Fantasy football drafts are often driven by what players have done rather than what they are likely to do next. As a result, wide receivers can become overvalued when managers assume recent production will continue unchanged despite shifts in quarterback play, target competition or age-related decline.
The wide receivers featured in this article are being drafted as though they will replicate their recent production. However, there are legitimate reasons to expect a decline in fantasy output.
Malik Nabers
New York Giants · WR
WR16 PPR rankingWR Malik Nabers, New York Giants
(opens in new tab)Nabers was the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and immediately lived up to the hype. He topped 100 receiving yards in two of his first four games and scored three touchdowns during that stretch before missing two games due to injury. From Week 7 through Week 18, he averaged 16.5 PPR points per game, which ranked 12th among wide receivers.
He ranked around the 90th percentile in most situations and was targeted on 29.7% of his routes, the highest rate among the 72 wide receivers who ran at least 355 routes last season. He also led the league with 11.0 targets per game. That combination of elite volume and strong play helped him finish seventh among wide receivers in fantasy points per game. The steady stream of targets provided a reliable floor, as he scored at least 8.0 PPR points in every game he played. However, it also limited his week-winning upside. After returning from injury, he exceeded 85 receiving yards in just one game.