Malaga weather alert: amber warning for rain with flooding risk in Ronda and Axarquía

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Aemet warns of 100 litres per square metre on Wednesday, February 4, as a moisture-heavy 'river' from the Caribbean saturates already sodden ground across Andalucía

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Monday, 2 February 2026, 13:30

Malaga province is bracing for one of the most intense weather events of the 2025/2026 winter this Wednesday, 4 February.

Spain’s state meteorological agency (Aemet) has issued an orange weather warning (the equivalent of a UK amber alert) for the Serranía de Ronda, where rainfall is expected to exceed 100 litres per square metre in just 12 hours.

An 'atmospheric river' - a concentrated corridor of tropical moisture originating in the Caribbean - is set to collide with Atlantic squalls already over the peninsula. With the ground already saturated from the wettest winter since 2020, authorities are warning of a significant risk of river overflows and flash flooding.

On the same day, the Axarquia area is under a yellow alert for rainfall of 40 litres per square metre or more. Along Malaga's coastline, the warning is for coastal phenomena, with westerly winds of 50 to 60 km per hour (force 7.0) and waves up to three metres high.

100

litres per square metre of rainfall forecast for the Serranía de Ronda this Wednesday.

Aemet is warning of the arrival of fresh Atlantic squalls to the Iberian peninsula. The rain will fall on already wet land, with the ground saturated after weeks of downpours, and this adds to the risk of flooding due to rising river levels.

'Atmospheric river' on Wednesday

In addition to this, on Wednesday an 'atmospheric river' will land in Malaga. This torrent of moisture has originated in the Dominican Republic, and will bring yet more abundant rainfall.

Local weather expert José Luis Escudero (of the Tormentas y Rayos blog) describes these phenomena as "rivers in the sky". They act as high-moisture "highways" that transport water vapour from the Gulf of Mexico directly to Andalucía."

The main characteristic is sustained, heavy rainfall," says Escudero. "Because the ground is already soaked, even steady rain will cause the Guadalhorce and Benamargosa rivers to rise rapidly."

What to expect today and tomorrow

The storm's precursor has already arrived in the interior. In Archidona, wind gusts of 91 km/h and hail were recorded early Tuesday. Significant rainfall has also been logged in tother parts of the province.

By 11 o'clock this morning (Monday 2 February), over 15 litres per square metre of rain had been recorded for the Genal river in Jubrique,14 for the Guadiaro, near Cortes de la Frontera, 12 in Ojén and the Axarquía's Benamargosa river, 11 in Cuevas del Becerro and the same in Santón Pitar (Montes de Málaga hills) and ten litres at La Concepción reservoir on the Costa del Sol.

While the heaviest downpours are forecast for Wednesday, Aemet predicts that rain will persist until Sunday. Residents are advised to monitor local river levels, particularly near the La Concepción reservoir, which is expected to reach record runoff levels by the weekend.