Volume remains one of the strongest predictors of fantasy football production, and offensive coaching staffs play a major role in determining where that volume goes. Teams that lean heavily toward the pass create more opportunities for quarterbacks and wide receivers, while run-oriented offenses are more likely to produce valuable fantasy running backs.
One of the best ways to identify those tendencies is by examining neutral-situation playcalling. A game is considered neutral when the score is within 3 points, excluding both two-minute and four-minute situations. These snaps provide the clearest picture of a coaching staff's preferred run-pass balance without the influence of game script.
As the NFL has shifted slightly toward the run over the past three seasons, more running backs have gained access to fantasy-friendly workloads while the pool of flex-worthy wide receivers has shrunk. This article examines neutral-situation pass rates from recent seasons and projects how those tendencies could evolve in 2026.
Neutral-game pass-play rate averages from 2023-25
NFL Offenses 2025 2024 2023 Neutral-game pass-play rate 57.44% 57.30% 59.01%Pass rates could continue to decline as offenses and defenses increasingly lean on heavier personnel packages, though the recent trend may also begin to level off.
Rams head coach Sean McVay countered the league's shift toward heavier defensive personnel groupings by leaning into 13 personnel while maintaining one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses. Expect that approach to continue in 2026.