- New England Patriots: It may be surprising to see the Patriots on this list after they just reached Super Bowl 60. However, context matters. New England benefited from a historically easy schedule in 2025 and will face a much tougher slate in 2026 as the reigning AFC East champions.
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Making the playoffs one year is no guarantee of returning the next.
Roster turnover, cap constraints and regression can flip the NFL landscape quickly, and these three playoff teams are facing the steepest climb to get back in 2026.
Carolina Panthers
While the Panthers and quarterback Bryce Young finished the season on a high note by putting up a fight in a narrow wild-card loss to the Los Angeles Rams after being written off, most indicators suggest the team overperformed by reaching the playoffs.
Although Young played well in that postseason loss, his performance across the full season was far more inconsistent. In fact, only two of the other 13 playoff quarterbacks — Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud — earned lower PFF overall grades than Young’s 71.0 this season. Improved consistency and overall play will be required from Young for Carolina to take the next step toward true Super Bowl contention.
The Panthers benefited significantly from success in high-leverage situations in 2025. They generated 0.794 expected points added (EPA) per play on fourth-down plays, fifth in the NFL, while their 63% success rate on those attempts ranked eighth. However, on the first three downs, Carolina’s offense averaged just -0.09 EPA per play, which ranked 27th in the league and last among playoff teams.
Replicating that level of fourth-down efficiency is far from guaranteed, meaning the Panthers will need much more consistent early-down play in 2026 to sustain postseason success.
Bryce Young: Season gradesPittsburgh Steelers
If not for a last-second missed field goal by the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers wouldn’t have made the postseason in 2025, putting them as close to the playoff bubble as any team that qualified.
Combined with the uncertainty surrounding the roster and organization, Pittsburgh’s outlook for the 2026 season is far from encouraging. For the first time since 2007, the Steelers will enter a season with a new head coach, as Mike McCarthy will replace Mike Tomlin on the sideline. There is also no guarantee that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will return, and even if he does, he will be 42 years old. While Rodgers flashed at times in 2025, he finished the campaign with a 68.0 PFF grade, ranking just 29th among qualifying quarterbacks.
Recent performance is not a concern for interior defender Cameron Heyward, who led all players at his position in PFF overall grade in 2025 (90.4). However, Heyward will turn 37 before next season, and an eventual decline feels inevitable, even if it does not come in 2026. That looming reality matters given his importance as the tone-setter for Pittsburgh’s defense.
The Steelers still have a talented group of edge defenders, but the pass rush has traditionally run through former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt — something that can no longer be taken for granted. The 31-year-old finished the 2025 season with a 74.2 PFF grade — his lowest since his rookie year — ranking just third among Steelers edge defenders.
T.J. Watt: Season gradesNew England Patriots
It may be surprising to see the Patriots on this list after they just reached Super Bowl 60. However, context matters. New England benefited from a historically easy schedule in 2025 and will face a much tougher slate in 2026 as the reigning AFC East champions.
Like the Panthers, the Patriots also enjoyed an unusual level of success on fourth downs — an area that tends to regress year over year. New England’s offense posted a 74.2% success rate on fourth-down attempts, the second-highest rate in the NFL, while the defense allowed a fourth-down success rate of just 32.4%, also second-best in the league.
While it’s possible to remain above average in these situations, maintaining extremes on both sides of the ball is unlikely, making regression toward the mean in 2026 a reasonable expectation.
Health also played a role in the Patriots’ run. Although there were minor injuries to key contributors such as Will Campbell and Milton Williams, New England was relatively healthy throughout the season. Prior to the Super Bowl, the Patriots player with the most snaps on injured reserve was rookie interior defender Joshua Farmer, who logged just 224 snaps.
Offensively, the Patriots leaned heavily on Stefon Diggs, a strategy that paid dividends in 2025. Diggs led the team in receiving yards by a wide margin, and his 84.4 PFF grade ranked 10th among wide receivers. The question moving forward is whether he can replicate that level of production in 2026, when he will turn 33 during the season. If he cannot, it’s unclear where that production will come from within the current roster.
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