New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3) [Total: 48.5]
Game Overview
The AFC playoff picture is coming into focus, and this matchup will have far-reaching implications on those final standings.
The Patriots, currently the No. 2 seed and leaders in the AFC East, are coming off a tough loss to the Bills in Week 15, one that snapped a 10-game win streak but, more importantly, turned up the heat in the division. With Buffalo in striking distance of regaining the division lead, New England can’t afford to stumble down the stretch, and this contest will prove crucial in that pursuit.
For the Ravens, the path to the postseason requires overtaking the Steelers for the AFC North crown. They hold a 40% probability of reaching the playoffs, per PFF’s simulation model, so this is do-or-die time for a team that has lost two of its past three games but still stands just one game back from Pittsburgh atop the division.
Baltimore faces a brutal schedule to close out the year and will need to handle business to force the issue of a winner-take-all game in Pittsburgh in Week 18. Any losses will necessitate outside help to stay within reach.
From a market perspective, that could pose an issue for the Ravens, who have struggled to cover games at M&T Bank Stadium, maintaining one of the lowest cover rates (25%, 2-6 against the spread) at home in the NFL. They last covered as home favorites back in October.
Conversely, the Patriots have been one of the most profitable road teams to bet this season, covering 83.3% (5-1 against the spread) of their games, including a perfect 3-0 mark against the spread when receiving points.
The path for the Ravens to win this game and cover the field-goal spread will come down to their run game. New England's ability to limit opposing running games has taken a significant hit in the back half of the season, and the defense will be without its highest-graded run defender, Robert Spillane (87.3), who has been ruled out with a knee injury.
Patriots Run-Defense Splits
Weeks 1-8Weeks 9-15+EPA%35.4% (8th)52.2% (32nd)Yards per Attempt3.3 (2nd)4.5 (24th)Explosive rushing %5.2% (4th)12.4% (29th)On the other sideline, Drake Maye and the Patriots' passing game can exploit a Ravens defense that struggles to generate pressure, ranking 31st in pressure rate (30.8%). To Maye’s credit, he is one of the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL from a clean pocket, with his 92.5 PFF overall grade ranking third among qualifiers.
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Explore Top Player PropsWR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots: Over 39.5 receiving yards (-111)
Click here to explore the PFF Player Prop Tool!Although Diggs has been quiet over the past three games, don’t count out the veteran receiver just yet. Despite lower outputs, Diggs continues to prove his savvy as a route runner, generating an open target at the eighth-highest rate among receivers this season. While the target distribution has fallen out of his favor in recent games, his consistency in creating separation should lead that production to regress to the mean.
This matchup with the Ravens poses a strong opportunity for Diggs to return to form and fill up the stat sheet. Baltimore struggles to limit production to receivers, ranking 24th in yardage allowed to the position this season. That issue has been noteworthy in recent outings, as the Ravens have allowed a receiver to eclipse 110 yards in each of the past three games.
Baltimore’s coverage unit deploys man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (34.4%). Diggs remains one of the most difficult coverage assignments in the league to stop man-to-man, having generated 2.39 yards per route run against man looks. That productivity has earned him an 87.1 PFF receiving grade versus man, a top-12 mark among receivers.