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Ranking the most valuable non-first-round NFL Draft picks since 2016

Ranking the most valuable non-first-round NFL Draft picks since 2016
Artículo Completo 3,045 palabras
Over the last decade, selections outside of the first round have conjured a number of names who have way outplayed their draft slot. Let’s rank the 20 best such candidates, weighing a combination of draft position, cumulative performance and longevity.
Brock Purdy tops the list: The 49ers quarterback went from Mr. Irrelevant in 2022 to one of football's best signal-callers.
  • Nico Collins has become one of football's best wideouts: The 90th overall pick in 2021 ranks third in PFF receiving mark over the last three seasons, vastly outproducing where he was taken.

Estimated Reading Time:22 minutes

The NFL Draft is one of the most unique events in sports, delivering thrilling action as franchises look to morph overnight.

Inherently, the first round features the most talented players, many of whom have become the faces of the league since hearing their names called on Day 1. But teams that can locate late-round gems regularly extract even more value, setting themselves up for long-term success.

Over the last decade, selections outside of the first round have conjured a number of names who have way outplayed their draft slot. Let’s rank the 20 best such candidates, weighing a combination of draft position, cumulative performance and longevity. In other words, this ranking isn’t simply the best players picked after the 32nd overall choice.

Note: Undrafted free agents were excluded from this list.

1.QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Pick 263 in 2022

The odds of finding a franchise quarterback outside of the first round are already very slim. But landing one with the last pick in the draft is an extreme statistical anomaly — yet that’s what the 49ers pulled off when they took Purdy four years ago.

Since his debut in 2022, the former Mr. Irrelevant has gone from sleeper to outright star. Over the last four years, Purdy ranks ninth in PFF passing grade, and his 60 turnover-worthy plays are tied for the ninth-fewest. The Iowa State has been exceptional at avoiding negatives altogether, as his career pressure-to-sack ratio sits at an excellent 13.4%.

Awarded a five-year, $265 million extension last offseason, Purdy is already one of the greatest Day 3 picks in league history, presenting the 49ers with nearly unprecedented surplus value at the sport’s most paramount position.

2.T Jordan Mailata, Philadelphia Eagles

Pick 233 in 2018

The Eagles have a penchant for cultivating talent as well as any organization in football, and Mailata is the crown jewel of that. The former rugby star has rounded into one of the NFL’s best all-around tackles despite being among the last picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Mailata’s career 94.1 overall PFF grade is the third-best among tackles to play at least 4,500 snaps in the last eight seasons, and his 1.66 PFF Wins Above Replacement places 11th in that span. On top of that, Mailata has earned at least an 81.7 overall PFF grade in a staggering five straight seasons, and his 95.2 overall mark in 2024 was one of the best by a lineman in PFF history.

Most players selected this late in the draft are viewed as either depth or a flier. In Mailata’s case, he became not just a starter, but an ultimate success story and a cornerstone for the Eagles’ Super Bowl title.

3.WR Tyreek Hill

Pick 165 in 2016 by Chiefs

Several NFL players enshrined in Canton, Ohio can lay claim to being overlooked, and Hill very well may be next in line. Despite sliding until the fifth round, Hill has a resume that few can match in this era.

From 2016-23, the Chiefs and Dolphins star recorded the league’s best PFF receiving grade (94.3) among any receiver along with the second-most first downs gained (512). That culminated in five first-team All-Pro berths and a ring with Kansas City in 2023.

How much Hill has left at age 32 following a season-ending leg injury is up in the air. But what can’t be disputed is how elite his career has become, one which doesn’t reflect his draft position whatsoever.

4.QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Pick 135 in 2016

Prescott is somewhat of a polarizing figure among NFL fans, but the simple reality is that he’s become a stabilizing franchise quarterback despite being a fourth-round selection.

Across his 10 career seasons, Prescott has netted six finishes with at least an 80.0-plus overall PFF grade. On top of that, the Mississippi State product ranks sixth in PFF WAR since his debut, and his 236 big-time throws are the seventh-most.

Sure, the lack of playoff success is a detractor. But the Cowboys’ ability to turn Prescott into the team’s starter for over a decade is a success story in and of itself. Factor in how well he’s played, and it renders him one of the best late-round picks in recent memory.

5.WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Pick 179 in 2023

For the bulk of recent drafts, the Rams’ strategy to eschew first-round picks meant that the team needed to hit on late-round choices. It did more than simply that by nabbing Nacua in the fifth round.

Over the last three seasons, Nacua’s play has left him impossible to count out. The BYU alum leads the league in PFF receiving grade (95.6) and contested catches (56) while finishing second in first downs gained (224). Nacua has become a beacon of efficiency with a ludicrous 3.16 yards per route run in his career, fueled by a relentless motor — as reflected in his career average of 5.9 yards after the catch per reception.

Nacua may not possess the elite athleticism or route-running of some other top-tier receivers, but his all-around game puts him at or near the top of the positional rankings. For Los Angeles to have located that type of profile at Pick 179 is naturally worthy of recognition. Nacua’s shorter career has him a little lower on this list, but he should climb it in due time.

