Super Bowl 60: Seahawks-Patriots betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

Every year, sportsbooks roll out an expanded menu of Super Bowl betting markets for bettors to get lost in — everything from “Who will be crowned Super Bowl MVP?” to “What color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach?” and just about everything in between.

While it can be fun — and largely harmless — to throw a few dollars on narrative-driven props like whether the Seahawksattempt a pass from inside the Patriots’ 1-yard line, this is your reminder to bet with your head — and the data — rather than donate money to your favorite sportsbook based on storylines alone.

And that’s exactly what we aim to do here at PFF.

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs New England Patriots [Total: 45.5]

Game Overview

It’s time. The final showdown of the 2025 NFL season is here: Super Bowl 60, live from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

The matchup features the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Seattle Seahawks (14-5 ATS), against the AFC’s No. 2 seed, the New England Patriots (14-6 ATS), in a rematch of the infamous Super Bowl 49 showdown.

More data and insights on this matchup

Both teams stand above the rest in profitability this season, with each posting cover rates of 70% or better. Yet, they arrived at this point via very different paths.

For the Seahawks, the road to the NFC championship ran straight through the NFL’s toughest division, the NFC West. The division remained undecided until the final week of the regular season, when Seattle not only secured the division title but also claimed the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The job wasn’t finished there, however, as the Seahawks’ postseason path included two division rivals who tied for the second-best record in the conference. When it was all said and done, Seattle faced the 11th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.

The Patriots’ journey looked very different. During the regular season, New England faced only two teams — Pittsburgh and Buffalo (twice) — that finished with winning records, and it covered only one of those three matchups. As a result, the Patriots ended the year with the league’s 31st-ranked strength of schedule. Still, if their playoff run has taught us anything, it’s that a well-coached team like this one can overcome far more than what the regular-season résumé suggests.

That distinction matters because it provides important context for interpreting various efficiency metrics when evaluating each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

As mentioned in my early look at the spread following the conference championship round, the Seahawks excelled in all three phases of the game despite playing a difficult schedule. They became the first team since the 2016 Super Bowl champion New England Patriots to post an 84.0-plus PFF grade on offense (86.0), defense (84.5) and special teams (90.1).

New England isn’t far behind, entering this matchup with the fourth-highest overall team PFF grade (92.4). However, when accounting for the quality of competition they’ve faced, this figures to be the Patriots’ most challenging test to date.

This matchup features two of the NFL’s premier defenses, with both teams ranking in the top three in EPA allowed per play. That reality has been reflected in the betting market, with the game total opening at 47 points and quickly bet down to 45.5, where it currently sits.

Despite the move downward, the lower total has attracted public interest on the over, with roughly 73% of bets coming in on over 45.5. But even after the total dropped more than a full point, the PFF simulation model still leans toward the under, projecting a 54.8% cover probability.

The key to this matchup may ultimately come down to which defense can better control the opposing run game.

For the Patriots to be successful, slowing Seattle’s rushing attack is paramount. The Seahawks’ offense flows through the run game, as evidenced by their league-leading run play rate (47.3%) and top-10 play-action usage (28.0%). Establishing the run allows Sam Darnold to operate comfortably off play action, where he posted the second-highest yards per attempt (10.97) and explosive pass rate (26.2%) in the NFL.

That task could become significantly more difficult if linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) is less than 100%. Spillane owns the ninth-highest PFF run-defense grade among linebackers (85.8) and reaggravated his injury during the conference championship game. The Patriots’ run-defense splits without Spillane on the field are stark, making his availability and effectiveness a critical factor in this matchup.

Patriots run defense splits

On the other side of the ball, Seattle boasts the league’s best defense against designed runs, leading the NFL in EPA allowed per play while surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry. That matchup could spell trouble for a New England rushing attack that ranks just 15th in team PFF rushing grade.

If the Patriots struggle to generate consistent production on the ground, the burden will fall squarely on Drake Maye to create offense with both his arm and his legs. With the ball likely in the young quarterback’s hands at a high volume, the PFF model identifies value on the over for Maye’s passing attempts prop, currently set at 30.5.

That dynamic may also expose Maye to Seattle’s potent pass rush — a recurring issue for the young quarterback this postseason. He has been pressured on more than 13% of his dropbacks and sacked 15 times, but the most alarming figure is his 45.5% pressure-to-sack rate. That mark is nearly double that of any other quarterback this postseason.

While protection breakdowns have played a role, many of those sacks are not solely due to poor blocking. Instead, they often stem from Maye holding the ball as plays develop downfield. He has been charged with 22.4% of his sacks this season, the fifth-highest rate among quarterbacks.

Seattle is well equipped to exploit that tendency. The Seahawks generate pressure on 39.8% of dropbacks — seventh-best in the NFL — without relying heavily on the blitz, which they deploy at just a 25.9% rate (28th). That ability to win with four points to sack opportunities for key members of Seattle’s front, including DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams.

Seahawks Sack Props (DraftKings)

With Seattle’s ability to generate pressure, there’s also an increased risk of Maye putting the ball on the ground. The Patriots quarterback has struggled with ball security this postseason, having been stripped on five sacks — bringing his season total to 10 fumbles.

DeMarcus Lawrence, who has recorded a strip sack in every playoff game this postseason, looms as a prime candidate to force another turnover. He is currently priced at +1100 to record a sack-fumble, a number that reflects both opportunity and recent form.

With so much on the line for both franchises, this matchup has all the makings of a classic — and a fitting send-off for a monumental 2025 NFL season.