-rushing opportunities. That’s his wheelhouse, but the results just haven’t been as efficient as the Buccaneers would like.

Injuries have played a part in his inconsistencies as well. Kancey suited up just three times in 2025 and has appeared in just 29 of 51 available regular-season games since getting drafted. As the adage goes, the best ability is availability, and Kancey hasn’t proved that he can stay on the field. It’ll be hard for the Buccaneers to trust that moving forward.

Prediction: Decline

20. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver off the board in 2023, and compared to the other three wideouts picked immediately after him, his career has really taken off. A quiet rookie season was followed by back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns, and Smith-Njigba was the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2025 after leading the league in receiving yards in the regular season.

Smith-Njigba’s 92.9 PFF grade was second among receivers in 2025, and his role in the Seahawks’ passing game helped carry the team to its first Super Bowl win since the 2013 NFL season. His 136 receptions and 1,992 receiving yards were both the second-most among receivers, as were his 3.42 yards per route run.

From a wideout who predominantly played in the slot in his first two seasons in the league, Smith-Njigba is now one of the best outside receivers in the NFL. He lined up out wide on 73.6% of his passing snaps this season compared to just 15.6% in 2024.

Since 2023, Smith-Njigba’s 3,864 receiving yards are sixth in the NFL, and his 22 receiving touchdowns are 10th. Smith-Njigba has spoken candidly about wanting to be the highest-paid receiver in the sport, and after accepting his fifth-year option, Seattle will likely oblige.

Prediction: Accept

21. WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ Quentin Johnston was the butt of a fair number of jokes after his rookie season in 2023. Johnston posted a 58.9 PFF grade as a rookie, and though he was credited with just two drops, the former TCU receiver struggled to acclimatize to NFL standards of receiving. He caught just 31.8% of his contested targets (7-of-22) and, in total, secured 38-of-65 targets for 431 yards.

Things got better for Johnston in Years 2 and 3, but he’s still looking to shed the reputation built in his rookie year. He moves fast, but lingering eyes are a little slower when it comes to trying to change the narrative. The good news is that Johnston caught 16 touchdowns in his last two seasons, tied for the seventh-most among receivers, and bumped his contested catch rate up to 47.8% in 2025.

Purely based on his production over three years, it’s harder to justify accepting Johnston’s fifth-year option if you’re the Chargers — but the development in his game has been exciting at times. Johnston has become one of the better field-stretchers in the NFL, catching 10 passes for 20 yards or more for the 12th-most deep receiving yards. He’s rounded into an important cog in the Chargers’ offense and someone who can make things happen after the catch. It’s a tentative yes, under the guise that Johnston needs to carry on growing.

Prediction: Accept

22. WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

The third of four receivers taken back-to-back in the 2023 NFL Draft, Zay Flowers was the fastest out of the gate for the Baltimore Ravens. Flowers eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season, catching 86 passes for 1,014 yards and six touchdowns on a 76.3 PFF grade. Since then, Flowers has gone from strength to strength.

His 3,368 receiving yards since 2023 are the 11th-most among wide receivers, and Flowers reached a career-high 1,211 receiving yards in 2025 despite Lamar Jackson missing four games. In each of his three seasons in the NFL, Flowers has improved his receiving yards and yards per route run. In 2025, he averaged 2.53 yards per route run, third-most among receivers in the NFL. He’s quietly been a force in the Ravens’ passing game.

Drops have been a bit of an issue for Flowers since turning pro: He’s suffered 18 in three seasons, the eighth-most at the position, but his drop rate decreased to 5.5% in 2025. A big part of Flowers’ appeal is his ability to create after the catch, and his 5.2 yards after the catch per reception rank 20th among receivers since 2023. His connection with Jackson remains integral to the Ravens, and the Baltimore front office will likely look to extend Flowers soon enough.

Prediction: Accept

23. WR Jordan Addison, MinnesotaVikings

The last of the four first-round receivers, Jordan Addison has been a nice complement to star Justin Jefferson in recent seasons. Addison has caught 178 passes for 2,425 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first three years in the NFL, and his 71.7 PFF receiving grade is 61st at the position. As good as Addison has been, his impact has waned since his rookie season.

