Costa del Sol expects a strong summer despite the uncertainty of domestic tourism

Tourism

Experts in different segments of the tourism industry agree that the positive numbers will come from international tourists, who will choose Spain for the safety it offers amid international conflicts

Pilar Martínez

Many are already counting down the days until their summer holidays. This eagerly awaited period sees June taking centre stage. The feeling within Malaga's tourism industry is positive despite the turbulent geopolitical landscape and the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Hoteliers, owners of tourist accommodations, rural guesthouses, restaurants, beach bars, travel agencies, car rental companies and parks and leisure centres agree that "expectations are better than last summer", with the 'safe haven' effect having a significant impact, leading many tourists to choose the Costa del Sol for its safety.

However, all professionals add the caveat: "pending the development of international conflicts". The key milestones this summer has to beat are 6.2 million tourists and the 8.915-billion-euro economic impact, according to data from Turismo Costa del Sol.

As has happened in previous years, the response from domestic tourism remains stagnant. The question is whether Spanish residents will book holidays within the country or abroad.

In addition, going on a holiday will cost more this year. Prices are rising again, although the increase will be less pronounced than in 2025.

In the lead-up to June, Costa del Sol hospitality experts are releasing new forecasts that improve upon previous projections. They expect a good summer and are entering the peak season with better results thanks to the boost from international tourism.

Domestic tourism, however, has yet to recover. The new outlook for the hotel sector points to an occupancy rate of almost 87% for June and nearly 84% for July. At the same time, the "declining number of domestic tourists" is a cause for concern.

The Aehcos association of Costa del Sol hoteliers has reported that May ended positively for the province of Malaga, with hotel occupancy exceeding 87.13%, representing a 1.07% increase compared to the same month in 2025.

June is set to begin slightly under the 88.14% recorded in the same period of 2025, although there is trust in last-minute bookings. The current expectations are 4% higher than those at the end of April. At that time, hoteliers projected an occupancy rate of 83.55% for June.

As for July, these are the first forecasts and, looking two months ahead, the expected occupancy is close to 84%, still 3% below the results of July 2025.

The holiday rental sector anticipates a positive summer for Malaga, both in the city and throughout the province, with a higher rate of bookings than at this time last year. Juan Cubo, president of the Andalusian tourist accommodation association (AVVA-Pro), has confirmed that the trend in Malaga city is particularly significant, especially in July and August, with increases exceeding 15% compared to last year and prices remaining virtually stable.

Cubo said that occupancy rates in the province are already hovering around 50% for the summer, with a slight improvement in the average daily rate compared to last year.

"We must remain cautious because these are still just forecasts, but the trend confirms that Malaga maintains a strong appeal and that professional tourist accommodation continues to be essential for absorbing peak demand, diversifying the offerings and generating economic activity in the area," Cubo stated.

Felix Zea, co-founder of the Ruralidays platform for countryside accommodation, anticipates a better summer in terms of both occupancy and profitability. He said that Spaniards are increasingly travelling within the country this summer. The current occupancy rate in the province is 65% for June.

"We expect to exceed 70% with last-minute bookings," he said. The main markets are the British (23.36%) and the Spanish market (19.33%), with growth rates of 19% and 21%, respectively. For July, 72% of the properties are already booked and Zea expects them to surpass 85%. This is projected to rise to 90% in August.

"That's without taking into account that Spanish customers tend to book at the last minute," Zea stated.

Manuel Villafaina, president of the beach business association has also announced his positive expectations: "It will be a good summer."

Joose Yagüe, president of the Apeco provincial association of leisure businesses and centres of the Costa del Sol, said: "Our customers are mostly tourists staying in the province. We are confident in these positive expectations from hoteliers and hope that domestic tourism will pick up."

Travel agencies have slightly conflicting expectations. Those that work in the domestic market said that the "summer is going incredibly well", while the latter have reported a slower pace of sales due to international uncertainty.

With the same optimism and with equal caution, Ana María García, president of the Aesva association of vehicle rental service companies recommends that anyone planning to book a vehicle this summer on the Costa del Sol do so well in advance.