Nacua's Career PFF Receiving Grades

6.TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Pick 146 in 2017

The hit rate on mid-round players isn’t particularly encouraging overall. But that mantra definitely doesn’t apply to Kittle, who’s rounded into one of the league’s foremost weapons.

Kittle has been an insanely consistent player, notching at least an 84.7-plus overall PFF grade in eight straight seasons. Unsurprisingly, his 94.1 overall mark since 2017 is the best among all tight ends, and he trails only Travis Kelce in WAR during that duration.

A dynamic receiving threat as well as a plus blocker, Kittle joins Purdy as a core member of the 49ers’ success obtained with a low-profile draft pick.

7.LB Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers

Pick 70 in 2018

In addition to Purdy and Kittle, Warner is another feather in the cap of John Lynch’s numerous mid-to-late-round steals.

Despite being a third-round choice in 2018, Warner has become widely regarded as the best linebacker in the league. Over the last six seasons, the former BYU Cougar leads the position in overall PFF grade (93.0) and ties for second in WAR among his counterparts. It’s difficult to pinpoint any holes in his game given that Warner boasts a 92.3 grade or better in both coverage and run defense in that span.

Warner’s position on this list is affected by him being a third-round pick, where more talent tends to linger. Nonetheless, developing a potential Hall-of-Famer with the 70th overall selection is still remarkable.

8.WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Pick 113 in 2021

Since St. Brown was a fourth-round pick by the Lions five years ago, all he’s done is hit the ground running. Throughout his career, St. Brown trails only Nacua in PFF receiving grade (93.5), and his 358 first downs lead the league. It’s no surprise that the USC alum is also second in WAR behind just Ja’Marr Chase.

St. Brown is indubitably one of the faces’ behind the Lions’ dramatic turnaround over the last half-decade. The three-time All-Pro looks like he has no intentions of slowing down given the tear he’s on, continuing to repeatedly make teams regret passing him.

9.EDGE Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders

Pick 106 in 2019

Going from a fourth-round pick out of Eastern Michigan to one of the sport’s most feared defenders is a feat that sounds straight out of “Madden Franchise,” but it legitimately resembles Crosby’s career.

The Raiders’ Day 3 pick grades as the ninth-best edge rusher by overall PFF grade (91.3) since 2019, featuring balanced efforts against both the run and pass. Not only has Crosby played the most snaps among anyone at his position over the last six years (by over 500), but his 479 pressures are the third-most behind Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa.

In 2026, Crosby will look to return to his peak form from 2021-23, but his “down” years have still been productive. There’s no debating that Crosby has turned into a surefire steal, even if Las Vegas hasn’t been able to build a contender around him.

10. EDGE Trey Hendrickson, Baltimore Ravens

Pick 103 in 2017 by Saints

Hendrickson was part of an esteemed draft class that’s as impressive as any in recent memory, and much of that revolves around him dominating as a third-round pick.

Over the last five seasons, the former Saint and Bengal ties for 14th in overall PFF grade (90.0) and ranks 10th in WAR. There’s been almost no stopping Hendrickson in attacking the quarterback, as his 92.2 PFF pass-rush grade and 16.8% pressure rate slot no worse than sixth among his peers.

Hendrickson’s slower first two seasons, plus being chosen slightly higher than Crosby, notch him one spot below his fellow edge defender. Still, Hendrickson looks poised to continue making his draft spot look foolish — now with the Ravens after inking a four-year, $112 million deal in March.

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11. WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Pick 51 in 2019 by Titans

Whether on the Titans or Eagles (or another team soon), Brown has been unguardable throughout his seven-year tenure. Since 2019, Brown’s 93.6 PFF receiving grade is good for fourth, and his 2.64 WAR is third. Brown’s combination of speed and size has culminated in 3,061 yards after the catch as well as a stellar 97.1 career deep receiving mark.

Brown isn’t quite as high here given his second-round draft slot, but it’s still safe to say that he would go much earlier in a 2019 redraft as one of the sport’s premier wideouts.

12. RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Pick 45 in 2016 by Titans

The fact that Henry wasn’t a first-round pick given his ludicrous high school and college production is still mind-boggling, but it only renders what he’s done that much more unreal.

The Titans and Ravens great has been the sport’s best running back after breaking ground, leading all players in PFF rushing grade (95.7) and WAR (1.45) since he was drafted. Unsurprisingly, the physical specimen Henry tops everyone in missed tackles forced (563), and he’s remained steadily great with age by earning no worse than a 77.3 overall mark in eight straight campaigns.

Finding an otherworldly back in the second round is growing more common, as evidenced by contemporaries like Kenneth Walker, De’Von Achane and Jonathan Taylor. Still, Henry becoming the best of his generation despite not hearing his name called on Day 1 has to count for something.

13. G Joe Thuney, ChicagoBears

Pick 78 in 2016 by Patriots

Whether playing for the Patriots, Chiefs or Bears, Thuney has maintained his excellence at the guard position. Over the last 10 seasons, Thuney has accumulated the second-most WAR of any guard (2.99) while being named to five All-Pro teams. His latest accomplishment came in 2025 with Chicago, when he won the league’s inaugural Protector of the Year trophy with an elite 87.7 PFF pass-blocking grade.