Addison’s yards per route run dropped to 1.36 yards in 2025, the lowest of his career and 59th in the NFL. A large portion of that is due to the play of the Vikings’ quarterbacks, but Addison greatly suffered from drops in 2025. His 14.3% drop rate was the fifth-highest among receivers, and Addison had seven drops on 74 targets. Addison has been a solid No. 2 in the Vikings offense, but he’s also had several off-field incidents that could contribute to the team’s decision-making.

More specifically, Addison was suspended for the first three games of 2025 for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Though the leash will be short, the Vikings will still likely accept Addison’s fifth-year option. They need all of the help they can get on offense if they want to move forward with J.J. McCarthy under center, but time could be running out for Addison.

Prediction: Accept

24. CB Deonte Banks, New York Giants

Life in the NFL hasn’t been easy for Deonte Banks. The former Maryland Terrapin has been one of the most picked-on cornerbacks in pro football since the Giants drafted him with the No. 24 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and things have only gotten worse for Banks as the seasons have progressed.

Since 2023, Banks’ 42.4 PFF coverage grade is the third-lowest among 142 cornerbacks in the NFL. Along those lines, his 1,680 yards allowed in coverage are the 21st-most, while the 14 touchdowns given up are the eighth-most among cornerbacks. There’s just not much to cling to in the way of hope if you’re a Giants fan hoping that Banks can turn a corner. After starting his first 29 games in the NFL, Banks played a bit-part role in 2025 on just 459 snaps — down from 788 a year ago.

Banks’ ability to withstand the run has dwindled, too. He secured a 61.6 PFF run-defense grade in his rookie season, but that dropped to a 36.7 in 2025, 106th among cornerbacks. Those inconsistencies and poor performance are likely the writing on the wall for Banks.

Prediction: Decline

25. TE Dalton Kincaid, BuffaloBills

The jury is still out on Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. The No. 25 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft has been a valuable contributor to the Buffalo’s passing game. Still, injuries and a lack of consistent production have stopped him from hitting the heights of what you’d expect from a first-round tight end.

Kincaid had his most productive season as a rookie, catching 81 passes for 777 yards and three touchdowns on a 68.8 PFF grade. Since then, Kincaid has failed to play more than 13 games in a season, but has improved his PFF grade every year — culminating in an excellent 2025. Kincaid caught 48 passes for 682 yards and seven touchdowns this past season, and his 86.8 PFF grade was second among all tight ends.

His importance to the Bills’ passing game is obvious. Kincaid was a bucket-getter when the offense needed him the most, and he showed up in the 2025 postseason with nine catches for 111 yards, two touchdowns and a 92.2 PFF grade against the Broncos in the divisional round.

With Joe Brady now installed as the Bills’ new head coach, there’s a chance that Kincaid’s importance catapults in his fourth season. With his fifth-year option only worth around $8.9 million, the Bills will accept it to keep Kincaid in the building.

Prediction: Accept

26. DI Mazi Smith, New York Jets

Mazi Smith was initially drafted by the Dallas Cowboys with the No. 26 pick before being a part of the trade that sent Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys. Up until that point, Smith had mightily struggled in the NFL. In his first two seasons in the league, Smith had posted a 36.5 PFF grade, the fourth-lowest out of 167 defensive tackles.

The former Michigan Wolverine was meant to be a huge interior presence for the Cowboys, but just couldn’t catch on. His run defense in particular proved a sore point. Smith’s 30.0 PFF run-defense grade in his first two seasons was 157th, and his lack of impact and detrimental play meant that Smith was seen as a makeshift paperweight in the Williams trade. Smith only played in three games for the Jets in 2025, gaining a 38.6 PFF grade.

The Jets are short of young, talented players on the defensive line and across the defense in general. While there could be hope somewhere that a fresh start could give Smith the boost he needs, there just haven’t been any sort of signs that point toward that. The Jets will potentially address some defensive line concerns in the draft, which could push Smith even further down the pecking order.

Prediction: Decline

27. T Anton Harrison, JacksonvilleJaguars

The Jaguars drafted Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison in the back end of the first round, hoping that he could kickstart much-needed improvements for their offensive line. Harrison immediately started for the Jaguars at right tackle and hasn’t looked back since. There were some early struggles — Harrison recorded a 53.0 PFF grade in his rookie season while allowing five sacks — but that’s to be expected from a new tackle on a below-average offensive line.

Harrison’s 5.1% pressure rate given up since 2023 is the 22nd-lowest among 104 NFL tackles, and he’s improved his PFF pass-blocking grade in every season. In 2025, Harrison’s 76.7 pass-blocking grade was 20th in the league, and he yielded just one sack on 643 pass-blocking snaps.

