Now that the football calendar has flipped to late May, we’ve officially reached the lulls of the NFL offseason. Although game action is still nearly three months away, it’s never too early to start predicting how the year could play out.
One of the highlights of every new campaign is witnessing formerly struggling teams reaching unexpected heights. Consider the Patriots, Bears and Jaguars as poster children of that in 2025, with each thriving under a new head coach.
At least a handful of teams should follow a similar arc in 2026, with a handful of dwellers finding themselves suddenly leading the pack in their divisions. Let’s rank each of the last-place teams from a year ago based on how likely it is they can now make that jump.
1.New Orleans Saints
The Saints have struggled fairly mightily over the last two seasons, going just 11-23 and finishing last in the NFC South both times. However, that should change in a big way this year.
New Orleans has a sense of real optimism based on the development of second-year quarterback Tyler Shough, who produced the 10th-best overall PFF grade (77.1) at the position from Weeks 13-18. Moreover, the Saints should still field a strong defense under Brandon Staley, one which ranked ninth in EPA per play a season ago and returns Chase Young, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Justin Reid.
Encouragingly, the Saints made several splashes this offseason to address weaknesses by acquiring running back Travis Etienne, receiver Jordyn Tyson and guard David Edwards. Now, Kellen Moore’s group could have enough to claim its first division title since 2020 — especially given that the rest of the NFC South yet again looks uncertain.
2.Detroit Lions
In 2025, the Lions slid down the NFC North totem pole after two years in first place. Now, they could find themselves right back atop that perch.
Even though Detroit missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022, Dan Campbell’s team still notched the third-best overall PFF grade (93.3) while placing eighth in offensive success rate. The Lions’ offense will be typically potent with a core of Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell, and its injury-plagued defense should fare better with the returns of Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed.
As usual, the NFC North figures to be competitive with each of the Packers, Bears and Vikings eyeing playoff spots. But it’s tough to bet against Detroit’s talented, young nucleus — which mitigated some worries by drafting Blake Miller and Derrick Moore.
3.New York Giants
The NFC East may be a gauntlet, but the Giants should still grow in John Harbaugh’s first season.
On the heels of three straight seasons winning no more than six contests — including sitting 27th in overall PFF grade last year — New York hired the veteran Harbaugh to bring stability to the franchise. The former Ravens guide has no shortage of talent to work with on both sides of the ball, with most effort needed to better a defense that ranked 27th in EPA per play and 22nd in secondary coverage grade.
The Giants have the tough task of competing with the Eagles and Cowboys, who each look formidable going into this season. But if Jaxson Dart improves upon his 67.9 overall PFF grade — and if first-round picks Francis Mauigoa and Arvell Reese become instant playmakers — Harbaugh’s bunch could be feisty.
4.Tennessee Titans
It’s been a rough two seasons in Nashville, but the Titans could start to make their climb in 2026.
Tennessee has undergone a transformative offseason after finishing 28th in overall PFF grade last year, starting with hiring head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. General manager Mike Borgonzi hasn’t been gun-shy at any point, finding meaningful upgrades in players like Carnell Tate, John Franklin-Myers, Wan’Dale Robinson and Cor’Dale Flott.
Expecting the Titans to fend off the Texans and Jaguars to claim the AFC South feels ambitious, especially after they placed no better than 28th in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. But if Cameron Ward can make a second-year leap and the Saleh-led defense can improve, Tennessee might scratch off enough wins to get in the mix.
5.New York Jets
The Jets have major lifting to do to get back to contention, but their roster does look a bit better heading into 2026.
Aaron Glenn’s first season calling the shots didn’t go as planned, with New York notching the second-worst overall PFF grade and going 3-14. Glenn’s seat is certainly hot to avoid another cataclysmic season, and he’ll need better play from Geno Smith (58.2 PFF passing grade in 2025) to make that happen.
The good news for New York is that its 26th-ranked defense improved by adding David Bailey, Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick and D’Angelo Ponds, and Smith’s supporting cast is better after drafting Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr in the first round. It’ll be a tall task to overcome the Bills and Patriots in this division, but the Jets are capable of displaying some progress.
6.Las Vegas Raiders
First-time head coach Klint Kubiak will look to follow the precedent set by Ben Johnson and Liam Coen last year, but winning the AFC West looks pretty Herculean.
Kubiak inherits a team that was the worst in overall PFF grade and no better than 22nd in either offensive or defensive success rate. Naturally, there are still weak points at positions like receiver and interior defender, but Las Vegas has added considerable talent in 2025 like Fernando Mendoza, Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean and Treydan Stukes.
The goal for Kubiak in Year 1 will presumably be unlocking offensive synergy between talented youngsters Mendoza, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. That should naturally uncover more wins, but probably not enough to surpass the vaunted Chiefs, Broncos or Chargers.
Ashton Jeanty's PFF Grades by Week
7.Cleveland Browns
The Browns’ stellar draft patched some major weaknesses, but the team still doesn’t yet look like a player in the stacked AFC North.
Cleveland’s offense was the worst by success rate and scoring drive rate in 2025. Its receiving corps and offensive line are improved, but quarterback remains a quagmire after the group compiled the worst PFF passing grade a year ago. On the other hand, defense is an area where the Browns should feel better, but it remains to be seen how well the fourth-best unit by EPA per play will fare without Jim Schwartz.
Head coach Todd Monken has defensive personnel like Myles Garrett, Carson Schwesinger and Denzel Ward to stay in low-scoring games. But his lack of proven offensive contributors figures to have the team fall far below the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals, who all enter 2026 in the postseason hunt.
8.Arizona Cardinals
Pair a roster with tons of question marks with perhaps the NFL’s best division, and it’s tough to see a reality in which the Cardinals could go worst-to-first.
New head coach Mike LaFleur has talented offensive weapons in Trey McBride, Jeremiyah Love and Marvin Harrison Jr., but the group might finish with a below-average success rate yet again given its projected quarterback room of Jacoby Brissett (68.6 PFF passing grade) and rookie Carson Beck. Further, Arizona’s defense struggled in 2025 by tying for 20th in yards per play surrendered, and minimal work was done to rectify that side.
Perhaps LaFleur will infuse life and get the Cardinals closer to .500 than expected. Yet facing off against the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers six total times doesn’t bode amazingly.