Combining individual acumen with team success, Thuney has as good of a case as anyone to be the foremost guard of the last 10 years. To find that in the third round is a testament to the Patriots’ scouting and another tip of the cap to the legendary Bill Belichick.

14. C Creed Humphrey, Kansas City Chiefs

Pick 63 in 2021

The NFL has seen a slight draft boost to the center position of late, and Humphrey may have something to do with that. Despite being the penultimate pick in the second round, the Oklahoma product has become the most valuable center in the NFL since his debut. Humphrey has never failed to produce at least an 81.4 overall PFF grade in a single season, either.

Humphrey doesn’t boast the longevity of other names above him. But finding the unquestioned top player at a critical position outside of the first round deserves a shoutout, which reinforces why the Chiefs have been dynastic during this era.

15. QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Pick 53 in 2020

The list of good quarterbacks taken after the 32nd overall pick is very scant, but Hurts is another one to defy the odds in this generation. Over the last five seasons, Hurts grades as the seventh-best quarterback by overall PFF grade (91.5) and has accrued the ninth-most WAR.

Hurts remains a controversial figure due to his passing inconsistencies and limitations, but his skills as a deep-ball thrower and rusher are undeniable. In leading the Eagles to two Super Bowls and one title, Hurts has already sufficiently exceeded his expected value with the 53rd overall pick to become a quality starter over a long period.

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16. T Zach Tom, Green Bay Packers

Pick 140 in 2022

Tom still feels underappreciated among football fans, which may be fueled by him being a fourth-round pick. That hasn’t been an impediment to him realizing a terrific career.

Over the last four seasons, Tom places as the 15th-best tackle by overall PFF grade (87.0). His seven career sacks surrendered are the fifth-fewest among tackles with at least 1,500 pass-blocking snaps, and his 86.4 PFF run-blocking mark is sixth, too.

Tom isn’t quite in the same category as players like Nacua or St. Brown, but he’s still become a good, reliable tackle in a range where few are found.

17. WR Terry McLaurin, WashingtonCommanders

Pick 76 in 2019

The lone consistent force on Washington’s offense for a considerable period, McLaurin has haunted defensive coordinators throughout the bulk of his career.

Since 2019, the Ohio State alum is eighth in WAR at the position, and his 91.0 PFF receiving grade sits 14th. While his game is well-rounded, McLaurin’s best asset could be his contested catch ability — where he leads the league with 114 since 2019.

McLaurin’s slight inconsistency and injuries, coupled with his higher draft slot than Nacua and St. Brown, ding his candidacy a bit. Still, he’s returned outstanding value for the Commanders by playing his whole career in the DMV.

18. WR Nico Collins, HoustonTexans

Pick 90 in 2021

Over the last three years, Collins has reinforced the caliber of receiver he’s become. Since 2023, Collins has earned the third-best PFF receiving grade (93.0) and ranks fourth in PFF WAR (1.33) at the position. He’s dropped only 11 passes throughout his five-year career and is also a big-play threat with 213 first downs, a combination of traits that few possess.

Collins’ case is hindered by a more recent breakout, but it’s impossible to deny that he’s been worth way more than the Texans anticipated when they picked him in the late third round.

19. S Kevin Byard, New England Patriots

Pick 64 in 2016 by Titans

As it turns out, Henry wasn’t the only legendary selection made by Tennessee within the first 64 picks of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Byard has traveled throughout several organizations but has regularly played like one of the game’s elite safeties. Since 2017, the Middle Tennessee State product leads all true safeties in WAR generated and is second in overall PFF grade (92.2). Although Byard hasn’t reached an 80.0 mark since 2021, he still finished with no worse than a 72.8 mark in each of the last four years despite turning 32 years old in 2025.

Byard may no longer be the best safety in the league, and good defensive backs permeate the sport even after falling in the draft. At the same time, there’s something to be said about turning the first pick in the third round into a longtime great player at a volatile position.

20. CB D.J. Reed, Detroit Lions

Pick 142 in 2018 by 49ers

Even on a 20-name list, this last spot had several viable contenders including the likes of George Pickens, Chris Jones, Cooper DeJean, Jaylen Watson and James Conner. However, none seemed to quite match the combination of performance and draft slot that Reed brings.

Although Reed wasn’t taken until the 142nd pick in 2018, he grades as the 10th-best cornerback since 2019 among qualifiers. Reed had size (5-foot-9), team consistency and draft pick working against him, but that didn’t prevent him from notching at least a 70.0 PFF coverage grade in six straight seasons from 2019-24.

Reed will look to bounce back in his second year with the Lions after producing a career-low 65.2 overall mark on only 583 snaps. Yet Reed has gone from a fifth-round pick to a reliable, playmaking corner responsible for over $52 million in career earnings thus far — which is way more than projected for his slot.

Fuente original: Leer en Football - America
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