Super Bowl 60 Betting Notebook

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New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) | 45.5 Total

• After not facing many real challenges in the regular season, the Patriots‘ offense is running the gauntlet of the league’s top defenses in the postseason.
  • Regular-Season EPA/Play Allowed Ranks
    • Seahawks: 1st
    • Texans: 2nd
    • Broncos: 5th
    • Chargers: 11th
• Drake Maye led the most efficient passing offense in the NFL during the regular season, but the results haven’t been nearly as strong in the playoffs (albeit in poor weather against the Texans and in the second half against the Broncos).
  • Drake Maye | Regular Season
    • 87.8 PFF passing grade
    • 7.8% sack rate
    • 9 fumbles
  • Drake Maye | Postseason
    • 44.8 PFF passing grade
    • 14.7% sack rate
    • 6 fumbles
  • The Seahawks rank seventh in pressure rate this season (40.2%). Maye will need to do a better job of avoiding sacks and protecting the football than we’ve seen in his past three outings.
• I have some interest in sack props for Seattle's defense, given what we’ve seen from Maye and the New England offensive line in the postseason.
  • I have bets in on DeMarcus Lawrence over 0.25 sacks (+108) and Leonard Williams over 0.25 sacks (+131).
    • I have more interest in Williams because he has spent a decent amount of time lined up over the left tackle, and his length could give rookie Will Campbell (39.8 PFF pass-blocking grade in postseason) issues.
    • Maye also looks to scramble up the middle fairly often, which provides some clean-up opportunities for Williams on the interior.
• Seahawks defensive backs have earned the best average separation allowed grade of any unit in the NFL this season. They force opposing quarterbacks to either make high-degree-of-difficulty, tight-window throws to wide receivers or work underneath to tight ends and running backs.
  • The Seahawks rank second in receiving yards per game allowed to opposing wide receivers.
    • Puka Nacua is one of the only wide receivers to have found a lot of success against Seattle, as he is great at making plays through contact at the catch point and Rams quarterback Stafford is willing and able to make high-degree-of-difficulty throws.
      • I’m not sure Maye is as willing or able to make those kinds of throws consistently.
• New England’s chances will likely rest on Maye’s ability to create and make difficult throws, as the Patriots will likely be unable to get much going on the ground.
  • New England ranks 30th in rushing success rate on the season, ahead of only the Browns and Raiders.
  • Meanwhile, Seattle boasts the best run defense in the NFL by EPA allowed per play.
• I don’t have much interest in overs on New England's side, but I think Maye’s passing yardage over in the ~220-yard range makes sense based on expected volume, with the Patriots likely being in a negative game script without the ability to run the ball effectively.
• The Patriots' defense has been aggressive so far this postseason (44% blitz rate), and it’s led to success (52% pressure rate).
  • Seattle’s passing offense has generally handled the blitz well this season (fifth in passing success rate versus the blitz), with Sam Darnold averaging 8.7 yards per attempt against the blitz (second among 25 quarterbacks with 100-plus attempts).
• Seattle's defense is set up to limit New England's ground game, but the same can be said for New England's front, which has been one of the best units in the NFL stopping the run when at full strength.
  • The Patriots are allowing just 2.6 yards per run play this postseason (including penalty yardage).

• I think the most likely outcome for this game is that New England will struggle to get much going on offense and Seattle will play with a lead for much of the game.
  • The Seahawks rank fifth in the NFL in run rate when playing with a lead. They are likely to be fairly conservative on offense if they can do so.
• This isn’t a great game for SGPs built around big offensive production, in my opinion, but I’ll have something around Seattle playing from ahead (a combination of early efficiency and potential turnovers creating short field) but not sustaining long drives that chew clock.
  • This creates the potential for a high-volume — but inefficient — game from Maye.
    • If New England is moving the ball, it’s likely to be on longer drives with more attempts.
• I like something along the lines of under 45.5 for the game total, Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD, Maye 36-plus attempts and Rhamondre Stevenson five-plus receptions (55-1).
  • The Seahawks rank last in receptions per game allowed to opposing running backs. If Maye is passing the ball at a high rate, a high number of targets should get funneled to Stevenson, whom New England prefers to have on the field in passing situations over TreVeyon Henderson.
  • We get the inverse relationship between the under on the game total with a Smith-Njigba touchdown and high Maye volume.
    • I like playing this angle, given my expectation that Seattle will control a lower-scoring game.
    • Smith-Njigba is one of three wide receivers with 50-plus red-zone routes to earn a target on more than 30% of those routes, and he has decent explosive touchdown potential as Seattle's primary vertical threat.