Sam Darnold vs. Matthew Stafford: Breaking down the third battle of the NFC West’s best

Estimated Reading Time: 6minutes

The NFC Championship game features the 14-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 12-5 Los Angeles Rams, two teams that have been the class of the conference all year. The NFC West rivals ranked first and second, respectively, in point differential during the regular season (Seattle +191, Los Angeles +172).

The Rams and Seahawks split their first two meetings this season in tightly contested games that were decided by a combined three points, with Seattle’s thrilling 38-37 overtime victory in Week 16 on the short list for the game of the year. That win helped propel the Seahawks to the NFC West crown and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as the conference's No. 1 seed.

Strong quarterback play has been at the forefront for both teams. Now, one win separates each from a Super Bowl appearance.

For the Rams, Matthew Stafford’s 2025 season is nothing short of remarkable, as he earned All-Pro honors for the first time in his career and is likely to win the MVP at 37 years old. For the Seahawks, Sam Darnold led his team to a 14-3 record one year after doing so in Minnesota, becoming only the second player in NFL history (Tom Brady) to have back-to-back 14-plus-win seasons — and the first to do it with different teams.

Stafford-Darnold makes for an intriguing quarterback showdown. Let’s take a closer look at the two veterans in terms of their similarities and differences on the field and some important factors that could ultimately decide the game.

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Similarities 

The NFL today is filled with quarterbacks who rely on their mobility — whether through scrambling or designed runs — to succeed, something for which neither Stafford nor Darnold is known. Stafford scrambled on 0.9% on his dropbacks this season, tied for the lowest mark in the league, while Darnold (2.6%, 27th) was not far behind. 

The two passers tend to want to get the ball out immediately. In terms of time to throw this season, Stafford (2.73 seconds) and Darnold (2.74) ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, among 26 quarterbacks with at least 375 dropbacks. Not surprisingly, they also each produced one of the five lowest rates of dropbacks where they were responsible for pressure, with Darnold at 8.7% and Stafford at 9.3%.

Both quarterbacks have been lethal when it comes to utilizing the play-action game this season. Darnold (90.7 PFF passing grade) and Stafford (90.3) were the top two quarterbacks in the NFL on such plays. 

The NFC Championship Game features the top two quarterbacks this season on play action passes

1 – Sam Darnold (90.7 passing grade)
2 – Matthew Stafford (90.3)#NFLPlayoffs

pic.twitter.com/2l2CwyLzmw

— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) January 21, 2026

Each quarterback had the luxury of playing with a star wide receiver this season. The Rams‘ Puka Nacua (95.8 PFF overall grade) and the Seahawks‘ Jaxon Smith-Njigba (92.8) were the two highest-graded wide receivers in 2025.

Stafford’s 95.0 PFF passing grade when kept clean is tops among quarterbacks this season, while Darnold (91.3) ranks fifth. Like most signal-callers, there was a significant drop-off for both in PFF passing grade under pressure, but these two, in particular, produced some alarming splits. Stafford’s PFF passing grade falls to 59.1 when he's under pressure. Darnold’s plummets to 50.0.

Heading into the NFC Championship game, Darnold and Stafford have an identical turnover-worthy percentage clip of 3.3%, tied for 17th among 27 qualifying quarterbacks this season. Taking care of the ball will be a key factor in Sunday’s contest.

Differences 

While both Stafford and Darnold have orchestrated their offenses at a high level all season, it’s Stafford who has shown a consistent big-play ceiling, whereas Darnold has played better in rhythm and in structure.

Including the playoffs, Stafford’s 53 big-time throws are, by far (16 more than second place), the most among quarterbacks, representing a career high for the 17-year veteran. Stafford is throwing the ball down the field more than ever, as well, evidenced by his 9.7-yard average depth of target, tied for the league lead with Lamar Jackson. 

Matthew Stafford’s 53 big-time throws (including the playoffs) are by far the most in the NFL this season

Here’s one of his patented no-look dimes from back in Week 9#RamsHouse

pic.twitter.com/lottDzUCLV

— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) January 21, 2026

While still impressive, Darnold’s metrics (31 big-time throws and an 8.7-yard average depth of target) are not quite on par with Stafford’s this season. In terms of explosive pass play rate (plays of 15-plus yards), the Rams (17.6%) and Seahawks (16.5%) rank first and fifth, respectively.

As we know, supporting casts have a big hand in quarterback success, and Darnold has benefited from being on the team with the lowest drop rate in the NFL (2.7%) this season. Stafford’s corps produced a 19th-ranked 4.8% clip. The Rams had the superior offensive line this season, finishing fourth in PFF analyst Zoltan Buday's end-of-season rankings, while Seattle slotted into the middle of the pack at 15th.

Darnold is most effective when playing in structure and managing the offense. For the season, he averaged just 30.2 dropbacks per game. The only two outings in which he had 40-plus were both against the Rams (46 in Week 11 and 42 in Week 16). It’s worth noting that Darnold produced a 47.5 PFF passing grade in those two contests when he was asked to air it out more.

Stafford is no stranger to putting his team on his back and throwing early and often, as a player who has twice led the league in pass attempts for a season and ranks in the top five all time. This season, he is averaging 37.7 dropbacks per game, a number that has increased down the stretch as the matchups have become more meaningful, all the way to 44.1 since Week 15.

Important Factors to Consider

The third iteration of Rams-Seahawks is headlined by a showdown of two players who are playing the best ball of their careers, but their paths to this moment could not be any different. Stafford was the highly touted No. 1 overall pick in 2009 and is a lock for the Hall of Fame one day, while Darnold is playing for his fourth team in four years and still trying to prove the doubters wrong after a rocky start to his career with the Jets.

While the quarterback edge certainly must favor Stafford as the presumed league MVP and PFF’s top-graded passing quarterback this season, there are some concerns on his film over the past few weeks. 

Since Week 17 against the Falcons, Stafford has been responsible for 11 turnover-worthy plays. Narrowing it down to the past three games, he has made eight turnover-worthy plays, only one of which resulted in an official turnover, suggesting he has gotten away with some dangerous play in recent weeks. It will be crucial for Stafford to take better care of the ball against one of the league’s best defenses.

Neither Stafford nor Darnold is a natural off-script creator, so the game could come down to two defenses that ranked in the top five in pressure rate this season. 

If the two previous matchups between Seattle and Los Angeles this season are any indication of what’s to come, fans should anticipate an NFC Championship classic this weekend.