Despite being known as a pass-protector first and foremost, Harrison’s run-blocking grades have also gotten better each season, culminating in a career-best 65.6 PFF run-blocking grade in 2025. Harrison has been a set-and-forget starter for the Jaguars.

Prediction: Accept

28. EDGE Myles Murphy, CincinnatiBengals

Unfortunately, and somewhat unfairly, Myles Murphy is one of the faces of the Bengals’ defensive issues in recent seasons. The young edge rusher was drafted with the No. 28 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and was supposed to be a part of a young revolution of the Cincinnati defense. That wave of young talent is still very much on hold.

Murphy was barely a peripheral figure in his first two seasons in the NFL, generating 35 total pressures and three sacks with just 16 defensive stops. In total, Murphy played only 657 snaps in his first two years with the Bengals, and he suited up in merely 13 games in 2024.

In 2025 alone, Murphy played 682 snaps, setting career highs in pressures (41), sacks (6) and stops (29). His 12.5% pass-rush win rate was 50th out of 124 edge rushers.

It’s an improvement, but it’s not enough for a first-round edge rusher to only be making the bare minimum amount of noise in his third season. A breakout could come for Murphy in his fourth season in the NFL, but it doesn’t feel like anything close to a certainty. With Shemar Stewart also failing to excite in his rookie campaign in 2025, a breakout feels needed more than a luxury. It might come, but the Bengals will be disappointed with Murphy’s career to date and likely decline his fifth-year option.

Prediction: Decline

29. DI Bryan Bresee, New Orleans Saints

The first three seasons of Bryan Bresee’s Saints’ career have been uneven to say the least. Bresee has flashed some ability as a high-end pass-rusher with 99 pressures and 16 sacks, but his run defense has consistently underwhelmed. Deciding on his future is going to be a tough choice for the Saints.

Through three years, Bresee’s 28.8 PFF run-defense grade is 173rd among 179 defensive tackles. Although his 46.2 run-defense grade in 2025 was a stark improvement, Bresee is a net negative against the run. His value comes as a pass-rusher, but his 30 pressures in 2025 were the fewest of his career.

There’s definitely a point to Bresee’s game. He has shown that he can slash through offensive lines to pressure opposing quarterbacks, but not as consistently as the Saints would like, and his lack of ability against the run completely neutralizes half of his game. The young defender can’t just be a one-trick pony, especially at an average rate. The Saints’ difficult call ends with them passing on Bresee’s option.

Prediction: Decline

30. EDGE Nolan Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles drafting Nolan Smith with the No. 31 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was just another reminder that sometimes the rich just get richer. Smith’s fall late in the first round was a bit of a surprise, but one that was entirely welcomed by Howie Roseman and the Eagles.

His first year was quiet. Smith played just 203 total snaps while compiling a 55.8 PFF grade, but he kicked on in his second year and was an important player in the team's run to the Super Bowl. Smith accumulated 50 pressures and 11 sacks in 2024, and his 74.0 PFF run-defense grade was 18th among all edge rushers. Smith was a force in the postseason, too, with his 19 pressures the most at the position.

Year 3 was derailed by injuries, but Smith still recorded a 14.6% pressure rate, the 31st among edge rushers, and his 71.2 PFF run-defense grade was in the top 25 at the position. He’s an integral part of the Eagles’ defense, and Philadelphia would be smart to keep him in the building.

Prediction: Accept

31. EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs drafting Felix Anudike-Uzomah with the final pick of the first round was a feel-good moment. The Super Bowl champions picked the local kid, much to the delight of the hometown crowd. But three seasons in, the goodwill feels like a distant memory.

Anudike-Uzomah missed the entire 2025 NFL season with a hamstring injury, but his performances up until that point hadn’t done much to justify the Chiefs' picking him that high. Anudike-Uzomah totaled 26 pressures and five sacks in his first two seasons with 28 total stops. His 57.6 PFF grade from 2023-24 was 101st out of 130 edge rushers.

This one feels like an easy choice for the Chiefs. A lost season in Year 3, combined with quiet showings in his first two years in the NFL, adds up to a draft miss. Anudike-Uzomah could be even further down the depth chart by the time the draft and free agency pass, and the Chiefs could even move on from him this offseason.

Prediction: Decline