Spain's air transport sector rules out cancellations but recommends buying tickets in advance

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The airline association's forecasts for the summer are positivie, even with an increase in seats, although there is caution due to the war in Iran

José A. González

Tuesday, 21 April 2026, 15:03

"Supply is guaranteed," is what the Spanish air transport sector has been repeating to appease concerns over fuel prices and resources this summer.

"The situation in Spain is different from that of other countries," representatives of Spanish airport operator Aena said during the press conference on forecasts for the summer season, which runs from April to October. Airlines have scheduled 258.8 million seats on flights to or from Spain, 5.7% more than in the same period last year.

The domestic sector is optimistic about the coming months, despite the "highly uncertain environment", as head of Ala (the airline association) Javier Gándara stated. Furthermore, Spain could benefit from some traffic diversion, as tourists perceive it as a safe destination compared to other markets closer to the conflict zone. The season's performance, however, will largely depend on how the geopolitical situation develops in the coming weeks.

The downside of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is that it has begun to strain fuel supply for aircraft. Following the outbreak of the war in Iran, according to Ala's calculations, the price of kerosene skyrocketed. The price per metric tonne has doubled. "Before March, the price was 700 dollars and now it's around 1,400 or 1,500," the association said.

This cost represents approximately one-third of airlines' expenses, which gives an idea of their exposure to rising fuel prices. However, in Spain and Europe, unlike in Asia and the Americas, large airlines have hedging contracts that protect them against sudden increases.

"We are in a better situation than other countries," Gándara said. He does not foresee a large number of cancellations, given that only 1.5% of flights are linked to destinations or overflights in the Middle East. "We do not foresee cancellations beyond the usual adjustments for each season," he said. He also declined to comment on specific commercial decisions, such as those adopted by Volotea, which has cancelled part of its operations and applied surcharges due to the rise in fuel prices.

Airlines operating in Spain have a significant buffer: they have between 70% and 80% of their short-term fuel demand covered, allowing them to face the summer with pre-conflict prices.

However, the sector recommends that passengers "buy their tickets as soon as possible to avoid price increases". "Looking ahead to this summer, it's advisable that passengers who haven't yet purchased their tickets do so as soon as possible, because if this situation continues, the insurance coverage will no longer be as effective. A price increase in a few months is not out of the question," Gándara stated.

Supply problems?

The main risk for the sector lies not so much in a lack of fuel as in its price. Spain starts from a relatively favourable position, since it refines between 80% and 85% of the kerosene it consumes at domestic airports and depends to a lesser extent (around 11%) on oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This allows it to guarantee supply in the short term, even in a context of strong geopolitical tension.

However, the system is not immune to a deteriorating international conflicts. Should the conflict drag on, problems in other countries, especially in tourism-generating markets like the UK, could ultimately affect tourist flows to Spain as well. The EU is already working on contingency plans, including potential mechanisms for solidarity between member states.

In parallel, Spain could even strengthen its role as a supplier, as its refineries are considering increasing production beyond domestic demand. Even so, the high volatility of crude oil prices and energy dependence keep the debate open regarding the need to accelerate the development of alternatives such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which are key to reducing exposure to crises like the current one.

So far this year, air traffic has already grown by 3.2%, pointing to a strong season ahead. Seat capacity for this summer is increasing particularly in Andalucía (+9.8%) and at airports such as Alicante (+14.1%), Madrid-Barajas (+8%), and Barcelona-El Prat (+7.6%). The Balearic Islands are also registering moderate growth (+2.6%).

The exception are the Canary Islands, where capacity has fallen by 2.5%, weighed down by declines in Tenerife Sur (-6.9%) and Tenerife Norte (-4.1%). Despite this, the sector is confident that Spain will maintain its appeal as a safe destination and continue to attract tourists from markets affected by geopolitical instability.